Mumbai: In January 2023, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Mumbai to inaugurate a Metro railway line, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde had set the agenda for the politics of his Shiv Sena. “We are all Modi’s men,” he had announced.
On Saturday, PM Modi will kick off the Mahayuti’s campaign for the Maharashtra polls with a rally on Shinde’s home turf Thane, sending a strong message that while Shinde may be “one of Modi’s men,” the vice-versa is also true.
The Mahayuti comprises the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
“Unlike what was earlier being said when the BJP formed the government with the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde has proven that he is not a puppet in anyone’s hands. This will be Modi’s first visit to Thane ever since October 2014. All of this gives Shinde a chance to show that while Devendra Fadnavis may be leading the Mahayuti’s election strategy, he will be the face of the poll campaign,” political analyst Abhay Deshpande told ThePrint.
Modi will be in Mumbai Saturday to inaugurate the first phase of the city’s first underground Metro corridor. He will also address a rally in Thane, where local Sena leaders are making arrangements to accommodate more than one lakh people.
“There will be a lot of project inaugurations and foundation stone laying ceremonies for works in Thane. We are still drawing up a list,” Thane MP Naresh Mhaske, a confidante of Shinde, told ThePrint.
The Thane region has been Shinde’s greatest strength having led the undivided Shiv Sena in the belt. Shinde is an MLA from Kopri Pachpakhadi and his son Shrikant is an MP from Kalyan in the Thane district, which has three parliamentary constituencies and 18 assembly seats.
‘A message to allies’
Modi’s planned rally in Thane comes at a time when there’s a power tussle underway within the three main leaders of the Mahayuti—CM Shinde, and his two deputies Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar.
There is also a massive credit war playing out among the Mahayuti allies—the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)—over the schemes launched in the last three months in the run up to the Maharashtra polls expected in November.
Both products of a vertical split in their original outfits, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP are trying to maximise their share of seats within the Mahayuti for the assembly polls.
In the Lok Sabha elections, while Shinde was able to optimise the number of seats for his party, contesting 15 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats though the BJP was initially unwilling to part with more seats. It won seven of them. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP, on the other hand, cut a sorry figure contesting just four seats and winning only one.
Party sources say, Shinde took the initiative of inviting the PM to hold a rally in Thane. But, beyond that, the fact that Modi accepted the invitation gives a major boost to Shinde’s political stock within the Mahayuti.
“By calling Modi to his constituency first before he campaigns anywhere else in Maharashtra, the CM has sent a strong message to his two allies that he remains the face of the government going into elections. Modi accepting the invitation is an endorsement of the CM’s leadership,” an MLA from the Shinde-led Shiv Sena said.
Political analyst Deshpande said, the BJP too realises the importance of having its allies by its side, especially Shinde, in this election.
“Amit Shah’s statement to BJP leaders during his Mumbai visit of working towards ‘shat-pratishat’ (100 percent) BJP in Maharashtra by 2029 also gives away the fact that the party is not confident of going it alone in 2024,” he said.
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‘Need to show allegiance to Modi’
Another reason why the Shinde-led Shiv Sena considers Modi’s rally in Thane as significant is because it is an opportunity to reiterate that their leader is working firmly in coordination with Modi, under his leadership. In other words, they say, Modi’s endorsement matters.
“Irrespective of everything, the Lok Sabha elections have shown that for the Mahayuti, Modi is still the alliance’s strongest card. He campaigning for the alliance from Thane is a chance for us to show that while we are an independent regional party, we owe allegiance to Modi,” a leader from the Shinde-led Shiv Sena said.
Party sources further said, showing allegiance to Modi also keeps open the possibility of exploring different types of political equations with the BJP.
The Mahayuti put up a dismal show in the Lok Sabha elections, winning just 17 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats as local issues in several seats weighed on its performance. The rival Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), won 30 seats, while one went to an Independent, a Congress rebel who aligned with the Aghadi.
In the Mahayuti, the BJP contested the maximum number of seats at 28, but won only nine. After the results, Fadnavis had offered to step down as the deputy CM accepting responsibility for the party’s poor performance.
Political analyst Prakash Bal said, Modi coming to campaign in Thane could also indicate a certain lingering stress between Fadnavis and the BJP leadership.
“Fadnavis is said to have told the leadership that he will work for the assembly polls but will not take ultimate responsibility for the performance. That’s also why Union Minister Amit Shah has been frequently holding meetings with the state BJP cadre,” he said.
He added, starting the Mahayuti’s campaign from Thane, which is part of the Konkan division, also indicates that the alliance is looking to fortify itself in the Konkan region, which has been a stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena, especially the Thackerays’.
The Shiv Sena (UBT), however, put up a dismal performance in the Konkan region (excluding the Mumbai districts) in the Lok Sabha elections.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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