Bengaluru: If the results of the Lok Sabha elections spell victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), those who voted for the party in Karnataka may have willy-nilly voted out the state government as well.
In the event of an adverse performance by the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha elections, the coalition regime could collapse under the weight of its internal contradictions and pave the way for a BJP government in the state.
Alarmingly for the Congress and the coalition, Ramesh Jarkhiholi, a powerful north Karnataka Congressman who has been hobnobbing with the BJP for months, has threatened to resign from the Assembly along with his MLA supporters. As of now, his supporters appear hesitant but the situation could quickly change if the BJP moves to bring matters to a head.
BJP leaders, from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to state bigwigs, amplified the “one vote, two governments” appeal during the last leg of its electoral campaign, laying bare the party’s design to pull down the H.D. Kumaraswamy-led JD(S)-Congress government after 23 May.
“A big change will happen in the state’s politics after 23 May,” the Prime Minister said at Bagalkot in north Karnataka last week. “The alliance government will come under immense pressure as soon as BJP gains a majority in the Lok Sabha polls.”
State BJP chief B.S.Yeddyurappa said, “There would be a serious blame game between the JD(S) and the Congress on the result of the Lok Sabha election that would pave the way for the collapse of the coalition government in the state.”
The target for the Karnataka BJP has always been two-fold — a second term for Narendra Modi, and a return to power in the state through the backdoor after destabilising the coalition government.
The party is still smarting under the humiliation of Yeddyurappa failing to prove his majority in the Assembly even after being invited by the Governor to form the government after the 2018 assembly elections. Since then, it has tried to get a few coalition MLAs to resign through its much-maligned ‘Operation Kamala’.
Also read: The biggest test for Karnataka’s Congress-JD(S) alliance is in Mandya Lok Sabha seat
Will JD(S)-Congress combine hold fort?
As it is, the JD(S)-Congress combination is surviving on a wafer-thin majority of 118 seats in the 224-member Assembly. Two sitting Congress MLAs are, however, contesting in the Bangalore North and Bidar Lok Sabha seats and if they win and choose to give up their Assembly seats, the strength of the coalition will come down to 116.
It will further reduce to 114 if the BJP wins by-elections to two Assembly constituencies due on 19 May. The bypolls are being held at Kundagol and Chincholi. In Kundagol, the sitting MLA has died while in Chincholi, Congress MLA Umesh Jadhav has resigned from the party and joined the BJP.
The BJP, on the other hand, has 104 seats and if it wins two more in the by-elections, it will require another six to hit the majority mark.
Coalition leaders, though, scoff at the speculation of the government falling.
“Yeddyurappa is obsessed about becoming the CM again even though he faced humiliation after becoming the CM for just two days and failing to prove his majority on the floor of the house,” says Siddaramaiah.
But it is not enough for the Congress-JD(S) to be dismissive.
A poor show by the JD(S)-Congress alliance is certain to set off a slanging match between the two secular parties accusing each other of sabotaging the chances of its candidates across constituencies, especially in the southern part of the state. That the alliance was on shaky ground in seats such as Mandya and Mysore was evident for all to see with the two parties working against each other at the grassroots level.
If the alliance indeed loses Mysore and Mandya, will the Congress and JD(S) leaders resist the temptation to lay the blame at the door of each other and cause the coalition to implode? Siddaramaiah, according to coalition sources, has threatened to pull out Congress support if the party were to lose Mysore.
If Siddaramaiah does that, it will prove costly for the Congress not just in Karnataka but nationally as well. The Congress is virtually non-existent in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It is only in Karnataka, and in the small state of Puducherry, that the party is in power. In Kerala, it has to wait till the 2021 Assembly elections, if at all, to bounce back to power.
The JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy too cannot absolve himself of the responsibility of preventing a backdoor entry for the BJP in Karnataka, if it has to live up to its secular suffix. After all, since he is the one who is at the helm of affairs in the state, he has the biggest stake.
What if secular alliance trumps BJP?
Conversely, if the Congress-JD(S) secures more seats than the saffron party, the BJP will have to abandon its efforts to unseat the coalition government. It could also lead to a leadership change in the state BJP.
Yeddyurappa has caused much embarrassment to the party with his tactless statements and indiscretions. A poor performance will provide an excuse to replace him as president of the state unit. At 77, he is already a candidate for a “Margdarshak Mandal” slot under BJP’s policy of denying key positions to those above 75.
With the party having little chance of gaining ground in the other four southern states, Karnataka is crucial for the BJP to retain and expand its Hindutva hold.
A setback for the BJP here will help the Congress and JD(S) consolidate their respective strengths. It will, however, be interesting to see if they will be able to harmonise their differences given that they are direct rivals in parts of the state.
Also read: Why this Karnataka seat looks set to re-elect a BJP MP it doesn’t like
Your article is not fair to Kanhaiya. Don’t forget Kanhaiya was elected JNUSU president despite his AISF not being strong enough. However, in Begusarai he has backing of strong cadre base who are re-energised under him and are leaving no lapses. His road shows are eye opener in which people from all the social strata participate in thousands and their enthusiasm is palpable. Rattled by his ability to garner support from all the strata and his ability to tear apart all caste and religious calculations, BJP and RJD have engaged themselves in digging his caste and spreading rumours that he has neither support of Bhumihar nor MY combo. Any survey videos will show you that a good proportion of Bhumihar and a significant section of muslims are in his favour. Not only this, in some areas even Yadav youth are in favour of Kanhaiya although they want to see Tejaswi as CM of Bihar. People of Begusarai are politically aware and progressive and mostly vote politically and that’s why despite being Bhumihar dominated Begusarai has been a left bastion. Kanhaiya is seen as hope for people, who feel, that if he becomes parliamentarian, he will raise their issues. Media should be fair to him. Only a foolish will come out with any prognosis but there is no gainsaying that Kanhaiya has emerged a strong contender and opponents are having sleepless nights.