Why Congress won’t remove Siddaramaiah despite intense heat on Karnataka CM over MUDA, Valmiki ‘scams’

Allegations against Siddaramaiah have bridged internal rifts—at least for time being—as 'party needs leader more than leader needs party,' say political observers.

File photo of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi | X/@siddaramaiah

Bengaluru: Beleaguered Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah receives unflinching support and backing from his party colleagues—loyalists, detractors and neutrals alike—as any attempt to dislodge him is likely to trigger a larger problem for the Congress party in one of its last remaining strongholds, political analysts and observers say.

Keeping aside all internal rifts for the moment, the 76-year-has unwavering support from even the likes of Deputy Chief Minister D.K.Shivakumar, who said that Siddaramaiah ‘will complete a full five-year term” as CM.

“I don’t know why everyone is pouncing on the CM. Nothing will happen to him,” Shivakumar told reporters Thursday.

In the last couple of months, almost every leader in the Congress, all the way from its national president to the party worker, has toed an unwritten line backing Siddaramaiah despite the growing allegations of graft in allotment of Mysore Urban Development Authority (MUDA) sites as well as diversion of funds from the state-run Valmiki corporation.

Political analysts say that the allegations against Siddaramaiah have bridged internal rifts—at least for the time being—as the “party needs the leader more than the leader needs the party”.

“This (backing of Siddaramaiah) appears to be part of a larger scheme and any change in leadership will lead to continuous political instability,” Bengaluru-based political analyst A.Narayana said.

Experts say that ‘rocking the boat’ in Karnataka would derail any momentum that the Congress party gained against the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Even from an optical point of view, any instability in Karnataka can look bad for the Congress as the INDIA bloc was conceived in the state. Siddaramaiah is a backward class CM and the party, against all odds, fought Modi’s poll juggernaut and dislodged the BJP in 2023, giving it more incentive to fight harder and retain the state, experts say.

‘AHINDA, Lingayats & Vokkaligas’

In May 2023, the Congress party managed to convince Shivakumar to wait a little longer to be made the chief minister and named Siddaramaiah as head of the government. The ‘arrangement’ was that Siddaramaiah would make way for Shivakumar half way through the term but this was never officially acknowledged, allowing rifts to seep deep into the Congress ranks.

Shivakumar has made no secret of his ambition to become the Karnataka CM and has asked the dominant Vokkaliga community to back him in the race.

Experts say that Shivakumar has been trying to wean away the Vokkaligas from the H.D.Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular) and be seen as the dominant community’s leader. The Congress lost all but one Vokkaliga-dominated (Hassan) seats in the Lok Sabha elections, including D.K.Shivakumar’s brother D.K.Suresh suffering a crushing defeat at the hands of the BJP-JD(S) alliance.

“If Shivakumar becomes CM, the chances of him being implicated in some cases or the other is high. Also, it is very likely that Lingayat MLAs in the Congress will not back a Vokkaliga CM,” another Bengaluru-based political analyst said.

Siddaramaiah commands the loyalty of MLAs from both Lingayats and Vokkaligas as well as others, especially the AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits), a confidence not enjoyed by Shivakumar or any other leader in Karnataka.

“No one else has the capacity nor the support that Siddaramaiah has. Who else enjoys this level of confidence?” asserted a senior Vokkaliga leader from the Congress.

Krishna Byre Gowda, a Vokkaliga leader and Karnataka’s revenue minister, in an interview to Kannada daily Vishawani, said that targeting Siddaramaiah was like “attacking” the state’s self respect, attempting to turn the opposition’s allegations into another factor to consolidate support.

Siddaramaiah, Deve Gowda, and B.S.Yediyurappa follow a similar style of politics—survival, commanding and rewarding loyalty—reaching out to communities beyond their own support structures, ability to build local coalitions, and keeping Delhi out of Karnataka.

Since 2013, Siddaramaiah has also been the face of the ‘Bhagya’ brand of welfare schemes, a precursor to the guarantees that has now become the Congress party’s main poll platform in all major state and national elections.

Threat of defections 

Political analysts say that any change in leadership can also potentially trigger a collapse due to defections or the ‘real threat’ of MLAs being poached. 

“Earlier the BJP managed to convince 17 MLAs (in 2019) to defect…so it will not be that difficult for them to take this number to 25 or 30 this time,” the second analyst said. 

Karnataka’s politics and social life has a huge influence of caste, perhaps more pronounced than other parts of the country. With dominant castes like Lingayats and Vokkaligas largely backing the BJP and JD(S) respectively, the Siddaramaiah-led Congress relies heavily on AHINDA. 

Siddaramaiah is a Kuruba, traditionally shepherds, and has used the backward classes tag to good effect. When the allegations of graft first surfaced in July, Siddaramaiah said he was being targeted because he was from the backward classes. 

Last Sunday, nearly a dozen prominent seers representing backward communities like Kurubas, Kunchitigas, Bhovi, Madiga, Madivalas among others extended support to Siddaramaiah who they believe is a target of a ‘political conspiracy’.

ಮುಡಾ ವಿಚಾರದಲ್ಲಿ ನನ್ನ ವಿರುದ್ಧ ಷಡ್ಯಂತ್ರ ರೂಪಿಸಿ, ನನ್ನನ್ನು ರಾಜಕೀಯವಾಗಿ ಮುಗಿಸಲು ಹೊರಟಿರುವ ಎದುರಾಳಿಗಳ ಕುಟಿಲ ಕಾರಸ್ಥಾನವನ್ನು ಅರ್ಥಮಾಡಿಕೊಂಡು ನೈತಿಕವಾಗಿ ನನ್ನ ಬೆಂಬಲಕ್ಕೆ ನಿಂತಿರುವ
* ಜಗದ್ಗುರು ಶ್ರೀ ನಿರಂಜನಾನಂದಪುರಿ ಮಹಾಸ್ವಾಮಿಜಿಯವರು, ಕನಕ ಪೀಠ ಕಾಗಿನೆಲೆ.
* ಜಗದ್ಗುರು ಶ್ರೀ ಶಾಂತವೀರ ಮಹಾಸ್ವಾಮಿಗಳು, ಶ್ರೀ ಜಗದ್ಗುರು… pic.twitter.com/B22EaImPj2

— Siddaramaiah (@siddaramaiah) August 25, 2024

This prompted author and political commentator Sugata Srinivasaraju to draw a parallel between Siddaramaiah and BJP veteran B.S.Yediyurappa, who also took the support of seers to shield himself from corruption allegations. 

“Is this about clutching to the last straw? #Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah who claims to be a socialist and atheist, brazenly claims the support of caste saffron on the front pages of newspapers. Exactly what BS Yediyurappa did when he was asked to step down as CM in July 2021,” Srinivasraju commented. 

The intellectual community, writers and others have also backed Siddaramaiah, drawing an equivalence that targeting the incumbent CM is targeting the entire backward classes. 

The unceremonious sacking of chief minister Veerendra Patil in 1990 by then PM Rajiv Gandhi led to the Lingayats abandoning the Congress. And, analysts now ask if the Congress will risk the possibility of gaining any moral high ground by removing Siddaramaiah on corruption charges and antagonising the entire fragmented but significant chunk of backward classes. 

“This person (Siddaramaiah) has so many years of experience. Was with me, Ramakrishna Hegde, Deve Gowda… Hegde resigned (as CM) after allegations of phone tapping. Having come up in the company of such people, is he human… he (Siddaramaiah) brings in caste, AHINDA, Harijans. Let him bring the party but instead he brings in caste,” BJP’s Ramesh Jigajinagi, a seven-time MP, told reporters to hit out at the Karnataka achief minister.

(Edited by Tony Rai)