The other emerging market currencies experienced a more pronounced depreciation against the dollar than the rupee in 2024, resulting in a relative appreciation effect.
A big source of uncertainty will be trade after Trump assumes office. However, within India, rural demand is likely to sustain momentum & inflation is less likely to be a big problem.
Trump's threat to impose 100% tariff on BRICS nations won't worry Indian policymakers, given that it has consistently denied any interest in replacement of US dollar as global currency.
Investors are pricing in lower taxes and new trade tariffs under the Trump administration, measures seen as inflationary which could prompt Fed to curb easing of interest rates.
Central banks can intervene in forex market to influence exchange rate. Analysis by ThePrint shows RBI has been doing this for months, but last week saw rupee fall sharply nevertheless.
In Episode 1544 of CutTheClutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta looks at some top economists pointing to the pitfalls of ‘currency nationalism’ with data from 1991 to 2004.
Rupee opened at 83.78 to US dollar compared to previous close of 83.75. Selloff in US & Asian equities following disappointing jobs report spurred worries of foreign outflows from India.
The concern is not that 2025’s rally was irrational, but that it may be difficult to repeat. Outlooks remain anchored to AI investment and growth without reigniting inflation.
If deal goes through, Greece will be 2nd foreign country to procure vehicle. Morocco was first; TATA Group has set up manufacturing unit there with minimum 30 percent indigenous content.
Many of you might think I got something so wrong in National Interest pieces written this year. I might disagree! But some deserve a Mea Culpa. I’d deal with the most recent this week.
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