Bengaluru: The likely release of V.K. Sasikala, trusted aide of former Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalaithaa, looks set to cause a churn in the state’s politics but also raises questions about her political future.
Having served four years in prison in a Rs 66 crore disproportionate assets case, Sasikala, according to an RTI reply, could be released by 27 January next year if her release conditions, which includes a Rs 10 crore fine, are met. Her lawyer has, however, claimed that she could be released by the end of this month on grounds of good behaviour.
The development has caused a stir in Tamil Nadu, due for polls in 2021, especially in the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
Sasikala is no longer with the party that is synonymous with Jayalalithaa and was one of the architects of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), which is led by her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran. Sasikala is the party president.
Since the news broke, however, the AIADMK is defiant, saying her release will be inconsequential.
“Even if she comes out of jail, she will not be able to contest elections for another six years as per law,” AIADMK spokesperson V. Pugazhendi, a former Sasikala loyalist, told ThePrint. “Apart from campaigning for TTV Dinakaran, she won’t be able to do much.”
“The AIADMK party cadre does not support her any more, nor will (chief minister) Edappadi K. Palaniswami or (deputy CM) O. Paneerselvam,” he added.
Another AIADMK spokesperson Kovai Satyan told ThePrint that Sasikala’s return to politics will not change the dynamics in the state. “It will only add to the chaos created by aspirating political leaders like Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth,” Sathyan said.
The AMMK leaders ThePrint spoke to are optimistic that she will enhance their poll prospects once released.
“We are ready to receive ‘chinnamma’ (as Sasikala is fondly called). We will fulfil all the demands that the court has set out for her release,” C.R. Saraswati, AMMK spokesperson, told ThePrint. “She will walk out freely and lead us to victory. Amma’s (Jayalalithaa) dreams of turning Tamil Nadu into a model state will be fulfilled by her. Nobody can stop her.”
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Importance of Sasikala
For all their dismissiveness, the AIADMK leaders will be wary of the jailed leader. For one, Sasikala’s backers say she is the rightful heir to Jayalalithaa’s political legacy, having had a three-decade long association with the former chief minister.
She was privy to all major decisions made by the former CM and also controlled most of the AIADMK’s financial dealings when Jayalalithaa was alive.
Sasikala was also the most recognisable face in the party after Jayalalithaa. She belongs to the influential Thevar community that could swing some “disgruntled” AIADMK leaders to her side.
The present situation in the AIADMK is also quite delicate.
There is a quiet power tussle brewing between Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), a former Sasikala loyalist himself, and his deputy O. Panneerselvam (OPS).
A section of disgruntled AIADMK MLAs told ThePrint that if they are sidelined by the present dispensation, they may defect and rally behind her.
“There could be a chance for her to rise like a phoenix. After all she was the one closest to our Amma (Jayalaithaa). But that only time will tell,” said a party leader who sought anonymity.
Political analysts, though, say she may not make much of a difference.
“Disgruntled elements may use her as a threat or pressure tactic to get what they want from the AIADMK. That’s all,” said the Chennai-based analyst Sumanth C. Raman. “But the AIADMK would not like to destabilise the party so close to the elections. Her photograph cannot be used during the campaign as she does not have mass following. Even her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran did not use her photo when he campaigned during the R.K. Nagar bypoll in 2017.”
Political analyst K.N. Arun said it would be premature to comment on whether Sasikala will create a political upheaval.
“Her return will have to be watched carefully. With the silent tussle between the EPS-OPS gang, we need to see how many would defect to support her,” Arun told ThePrint. “There will also be an attempt made by her MLA nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran to split the AIADMK. It may be seen as more effective after she is released.”
The once CM candidate
Soon after Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016, Sasikala made a bid for the chief minister’s post but her dreams were short lived as the Supreme Court upheld the decision of a lower court, which convicted Jayalaithaa and her under the Prevention of Corruption Act.
Jayalaithaa had passed away in December 2016 before the verdict was announced.
In the time Sasikala been in jail, Tamil Nadu’s political landscape has also changed. Palaniswami, the leader who once prostrated before Sasikala at a legislature party meeting for having picked him as the CM, has not only distanced himself from her, but also disowned all her supporters.
O. Paneerselvam, who had taken over as acting CM after Jayalaithaa’s death only to step down 62 days later, revolted against the AIADMK then led by Sasikala and created his own faction. After she was jailed, he merged his party with AIADMK in 2018 and was made deputy CM.
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