The Modi govt shifted the burden of investing for growth from companies to the public sector. The share of government capital spending in GDP terms has doubled since 2014.
The underlying issue is that there hasn’t been enough of a structural change in the economy since the launch of reforms in 1990-91, despite per capita incomes multiplying nearly five-fold.
Corporate tax collections saw modest growth of just 1.2%, but a 20.2% rise in income tax collections helped strengthen the government's overall revenue position.
The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 report says while India will remain fastest-growing big economy, it faces risks from erratic monsoons & possible oil price spike.
RBI’s monetary policy committee voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5%, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Adds, inflation is set to ease further to 5.2% by end of financial year.
While indicators of urban demand are growing at a sharp pace, rural consumption is in slow lane. However, manufacturing, mining and construction have all seen double-digit growth.
RBI has hiked interest rates by 250 basis points since May 2022 to combat inflation. Study by central bank says growth might have been ‘sacrificed’ by 65 basis points due to this.
The sharp fall in year-on-year growth rate is also partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effects which had contributed towards higher growth figures in fiscal 2021/22.
Indian refiners are testing Venezuelan barrels again as Russian supply sinks, but analysts say volumes will remain limited due to refinery constraints & supply capacity.
This is the game every nation is now learning to play. Some are finding new allies or seeing value among nations where they’d seen marginal interest. The starkest example is India & Europe.
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