Even with the option of EU markets, China will have to be a significant part of India’s economic policy. But the difficult security relationship is an important complication.
Beijing is content to avoid resolution, distract with historical revisionism, and provoke through offensive rhetoric. This is hardly the posture of a country seeking peace.
Pakistan is a master of running with hares and hunting with hounds, as it did with the US from 2001 to 2021. It will carefully calibrate its proxy war to keep the pot simmering.
China’s actions fit into a broader pattern of asserting upstream control while denying others the same right. It’s less about water and more about projecting dominance.
Chinese analysis presents India’s retaliation as measured, favouring diplomatic and economic tools over military escalation. Some see it as a sign of underlying vulnerabilities.
General MM Naravane’s memoir—Four Stars of Destiny—reveals that he was left hanging by political leadership for more than two hours as Chinese tanks drove towards Indian positions.
The key to fighting a war successfully, or even launching it, is a clear objective. That’s an entirely political call. It isn’t emotional or purely military.
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