New Delhi: Assembly election results of the states of Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland have started coming in. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks to retain Nagaland and Tripura and could get to be a part of the Meghalaya government as welll if it pulls off a post-poll alliance with the National People’s Party (NPP).
These states have 60 seats each in the assembly. While Tripura went to vote on 16 February, Meghalaya and Nagaland voted on 27 February.
Early results show Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliances leading comfortably in Tripura and Nagaland while the NPP is emerging as the single largest party in Meghalaya. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s late night meeting with Meghalaya CM and NPP chief Conrad Sangma Wednesday raises hopes of the latter’s post-poll alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The two were allies in the Meghayala Democratic Alliance (MDA) government but the NPP chose to go it alone this time. The BJP contested on all 60 seats. In 2018, the NPP won 16 of the 60 seats while the Congress secured 21. However, with the help from the BJP and other small parties, the Sangma-led NPP formed the government.
For BJP, which has been in power in all three states, it is crucial to keep the momentum going by stitching a post-poll alliance in Meghalaya as well, in case of a hung assembly.
A senior party leader told ThePrint, “Initial trends have set the tone for the BJP forming the government in all the three states. We are doing very well in Nagaland. In Meghalaya, we have registered a high jump from two seats in 2018. It means that the Opposition’s campaign of the BJP being anti-minority did not get traction among the voters. The BJP’s decision to fight alone seems to have paid off. In Tripura, we were expecting a good mandate but during the campaign, there was a wave in favour of TIPRA Motha in the tribal-dominated seats. We are sure we will form the government in Tripura also. Before the crucial Karnataka assembly election, it will be a morale boost for the party cadre.”
Another central BJP leader said to ThePrint, “It’s a concern for the party if we have not performed well. But if we look at anti-incumbency and a declining IPFT, it’s a satisfactory result…there were a number of factors but we are hopeful to form the government in Tripura.”
Alliances all the way?
The NPP-BJP alliance in Meghalaya wasn’t an easy one, prompting the parties to decide to contest separately. Even during the election campaign, Union Home Minister Amit Shah called the NPP the most corrupt party ruling Meghalaya.
Meanwhile, hoping to emerge a kingmaker, Trinamool Congress’ Mukul Sangma also has high stakes in these elections. The TMC could not open its account in the last elections but emerged as the principal Opposition overnight with 12 Congress MLAs switching to it under the leadership of former CM Mukul Sangma. Mukul was the CM 2010 to 2013 and then 2013-18.
The BJP will try to stitch an alliance again in the state. In 2018, it won two seats with 9.63 per cent vote in 2018 and became a part of the MDA. The Congress has contested independently.
In Tripura, the BJP is hoping to form the government with its alliance partner Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). In 2018, the BJP and the IPFT won 36 and 8 seats respectively.
The CPM won 16 seats while the Congress drew a blank. In 2023, the CPM and the Congress fought under an ‘arrangement’. The CPM-led front has contested 47 seats with Congress fighting in 13. They came together on the plank of restoration of democracy and rule of law in state but TIPRA Motha, which has demanded a separate TIPRA land, is a major contender. The BJP tried to strike a pre-poll alliance with TIPRA Motha till the last minute, but failed.
TIPRA Motha, which won the 2018 Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District council poll with 18 of the 30 seats with its ally, is set to emerge as a kingmaker. Exit polls have predicted that TIPRA Motha will also win handsomely in tribal areas.
In Nagaland, the BJP is expecting to improve its past performance of 12 seats. There is no fissure in the alliance with Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio’s Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). The BJP is contesting on 20 seats and its partner on 40 seats. Despite church murmurings against the BJP, it is expecting to win at least 15 seats and form the government with its partner. This is an updated version of the article.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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