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HomeElectionsKarnataka Assembly ElectionsHow Karnataka loss could set back BJP's ‘southern push’ for 2024 Lok...

How Karnataka loss could set back BJP’s ‘southern push’ for 2024 Lok Sabha polls

BJP’s loss in Karnataka could make Mission Telangana harder, affect its bargaining power with Tamil Nadu partner AIADMK, and give momentum to regional leaders, experts say.

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Delhi/Chennai/Hyderabad: The BJP’s failure to return to power in Karnataka could have major implications for the party’s southern push ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The setback is particularly significant given that Karnataka is the only state in southern India where the BJP has been in governance or held a dominant position.

Elsewhere in the region, it is not even the main opposition, and its influence pales in comparison to that of regional satraps such as M.K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala, K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) in Telangana, and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh.

Dr. S. Y. Surendra Kumar, a political science professor at Bangalore University, told ThePrint that the BJP now faces even more of an uphill climb in southern India, including in Telangana, which is due to go to polls at the end of the year.

“It will be more challenging now for the BJP to attract defectors from other parties in Telangana, where the party is hoping to defeat KCR,” he said.

“Regional leaders will also get momentum from the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka,” he added, pointing out that the BJP’s Hindutva agenda in any case holds limited appeal in southern states.

The Congress, on the other hand, could possibly build up steam in Telangana after its Karnataka win, Surendra Kumar noted.

Karnataka’s importance to the BJP cannot be overstated. The state has been essential not only for the BJP to demonstrate its status as an all-India party, but it is also important due to Bengaluru’s status as an IT industry and startup hub and a foreign direct investment (FDI) magnet, as well as the base for numerous large corporations.

Indeed, Bengaluru’s influence extends beyond the Indian economy, as it has a significant impact on the employment narrative and the country’s diaspora. On the political front, it also represents a ‘gateway’ to other southern states.

All this together explains why the top leadership of the BJP, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, went on a sustained campaign blitz months before Karnataka voted on 10 May.

“Winning in southern India is not only crucial for the BJP’s geographical expansion but also for establishing the narrative of the party as a pan-Indian entity,” a party general secretary told ThePrint. “It is essential for both optics and exploring new areas of growth, especially as we have reached our maximum potential in North India.”

The result, therefore, has come as a major blow to the BJP, which may see some immediate repercussions in other southern states.

The Karnataka loss is likely to negatively impact the BJP’s ability to attract leaders in Telangana. In Tamil Nadu, the loss could weaken the position of state party president K. Annamalai—  who was poll co-incharge for the party in Karnataka— and increase the leverage enjoyed by the BJP’s alliance partner, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

Here’s a look at how the Karnataka result could impact the BJP’s Lok Sabha drive in the south as well as the possible ramifications on the politics of various states in the region, where it has been trying, with limited success, to get a foothold.


Also read: BJP politics in Karnataka is letting Modi down. It’s becoming another Congress


‘Breaking the southern citadel’

South India accounts for about a fifth of Lok Sabha constituencies, or 130 out of a total of 543 seats. This count includes 28 seats in Karnataka, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 17 in Telangana, 39 in Tamil Nadu, 20 in Kerala, and one in the Union territory of Puducherry.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 21 seats from this pool of 130. It increased its tally to 29 in the 2019 polls.

The vast majority of these victories for the BJP came from Karnataka— 18 in 2004, 19 in 2009, 17 in 2014, and 25 in 2019.

What the party’s loss in the Karnataka assembly election could mean for its Lok Sabha tally in the region is up for debate.

While the outcome in Karnataka will dampen the morale of BJP cadres and also influence regional leaders who aim to curb the aggressive expansion plans of the BJP in their respective states, it is worth noting that assembly and Lok Sabha elections often revolve around different issues.

For the latter, voters sometimes cast their ballots based on national considerations, such as their support for the prime minister, rather than the ruling party in the state.

Further, the political landscape in Karnataka is quite distinct from those in other southern states.

In Karnataka, the BJP possesses not only mass leaders such as four-time chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa, but has also used the state, especially the coastal districts, as its so-called “Hindutva laboratory” in the south.

In the 1998 Lok Sabha election, the BJP, with the assistance of former chief minister Ramakrishna Hegde, managed to secure the majority of seats. In that election, 13 seats went to the BJP and three to Hegde’s party, Lok Shakti.

Since then, the BJP has steadily consolidated its position in Karnataka, on the twin planks of Hindutva and development, often called “Moditva”— although this year’s election gives pause for thought.

Other southern states, meanwhile, lack mass leaders like Yediyurappa, and the influence of Hindutva ideology remains limited.

PM Narendra Modi greets former Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa at the inauguration and laying of the foundation stone of multiple projects, in Shivamogga on 27 February. | ANI
PM Narendra Modi greets former Karnataka chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa at the inauguration and laying of the foundation stone of multiple projects, in Shivamogga on 27 February | ANI

A senior central BJP leader told ThePrint that the party was banking on five key ingredients to conquer the south for the Lok Sabha elections— “the popularity of Narendra Modi, the labharthi constituency (beneficiaries of welfare schemes), regional leaders who support the PM’s vision, Hindutva, and our election-winning organisational machinery.”

What could harm prospects, he added, was an absence of strong regional party leaders, whch he said was also partly responsible for the BJP’s defeats in Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi.

“In other southern states, from Kerala to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, we lack prominent mass leaders, as regional parties boast more prominent faces. Their beneficiary models are more effective, with leaders like KCR, Stalin, and Jagan,” he said

He acknowledged that Hindutva, too, was yet to become a major force in the south.

“Our Hindutva ideology struggles to gain acceptance in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh, despite our persistent efforts. Hindutva has gained limited traction in Telangana as well. Therefore, our path is challenging,” he said.

Nevertheless, this leader claimed that some ambitious goals had been set for the Lok Sabha elections.

“We must devise a fresh strategy with renewed vigour to secure at least five seats from Tamil Nadu, 10 seats from Telangana, over 20 seats from Karnataka, and a couple of seats from Andhra Pradesh and Kerala each,” he said.

In Telangana, there are 17 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP secured four seats, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) won nine, the Congress emerged victorious in three, and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) got the remaining one.

Another BJP general secretary told ThePrint that a conquest of the “southern citadel” could well be on the cards, since the party has trounced regional powerhouses before too.

“In 2014, we successfully broke the stronghold of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, when Amit Shah’s strategic approach became a game-changer. Additionally, our victories in Tripura, Assam, and the acquisition of 18 seats in Mamata Banerjee’s West Bengal showcased the BJP’s success in the northeastern and eastern regions consecutively. Breaking the southern citadel is our third mission, which we are aiming for in 2024,” he said.

Spotlight on Tamil Nadu’s Annamalai

In Tamil Nadu, the Karnataka election has trained the spotlight on state BJP chief K. Annamalai, known for not just his relentless targeting of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) but for also not being particularly friendly with alliance partner All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

The outcome of the Karnataka election, for which Annamalai was poll co-incharge, will impact his political positioning in Tamil Nadu, said political analyst G.C. Shekhar, speaking to ThePrint.

According to Shekhar, the DMK and its allies will use the BJP’s loss to “attack” Annamalai.

However, political analyst Priyan, who goes by a single name, told ThePrint that the Karnataka result itself was unlikely to have a great bearing on the BJP in Tamil Nadu. The most pressing issue for the party, instead, is to carve a space for itself amid the two Dravidian giants, the DMK and AIADMK, which have dominated the political scene for nearly five decades.

TN: Annamalai hits out at CM Stalin over BJP leader death
Tamil Nadu BJP state president K Annamalai. (Photo/ANI)

“The success of the BJP in Tamil Nadu depends on the failures, corruption, and misrule, if any, of the DMK, which is an ideological opponent of the BJP. The BJP’s growth will depend on DMK’s downfall,” Priyan said.

Asked about the Karnataka result, Tamil Nadu BJP vice-president Narayanan Thirupathy said that whenever the Congress comes to power next door, “there are disputes with Tamil Nadu, which is not good for the state.”

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the DMK, led by Stalin, son of late former party chief Karunanidhi, won 37 out of the 38 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP, which contested the election in alliance with the AIADMK in five seats, failed to secure a single seat. It even lost the lone seat of Kanyakumari, which it had won in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

AIADMK insiders told ThePrint that the BJP’s loss in Karnataka could provide more leeway for the AIADMK leadership to negotiate and maintain its position as the senior partner in the state.

“Annamalai’s continuous attacks on the DMK has positioned the BJP as the most aggressive opposition party, which hasn’t down well in the AIADMK. The party is waiting for a chance to assert itself,” an AIADMK leader said.


Also read: Poaching war deepens rift between BJP & AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, but parties say ‘committed to alliance’


Impact on Mission Telangana

In Telangana, the BJP currently faces a significant electoral challenge. While the KCR-led BRS holds a majority with 101 MLAs out of the total 119 seats in the assembly, the BJP has just three MLAs and four MPs.

Despite this arithmetical disadvantage, the BJP has been making steady progress in recent years, with notable victories in the 2020 Greater Hyderabad Municipal polls and a few by-elections where it defeated the powerful BRS.

However, the BJP’s wins may not necessarily indicate a huge triumph for the party, since candidate-based factors played a big role. The party’s candidates were either turncoats or had already wielded local influence.

Ravichand, from poll survey firm Peoples Pulse, told ThePrint that the BJP’s loss in Karnataka could dent the morale of state party cadres and even lead to defections.

“Some leaders who recently joined the BJP with expectations might consider leaving before the upcoming polls. The BJP’s focus will now shift towards Telangana in the southern region,” he added.

Telangana CM KCR to embark on India tour
File photo of Telangana CM K. Chandrashekar Rao | ANI

To start with, the outcome of the Karnataka elections could help two suspended leaders of the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, earlier Telangana Rashtra Samithi) make up their minds about their next steps.

Former MP Ponguleti Srinivasa Reddy and ex-minister Jupally Krishna Rao were both suspended from the BRS last month for allegedly engaging in “anti-party” activities.

Since then, both the Congress and the BJP, the main opposition parties in Telangana, have been trying to win over Rao and Reddy. Sources close to the suspended leaders told ThePrint that the two were closely observing the outcome of the Karnataka elections before making any decisions regarding their political affiliations.

Ravichand added that the BJP still had a long way to go in the state, irrespective of the Karnataka election.

The Karnataka result is unlikely to have a significant impact in Telangana because the BJP lacks a strong figurehead like Yediyurappa, and nor is there a party wave in Telangana,” explained Ravichand.

However, he said that the BJP’s loss in Karnataka would give a “solid boost” to the Congress, which has five MLAs and three MPs in Telangana. The party has been struggling to stay afloat in the state amidst the BJP’s aggressive push to take over the second position and after losing a dozen of its MLAs to the BRS after the 2018 elections.

On the BJP’s strategy for the assembly election later this year, analyst Priyan said the party had  “tested all types of agendas in Karnataka” and would likely replicate this in Telangana as well.

“There will be an attempt to defeat K. Chandrashekar Rao in Telangana itself… he has been opposing the BJP and trying to consolidate a force against the party at the national level,” he added.

This, though, is unlikely to be an easy task, despite a couple of firebrand BJP leaders trying to make their mark.

One is state party chief and Karimnagar MP Bandi Sanjay, who stands out as an ardent promoter of Hindutva ideology.

He is known for making highly polarising speeches, including statements suggesting that the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) shares an ideology similar to the Taliban and advocating for a surgical strike on Hyderabad’s Old City, which has a significant Muslim population, to remove “Pakistanis”.

His campaign in Hyderabad during the 2020 municipal polls, though, reaped results for the BJP, with the party securing 10 times more seats than it had in 2016.

Similarly, BJP MLA T. Raja Singh represents a constituency in the older part of Hyderabad, where the AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, holds considerable influence. Singh was booked by the police in March for delivering provocative speeches during religious processions and was previously banned by Facebook for engaging in hate speech.

A blanket Hindutva ideology, however, may not resonate with the entire state of Telangana, according to Ravichand.

“Certain parts of Telangana have had Naxal history, people share that ideology. A pan-state Hindutva push will not work. However, in certain districts such as Nizamabad or Karimnagar, where there is a significant Muslim population, the BJP might gain with its ideology,” he said.

With the assembly election approaching, the BJP may face challenges in attracting leaders from other parties, especially the BRS. In a core group meeting this March, Amit Shah is said to have asked Telangana leaders about the party’s inability to successfully entice more leaders from the BRS.


Also read: Why all BJP big guns, from Modi to Nadda, put weight behind Telangana chief after his arrest


 

Andhra and Kerala

The BJP’s loss in Karnataka is unlikely to have much impact in Andhra Pradesh. Neither the BJP nor the Congress has even a single seat in the state, where they struggle for relevance amidst the ruling Jagan-led YSRCP and the opposition Telugu Desam Party.

It’s a similar story in Kerala, which shares a border with Karnataka. While the BJP has invested significant resources in the state with the aim of appealing to the Christian community, it has not gained much traction.

Despite the presence of a strong RSS cadre in Kerala, the BJP’s efforts have been hindered by the absence of a charismatic leader and a solid community base. However, the party’s loss could have implications for its Hindutva strategy in Kerala.

(Edited by Asavari Singh)


Also read: Modi image, Syrian Christian base can help BJP in Kerala. But leadership crisis a spoilsport


 

 

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