There are fears in the Valley that the BJP may push for a more ‘muscular’ approach to fight militancy.
New Delhi: Jammu and Kashmir looks set for “prolonged governor’s rule,” say political experts in the state, adding that the timing of the BJP’s decision to pull out of the government suggests that it may now take a more hardline approach to the security situation in the Valley.
Both opposition parties, the National Conference (NC) and Congress, have so far made it clear that they won’t support a coalition government in the state. The NC and the Congress have 15 and 12 seats respectively.
The PDP is the single largest party with 28 seats in the 87-member assembly followed by the BJP, which has 25 seats.
“The only option emerging right now is that the state is headed for a long period of governor’s rule. Governor N.N. Vohra may look for an alternative coalition but that is nearly impossible unless the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) breaks from within to support the other two opposition parties,” Valley-based political science professor Noor Ahmed Baba told ThePrint.
He added that the fall of the government has left the PDP “discredited”, but the BJP would go all out to sell its decision. “I think BJP has its own calculations. They have lost their constituency in Jammu and now they will treat Kashmir in a muscular way. With governor’s rule, the state will not have political representation and only Delhi will take decisions,” Baba said.
Poll less likely
The experts also said that given the Anantnag bypoll was delayed by a year and the fact that the panchayat polls have been deferred due to the hostile situation in the Valley, it is unlikely that elections will be held anytime soon.
Political commentator Shiekh Mushtaq said that nothing will change on the ground and that the security operations would only intensify. “The elected MLAs used to have a mild hold on security forces earlier. Now the situation will only deteriorate further,” Mushtaq told The Print.
Both Mushtaq and Baba said that the PDP was the bigger loser in the crisis. “PDP has lost its constituency. It will not be able to regain it. The BJP has preempted that part. Their decision to go with the BJP has backfired,” Baba said.
“The BJP sacrificed Mehbooba Mufti and she may not get any political mileage now,” Mushtaq added.
There are also fears the BJP may use the situation to fuel its 2019 Lok Sabha campaign. “The BJP wants to give a message outside the state. They have bigger ambitions,” said former union minister and senior Congress leader Saifuddin Soz.
PDP spokesperson Mehboob Beig said it is up to the BJP now to handle the situation in the state. “Let’s see how the Centre handles the situation. If a muscular policy is the course of action, it will never help and only cause further alienation. Our effort should be to win the hearts and minds of our own people,” Beig told The Print.