Karnataka floor test today: 4 likely scenarios as Kumaraswamy govt faces trust vote

BJP claims it has the support of at least 19 legislators. The floor test will decide the fate of Kumaraswamy govt.

H. D. Kumaraswamy interacting with ministers and MLAs in Vidhan Soudha | ANI

Bengaluru: The long-drawn-out political drama in Karnataka has not yet heard the last of it. The Congress-JD(S) coalition faces the floor test today.

Earlier in the day, Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy sought two more days for the vote of confidence, but Assembly Speaker Ramesh Kumar said a further delay was unlikely.

“Can’t delay the floor test at my cost,” Kumar said on the floor of the House Monday. The floor test will decide the fate of the Kumaraswamy-led Congress-JD(S) coalition government.

The Supreme Court, meanwhile, refused to hear the petition of two Independent MLAs — R. Shankar and H. Naguesh — Monday. The MLAs had sought direction from the top court to order that the floor test be held immediately. The petition is likely to be heard Tuesday.

On the other hand, the resignations of 16 rebel Congress-JD(S) MLAs are still pending before the Speaker.

The Kumaraswamy government is staring at the possibility of being reduced to a minority dispensation with the opposition BJP claiming that it has the support of at least 19 legislators, including the 16 MLAs who have resigned.

As many as 20 legislators had remained absent from the Assembly proceedings, which began on 12 July. They were absent even on 18 July when Kumaraswamy had moved a confidence motion. Kumaraswamy has claimed that he still has the numbers on his side.

What is a floor test?

Floor test is a motion called to establish whether the ruling government enjoys the support of the majority of MLAs present on the floor of the House. If the Governor feels that the government is unstable, he can ask the chief minister to call a vote of confidence or a trust vote to prove his majority in the House. In this case, however, Kumaraswamy has moved the vote of confidence on his own.

During the trust vote, some legislators may choose to remain absent or abstain from voting. In such a situation, the strength of the House is determined by the number of members present at that time in the Assembly. If the government fails to prove its majority, the CM is expected to immediately resign and make way for the party that has more MLAs supporting it.

The BJP has 105 MLAs in the House, while the coalition has 99 — the resignations of 16 rebel legislators are pending.

In the 225-member House, which includes the nominated legislator representing the Anglo-India community, if the Speaker accepts the resignations of the 16 MLAs, the strength of the House will drop to 209. The strength could further plunge to 208 if the Congress MLA from Kagwad, Shrimanth Patil, does not vote. Patil had left the resort in Bengaluru, where the other Congress MLAs were kept, and was later traced to a Mumbai hospital.

Earlier, the lone Bahujan Samaj Party MLA, N Mahesh, who had lent support to the coalition government, was asked by his party chief Mayawati to abstain from voting. But later, he was asked by the party to support the coalition government. There are speculations that Mahesh would either follow his party’s diktat or cross over to the BJP. In case, he joins the BJP and resigns as an MLA, the strength of the House will fall further to 207.

A major suspense factor ahead of the trust vote is whether Speaker Ramesh Kumar will accept the resignations.

He is expected to call a voice vote as the Karnataka Assembly does not have an electronic voting system in place. This means Kumar will ask the legislators to say aye (yes) or no. He may later also ask for a division of votes, which would mean each member individually stands up, and those for or against are physically counted.

What are the possible scenarios?

• If Kumaraswamy is unable to cobble up enough numbers to support his coalition, then his government will fall and the BJP, with its 105 MLAs and support from the two  Independent candidates, will try to stake claim to form the government.
• If Kumaraswamy wins the trust vote, he will continue to be the CM and for the next six months, no motion of confidence can be moved against the government.
• If Kumaraswamy loses the floor test, it will be up to Governor Vajubhai Vala to invite the BJP to form the government. BJP state party chief B.S. Yeddyurappa is all set to take over as the CM, if a situation arises.
• If the Governor decides that there is enough basis to invoke President’s rule in the state based on reports of horse-trading, then Karnataka could go to elections in the next six months.

‘BJP central leadership is not keen on forming govt in state yet’

Political scientist Sandeep Shastri is of the opinion that Kumaraswamy may resign just before the trust vote.

“The central government wants the present Kumaraswamy government to go on as long as it does — that’s quite clear. The BJP central leadership is not keen on forming the government in Karnataka yet. But, once the government resigns, I am not sure if they want the state BJP unit to stake claim to form the government…they may take the President’s rule route and seek fresh elections,” he explained to ThePrint.

Harish Ramaswamy, another analyst, said the developments are “clear signs that it’s a losing game with rebellion being very determined for the state”.

“It is now a wait and watch game with dampened spirits and no governance. In the long run, this will have an impact on Karnataka’s economy. Indeed it’s a bad time for the state,” he said.

Kumaraswamy’s emotional plea

On Sunday, Kumaraswamy had released an emotional letter, appealing to the rebel MLAs housed in a Mumbai hotel to attend the Assembly session and “narrate how the BJP took them away forcefully and how it “sabotaged democratic edifice and destroyed its sanctity”.

He also claimed he was not clinging onto power, but the intention of holding a debate before the trust vote was to “let the entire country know how the BJP, which talks of morality, is trying to subvert the very principles of democracy as well as Constitution”.