New Delhi remains optimistic on growth this year and next. A recent US trade deal may lift estimates, but uncertainty looms after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs.
The Modi govt shifted the burden of investing for growth from companies to the public sector. The share of government capital spending in GDP terms has doubled since 2014.
The underlying issue is that there hasn’t been enough of a structural change in the economy since the launch of reforms in 1990-91, despite per capita incomes multiplying nearly five-fold.
Corporate tax collections saw modest growth of just 1.2%, but a 20.2% rise in income tax collections helped strengthen the government's overall revenue position.
The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 report says while India will remain fastest-growing big economy, it faces risks from erratic monsoons & possible oil price spike.
RBI’s monetary policy committee voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5%, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Adds, inflation is set to ease further to 5.2% by end of financial year.
While indicators of urban demand are growing at a sharp pace, rural consumption is in slow lane. However, manufacturing, mining and construction have all seen double-digit growth.
RBI has hiked interest rates by 250 basis points since May 2022 to combat inflation. Study by central bank says growth might have been ‘sacrificed’ by 65 basis points due to this.
While the Russia-Ukraine war saw the BJP projecting PM Modi as a ‘vishwaguru’ who could end international conflicts, the party has made a nuanced shift in its electoral strategy vis-à-vis the West Asia war.
Report on impact of AI emergence—drawing upon depositions from several ministries—confirms that the developments come in the absence of AI laws or considerations over them.
It’s easy to understand why the government can’t speak the hard truth. When this war ends, as all wars do, India’s interests will lie with both the winner and the loser.
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