Global food prices are at the highest in more than 6 years, driven by a jump in the cost of everything because of demand from China, vulnerable supply chains and adverse weather.
Year-on-year method misses trends in prices, so month-to-month seasonal adjustment should be used. According to this, May-December avg inflation was 4.05%.
According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, food inflation declined to 3.41% in December in 2020, compared to 9.5% in November.
Inflation, highest since May 2014, rose both on account of food inflation and core inflation. Economists expect a prolonged pause in rate cuts by the RBI.
The sudden emergence of supply strains has come as a blow to the global economy which has been struggling to regain its footing after the shock of the Covid-19 lockdowns.
Focusing on core prices — which strips out volatile food & fuel costs — instead of the retail consumer prices carries the risk of under-predicting inflation.
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