New Delhi: The Congress is set to comfortably form government in Haryana, ending the Bharatiya Janata Party’s run that lasted a decade, while the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 may throw up a hung House, according to exit polls telecast Saturday.
Most exit polls predicted that Haryana is set to witness a sweep by the Congress, in a further expansion of its political footprint in the country following an improved show in the Lok Sabha polls. In June, the Congress, along with its INDIA bloc allies, denied the BJP a simple majority in Parliament.
In Haryana, nearly every pollster gave the Congress above 50 seats, while a few even predicted that the party may end up with over 60 seats in the 90-member legislative assembly. It was in 2014, after the Lok Sabha elections marked the rise of the Narendra Modi-led BJP, when the Congress led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda was dislodged from power in the northern state by the BJP.
According to C-Voter, which tied up with India Today, the Congress is likely to win 50-58 seats, while the BJP, which bagged 40 seats and formed a coalition government with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) in 2019, may have to contend with 20-28 seats. The agency has forecast that other parties and Independents may win as many as 10-14 seats.
Republic TV-Matrize has also predicted a landslide for the Congress in Haryana, giving 55-62 seats in its exit poll, and 18-24 to the BJP. Regional parties such as the JJP and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), which bank entirely on the Jat community for their political relevance, are likely to face a rout, show the exit polls.
While the INLD tied up with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ahead of the elections, the JJP struck a pre-poll alliance with the Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) led by Chandrashekhar Azad. Going by the exit polls, the attempts by these smaller alliances to dent the Congress’s vote share among Jats and Dalits have come to naught.
Elections were held in Haryana on 5 October, while in Jammu and Kashmir, which is a Union Territory, polls were held in three phases: 18 and 25 September, and 1 October.
In Jammu and Kashmir, most pollsters predicted a hung House, with a clear edge to the National Conference-Congress alliance. The BJP, which was hoping to gain that edge on the back of a commanding performance in the Jammu region after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, may not register any marked gain in its tally compared to the 2014 assembly polls.
In 2014, when Jammu and Kashmir was a state, the BJP had won 25 seats in the Jammu region, and went on to form a coalition government, which fell in 2018, with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that was the single-largest party with 28 seats.
This time, however, the PDP, most exit polls show, will find its tally more than halved. C-Voter India Today has predicted that the BJP will win seats in the range of 27-32, while the NC-Congress alliance may get up to 48 seats, or 40 seats on the lower end in the 90-member assembly. The Jammu and Kashmir assembly also has 90 seats now, requiring any party or coalition to win at least 46 seats to stake claim to form government.
Axis My India, which partnered with The Red Mike, has forecast 24-34 seats for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir, 35-45 for the NC-Congress, four to six for the PDP. Importantly, it said, others including Independents, some of whom are backed by the BJP, may win as many as eight to 23 seats in the Union Territory, holding the key to power in the event of a hung mandate.
(Edited by Tony Rai)