In its first ever structured deal, Indian LPG companies are set to import almost 10% of their total needs from US. Trump has been pushing India to purchase more American energy.
Without a Congress revival, there can be no challenge to the BJP pan-nationally. Modi’s party is growing, and almost entirely at the cost of the Congress.
Worrisome indeed, thanks Mr Ninan for pointing it out. But this trend of individuals’ borrowing more when individual incomes haven’t grown in step, making it difficult for the borrowers’ capacity to repay loans, coming in last few years after Mr Modi came to power, points towards another disturbing possibility. Just as the Bhaktas thought that they could take police inspectors under their control by marching in huge numbers to police stations and creating mayhem there if the law-enforcing personnel did not bend to their wishes, could it be that these Bhaktas also thought that they could take similar liberties with bank managers and browbeat them into dispensing loans which otherwise the managers may not have found wise to dispense? What I am saying is, just as larger borrowers are said to have been favored if they had saffron credentials, could it be that EVEN THE INDIVIDUAL BORROWERS were also favored for similar reasons?
Frankly, it seems very plausible to me. I agree I have been critical of the BJP and Mr Modi, but going by simple logic the above looks not only very plausible to me but THE ONLY REASON for the soup-dish Mr Ninan has dished out to us. Our society is sloshing in soup. We are all in soup.
The key fact here is personal loans as a % of GDP are quite low and lowest of BRICS countries. The loans for vehicles, housing and consumer durables are being obtained by people who have a steady job as opposed to people who have lost their jobs. The savings are declining because people are making payments for the loans they have taken. Claiming that the savings are declining and loans are going up and as a result we are in danger of accumulating non-performing loans seems to be missing that crucial point. People arent making these payments out of disposable income. Rather disposable income is leftover income after making these payments. I think the author is seriously missing that point.
You write very well and clearly, unlike Bhalla in Indian Express who uses data to confuse people. Your clarity matches that of Krugman in the NYT. Congratulations.
Coming back to what you’ve written, once the euphoria of Modi’s victory passes, a lot of problems that have been festering will come out in the open. I doubt Modi has the right team to find the solutions. Time will tell.
True to an extent. But Bhalla gets bang on correct with most of his data and the projections he makes from that data.
Lol. True statement about Surjit Bhalla. Like a true one-trick pony that he is…the guy is fixated on lower interest rates being the solution for all economic problems. But i disagree on one thing that you said ‘once the euphoria of modi’s victory passes’. The lesson from this election has been that Modi will never let that pass. He is a complete political master with lots of tricks up his sleeve.
Agreed! But he’ll only be floored by the economy. If the economy improves and he takes bold steps e.g. closing down -not selling – Air India, we will need him for a long time. Otherwise he’ll be shown the door by the voters. We shall see soon. There are too many dark clouds on the economic and social horizon.
Worrisome indeed, thanks Mr Ninan for pointing it out. But this trend of individuals’ borrowing more when individual incomes haven’t grown in step, making it difficult for the borrowers’ capacity to repay loans, coming in last few years after Mr Modi came to power, points towards another disturbing possibility. Just as the Bhaktas thought that they could take police inspectors under their control by marching in huge numbers to police stations and creating mayhem there if the law-enforcing personnel did not bend to their wishes, could it be that these Bhaktas also thought that they could take similar liberties with bank managers and browbeat them into dispensing loans which otherwise the managers may not have found wise to dispense? What I am saying is, just as larger borrowers are said to have been favored if they had saffron credentials, could it be that EVEN THE INDIVIDUAL BORROWERS were also favored for similar reasons?
Frankly, it seems very plausible to me. I agree I have been critical of the BJP and Mr Modi, but going by simple logic the above looks not only very plausible to me but THE ONLY REASON for the soup-dish Mr Ninan has dished out to us. Our society is sloshing in soup. We are all in soup.
The key fact here is personal loans as a % of GDP are quite low and lowest of BRICS countries. The loans for vehicles, housing and consumer durables are being obtained by people who have a steady job as opposed to people who have lost their jobs. The savings are declining because people are making payments for the loans they have taken. Claiming that the savings are declining and loans are going up and as a result we are in danger of accumulating non-performing loans seems to be missing that crucial point. People arent making these payments out of disposable income. Rather disposable income is leftover income after making these payments. I think the author is seriously missing that point.
Who cares as long as we keep tackling terrorirsts in their den!
Whichever way one looks at it, stress is building up in the system. We know how it is released in geology …
True!
Very disturbing trend. Thanks Mr.Ninan for the timely article.
You write very well and clearly, unlike Bhalla in Indian Express who uses data to confuse people. Your clarity matches that of Krugman in the NYT. Congratulations.
Coming back to what you’ve written, once the euphoria of Modi’s victory passes, a lot of problems that have been festering will come out in the open. I doubt Modi has the right team to find the solutions. Time will tell.
True to an extent. But Bhalla gets bang on correct with most of his data and the projections he makes from that data.
Lol. True statement about Surjit Bhalla. Like a true one-trick pony that he is…the guy is fixated on lower interest rates being the solution for all economic problems. But i disagree on one thing that you said ‘once the euphoria of modi’s victory passes’. The lesson from this election has been that Modi will never let that pass. He is a complete political master with lots of tricks up his sleeve.
Agreed! But he’ll only be floored by the economy. If the economy improves and he takes bold steps e.g. closing down -not selling – Air India, we will need him for a long time. Otherwise he’ll be shown the door by the voters. We shall see soon. There are too many dark clouds on the economic and social horizon.