The TRS chief, who Modi seems to be wooing, wants to distance himself and beat the anti-Modi sentiment in some parts of the country.
Bengaluru: The K. Chandrashekar Rao-led Telangana administration may dissolve the assembly in the coming week and call for polls before the due date that is scheduled along with the Lok Sabha election in the summer of 2019.
The move is seen by KCR, who is believed to be close to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as the only way to beat the perceived anti-incumbency against the Narendra Modi government at the Centre.
Another factor is that the Congress, in disarray in the state since the 2014 bifurcation, is reportedly in talks with arch-rival Telugu Desam party (TDP) for a possible alliance.
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A snap poll, KCR believes, will deprive the opposition of time to come together.
It is speculated that the assembly of 119 members may be dissolved before 10 September, for an election date near the year-end, when Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh go to the polls too.
Thursday, 6 September, is reportedly the possible date because KCR considers the number lucky.
Modi’s man
KCR, observers say, has projected himself largely as Modi’s man, with speculation of late suggesting a possible alliance ahead of 2019.
He has never publicly criticised the Modi government, and the impression of their closeness has been bolstered by the several recent meetings between the two.
While there was talk of KCR leading a possible third front of satraps, he clarified later that he only meant to sew up a social, and not a political, front.
Modi, some estimates suggest, is no longer as invincible as he was in 2014, when the credit of the BJP’s landslide was laid solely at his door.
“A recent survey shows that there is an anti-Modi wave sweeping across Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh,” said political analyst Nagaraja Gali.
“KCR carries around the tag of being a representative of Modi. So if the elections (for Telangana assembly and the Lok Sabha) are held together, the anti-Modi factor may hurt his chances,” he added, “That is one big reason that KCR is hurrying to hold these elections.”
Fellow political observer K. Nageshwar, a professor of journalism at the Hyderabad-based Osmania University, agrees. If the Congress wins in Rajasthan and other states as the trends show now, he said, “there will be a pro-Congress wave, which will pose a threat to KCR”.
KCR seems to be trying to shrug off this pro-Modi tag — as evident in his statement Sunday at a rally that the TRS should “unite against Delhi-based forces” — but such remarks may fail to alter the impression created by his other moves.
“He has given an impression to all that his party has been soft towards Modi,” said Nageshwar.
“He has not made any statements against him and the TRS was never a part of any opposition conglomerate on any issue,” he added.
“Recently, they abstained from the no-confidence motion against the NDA government. All this is an indication that he is with the BJP at the national level,” he said.
The other reason
Experts say the pre-poll alliance said to be brewing between the TDP and the Congress may cost KCR dear.
The two parties are already in talks to thrash out a seat-sharing agreement, said a senior TDP leader who did not want to be named.
The Congress was, until 2014, a formidable force in the region. It ruled united Andhra for 10 consecutive years before the bifurcation, largely seen as an initiative of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), made it a pariah among votaries of a united Telugu people.
An alliance with the TDP will mark a big shift for both parties. The TDP, in the 1980s, won its first election on a campaign centred on the Congress’ alleged neglect of the state.
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In 1983, within a year of being set up by former cinema icon N.T. Rama Rao, the TDP had unseated the Congress from its 27-year rule.
The bigger plan
At the public rally Sunday, KCR outlined his welfare schemes and presented a progress report of his four-year government.
Under him, over 300 welfare schemes have been announced in Telangana, perhaps more than any government has in one term.
The schemes include the three flagship initiatives of his government: Ryhtu Bima (insurance for famers), Kanti velugu (eye tests for all), and a 100 per cent input subsidy (of up to Rs 1 lakh) for backward communities.
KCR, sources said, fears that if Telangana and the Lok Sabha elections are held together, he may not be able to convince people about the success of his schemes.
“If the elections are held a little early, he will be saved,” Gali said.
A senior legislator of the TRS echoed the view, saying early elections will favour KCR.
The upcoming election will be Telangana’s first after bifurcation. The 2014 April-May election season saw separate votes for Andhra and Telangana, but the bifurcation only kicked in on 2 June that year.
This election is crucial for KCR, because he sees a second consecutive victory as a push for his national ambitions.
Sources close to KCR said that if the chief minister wins this election, he will install son K.T. Rama Rao as chief minister and seek a position on the national scene.