Modi to visit Kerala today, 2nd time in a fortnight. What makes BJP so optimistic about Kerala

Visit comes months ahead of Lok Sabha polls, as BJP ramps up efforts to woo voters of the southern state where it has never won a seat in general elections.

PM Narendra Modi's roadshow in Kerala's Thrissur on 3 January | Photo: ANI

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Kerala today on a two-day visit, in what’s said to be a part of the BJP’s strategy to open its account in the southern state where it has never won a seat in general elections. This will be his second such trip this month. 

Speaking to ThePrint, Kerala BJP leader M.T. Ramesh said that the PM will hold a “massive” roadshow in Kochi Tuesday evening, followed by puja and darshan at Guruvayur Temple Wednesday morning. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi has some keen observations and hopes from Kerala. The entire cadre is quite motivated as the PM himself is leading from the front. He will also perform puja and darshan at Thriprayar Shree Ramaswami Temple in Thrissur district,” he added.

The Thriprayar Shree Ramaswami Temple is one of the famous temples of Kerala with Hindu god Ram as its main deity. Modi’s visit comes days before the consecration ceremony of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.

According to BJP sources, the party organisation is not “very” strong in Kerala yet, “and strategically the party has decided to perform on a few seats including Thrissur”, which is one of the key areas where the party seems confident about its success.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had fielded actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi from Thrissur and recorded a 28.2 percent vote share, as against its 2014 candidate K. P. Sreesan’s 11.15 percent. 

On Wednesday, Modi will also attend the wedding ceremony of Gopi’s daughter. According to BJP sources, the party is likely to again field Gopi as its candidate from Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency, which has a sizeable Christian community. 

“We have been focussing on the women voters and they have shown a keen interest in the policies of the BJP. Apart from the PM’s roadshow, a huge women’s rally was also held in Thrissur and we got a good response on 3 January,” said a senior BJP leader. 

M.T. Ramesh, quoted earlier, said that on Wednesday, Modi will also address a state-level party conference in Kochi which will be attended by around 7,000 booth-level workers. 

The BJP has been focussing keenly on its Christian community outreach programmes by reaching out to beneficiaries of central schemes. According to the 2011 Census, 54.73 percent of Kerala’s population are Hindus, 26.56 percent are Muslims, 18.38 percent are Christians, and the remaining 0.33 percent follow other religions or no religion.

The BJP’s tally of MLAs in Kerala dropped to nil in 2021 from the lone seat it won in 2016. Contesting 115 of 140 seats in the 2021 Kerala assembly elections, it secured 11.3 percent of the total votes polled, but failed to win even a single seat. 

In contrast, the party had contested 98 seats in 2016, securing 10.53 percent of the votes and winning one seat — Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram district — while its candidates stood second in seven seats.

The BJP’s vote share in Kerala was highest in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when it managed to secure around 13 percent of the total votes polled, but fell short of getting any of its candidates elected to Parliament from the state. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) went on to win 19 of Kerala’s 20 seats that year. 

“We are focussing on 5-6 Lok Sbaha seats identified by the central leadership where the party has a greater chance of winning and special campaigns have been launched for these constituencies where it stands to gain ground,” said a party leader, not wanting to be named. 

The PM will also review booth-level preparations of the state unit and interact with local leaders ahead of the polls. The party will be focussing on ‘brand Modi’ as part of which they will highlight ‘Modi’s guarantees’, it is learnt.

Modi’s big Christian outreach

Efforts have been made to reach out to the Christian community through special programmes with the Prime Minister’s special outreach to the community made during Christmas last year too.

Last year in April, during Easter, Modi had visited the Sacred Heart Cathedral in Delhi — his first visit to an Indian church as PM.

Then on Christmas day last year, the PM hosted members of the Christian community at his residence. This outreach became significant as it coincided with the state’s special drive of visiting the homes of Christian households by the party cadre.

“Apart from banking on Gopi, who accompanied him during his roadshow, the BJP also hopes that a large section of  Christians will also vote for it and this will ensure a win easily,” the senior BJP leader quoted earlier said.

Even as the BJP has been making concerted efforts to reach out to the Christian community, the efforts of the party were marred by the Manipur violence which saw attacks on Churches and grabbed international headlines. “We have told the cadre to explain how the Manipur violence was given a religious colour by the Congress and the Left whereas it was a clash of two groups,’ he said.

Eye on Tharoor bastion

Another seat where the BJP is exploring its options is the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency, represented by Congress leader Shashi Tharoor. This seat has been the only one among the 20 Lok Sabha seats where the party had managed to come second in 2014. “This is like a ray of hope for us and in 2014, O. Rajagopal had secured 32.2 percent votes and had lost by a very narrow margin to Tharoor,” said the senior BJP leader.

The BJP is also looking at Pathanamthitta in central Kerala, which it had focussed on during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections owing to the Sabarimala protests. Anto Antony of the Congress has been winning the seat since 2009. 

Though the BJP emerged third, its vote share increased from 15.95 percent to 28.97 percent in 2014. The constituency has around 35 percent Christian voters, of whom a large number are non-Catholics, while 58 percent of the voters are Hindus. “This also explains the Christian outreach not only by the party but PM Modi too,” said the senior BJP leader quoted earlier.

Party may field Sitharaman, Jaishankar from Kerala

The BJP is also debating whether to field senior leaders including Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishanker from Kerala to boost its prospects, it is learnt. The party is also concentrating on Attingal seat in Thiruvananthapuram district. 

“The list for Kerala will surprise many and the way the PM has been focussing on the state, we can expect a list by the end of this month itself. V. Muraleedharan is also likely to contest from the state,” said a BJP source. 

(Edited by Gitanjali Das)