The states strike back

And the Centre is clueless because it fails to see and respect the power shift.

Congress leader and former PM Manmohan Singh | Photo: Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images

The mood on the economy is lower today than at any point in the past 10 years, barring perhaps during the crazy week of the 2004 election results when a victorious Comrade Bardhan made his Bhaad mein jaye disinvestment statement and sent the stock market tanking by over 16 per cent in a single day. Economy and market experts, whether Indian or global, are usually consistent in only one thing: being proved wrong. The current unanimity, that utterly broken politics has destroyed the India story (see the latest Economist cover) and that its unnerved reformers are on the run, is scary. But there is also one equally unanimous note of encouragement. That much of this paralysis, even backward slide, is confined to the Central government, and that things are moving in many states under smart, pragmatic chief ministers. That many states are growing way above their historic growth rates and shoring up India’s headline economic indicators.

There are two more significant facts. One, that NONE, not one of these chief ministers is from the Congress or even the UPA (with the possible exception of Sheila Dikshit though Delhi is half a state). And second, that all, and I repeat ALL of them are at odds with the Centre. You can argue with them. You cannot, however, overlook the fact that they fully believe that this Central government is not just bumbling, incompetent and weak, it is even politically partisan, unreasonable, arrogant, even cussed. The result is almost every new initiative of the Centre, from the Lokpal Bill to GST to NCTC to a clutch of economic decisions ranging from FDI in retail to mining, land acquisition and food security, is running into a wall of opposition from these formidable chief ministers. Given how effectively most of them have been able to translate their state-level popularity into seats in both houses of Parliament, their opposition counts for more than mere noise and nuisance. They now have the numbers to block anything they want in New Delhi. And they are doing it now consistently, pre-determinedly and, in many cases, illogically and unreasonably as well. Example: the BJP’s chief ministers opposing FDI in retail, GST and NCTC, ideas from their own book.

There is an alarming loss of trust between the Centre and the states at a time when federalism has more political ballast than ever in our history. Worse, there is also a loss of respect. This has rarely happened in the past. On counter-terror measures, for example, there was closer understanding and trust between the Left-run West Bengal and BJP’s New Delhi when you could not find two political formations further apart ideologically. In fact, it was much, much better than the relationship between the current UPA and its own ally Mamata Banerjee’s government in Kolkata. That is because A.B. Vajpayee reached out to other parties’ chief ministers with respect and warmth, and earned some of that in return as well. Today’s breakdown is genuinely widespread, and has spread to individual, almost personal hostility and distrust for many ministers in the Central cabinet. This is just what India does not need at this dysfunctional juncture.

Who is to blame? If federal politics is a game of give-and-take, the Centre would always need to be more large-hearted. Philosophically, this would apply even in good times when the party or the coalition that rules Delhi may also be ruling the majority of the states. But in times like these, when the Congress, by itself, controls only two, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh, of the 10 states in India sending 25 or more MPs to Lok Sabha, this no longer remains a mere nicety. It is a political compulsion. It is because the Congress has refused to even acknowledge it that the current breakdown has come about.

It is easy to figure out the whys of this. The Congress returned to power with 206 seats in 2009, believing it had already won the election of 2014 as well. And, with the BJP underlining its own decline and irrelevance with every misstep subsequently, the Congress concluded that the happy days of brute majorities were inevitably around the corner. This gave it the arrogance to treat not just chief ministers of the opposition (most of whom are ruling India’s key states) but even its own allies with arrogant disdain. Ask Sharad Pawar how the Congress has humiliated him over these two years. His word has been ignored, his policies overturned, his closest friends and interests attacked and now an upstart Congress minister is even encouraged to challenge his sway over the one thing he truly values: Indian cricket. You may believe the entire folklore on Pawar’s corruption, whispered allegations of his being the richest man in our politics, the belief on the street that he has a finger in so many corporate and real estate pies. You have the choice to not have him as your partner at the Centre, as well as in India’s most gravy-laden state, Maharashtra. But you cannot have him on board, and kick him around. You can see why he has spoken out in anger now, and will look for an opportunity to get even in 2014. Further, if this is how an ally is treated, what can political and ideological adversaries expect? As a report on the front page of this paper on February 29 told us (indianexpress.com/news/blocking-upa-style-governors-centre-stall-over-20-bills-in-bjpruled-states/ 918035/), UPA’s stooges in various Raj Bhavans have been sitting, in many cases for more than two years, on at least 20 bills passed by their state assemblies. They have no authority to do this without giving reasons. The states see the Centre as having displayed bad faith in not fully compensating them for their share of Central sales tax, so how can you trust it on moving towards a national GST and so on. Orissa is seething that its industrialisation drive has been destroyed. Uttar Pradesh has been denied clearance for landmark PPP projects, including expressways and an international airport. These chief ministers fight the Congress for power in their states, and will challenge its comeback in 2014. So the Congress party is already fighting them. And its government at the Centre does not have the confidence to rise above that politics.

Is there a way out? Can Dr Singh convince his party bosses that his government cannot deliver without a working equation with these states? That if the Centre remains dysfunctional, they can pretty much write off UPA’s prospects in 2014?

I can tell you a story from Vajpayee’s times. I had gone to see him one lazy weekend afternoon. We had already overshot our time, which was easy considering the long silences he tended to lapse into and the delightful lines he spoke in between, as if during the breaks.

He suddenly looked up and contorted his face in mock horror, asking me to buzz off as he had kept on wait somebody he really shouldn’t have.

“Who is this very important person?” I asked.

“Woh hain, Congress ke, achche honhar (promising) neta hain,” he said, walking me out.

“But who is this, Atalji, jis se aap itne ghabra rahe hain?” I persisted.

“Arre bhai wohi, dekhne mein bhi bahut achche hain (a nice looking one),” he said, running his palms over his head as if to suggest a mane or something.

Finding me still intrigued, he gestured me to look left, into his PS’s room, as we waited for the ferry car. And I did spot the Congressman, who answered both his descriptions, promising and good looking. And, of course, the mane.

Vajpayee said he was not playing politics or seeking a defection. He was reaching out to reform-minded Congress people to call a meeting of all chief ministers, irrespective of their party affiliations. He was keen that it be hosted not by a BJP state, but by S.M. Krishna who was then the reformist chief minister of Karnataka. Only if chief ministers have a consensus can reform move forward, he said.

That idea failed to find the Congress high command’s approval and that conclave never happened. But in a different scenario now, this prime minister could revive that idea. And if he wishes to get the chief ministers together, he can even call upon the services of the same nice-looking Congressman who has already lived up to his promise by rising to a cabinet ministership under him.