Data shows how Mayawati rebuff could push Congress into corner in Chhattisgarh & MP

A file photo of BSP president Mayawati | Bahujan Samaj Party/ Facebook

BJP, worried about consolidation of Dalit votes with a Congress-BSP alliance, is now less concerned and is re-strategising after Mayawati’s move to go it alone.

New Delhi: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati’s snubbing of the Congress has given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a reason to smile ahead of elections in three crucial northern states.

With the BSP deciding not to ally with the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP’s worries about the consolidation of Dalit votes has lessened to a certain extent.

The BJP was apprehensive of having alienated Dalits after sustained opposition attacks on the party over atrocities against scheduled castes in different parts of the country and amid questions over its commitment to reservations in government jobs.

The BJP has now begun re-strategising following Mayawati’s decision.

“Earlier, we were putting together a strategy to defeat a possible alliance between the Congress and the BSP. Now, we have to counter the BSP and the Congress separately,” said a senior BJP leader. “It will be easy to overpower an opposition that is divided.”

BJP leaders believe that the BSP’s decision could be a precursor to a similar split in the proposed anti-BJP alliance in Uttar Pradesh and that it has rendered the much-touted mahagathbandhan (opposition coalition) a non-starter much before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The move has also underlined the Congress’ inability to forge alliances with parties that have overlapping vote-banks.

In MP, a dent for Congress prospects

The BSP could end up playing a decisive role in Madhya Pradesh, where Dalits constitute a little over 15 per cent of the population and have 35 of the 230 assembly seats reserved for them.

The BSP’s vote share in the state has hovered around the 6-9 per cent mark. In the 2003 assembly elections, the BSP had a vote share of 7.26 per cent, which won it two MLAs in the state. In 2008, the tally of MLAs grew to 7 and the vote share to 8.97 per cent. But in 2013, both reduced – its tally fell to four seats and vote share dwindled to 6.29%.

The BSP’s significance is amplified when it is paired with the Congress. The vote share of the Congress and BSP together was 38.87 per cent in 2003, 41.36 per cent in 2008 and 42.67 per cent in 2013. All this while, the BJP formed the government in the state with a vote share that has oscillated between 42.50 per cent and 44.8 per cent.

“The Congress is weak and in no position to take on the BJP. It had slight hope if the BSP allied with it. This break up has damaged the Congress,” said Dilip Vijayvargiya, the BJP’s media in-charge. He claimed that it will hurt the Congress on at least 50 seats.

Chandrakant Naidu, a Bhopal-based veteran journalist, said the BSP has influence in the state’s Gwalior and Vindhya regions.

“In MP, the BSP doesn’t have the kind of base it has in Uttar Pradesh but it will definitely dent the Congress and benefit the BJP,” Naidu said. “The reason they broke off is that the Congress doesn’t want BSP in Rajasthan and so the BSP wanted to compensate for it in MP, which the Congress denied.”

Bigger effect in Chhattisgarh, believes BJP 

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP believes that the BSP-Chhattisgarh Janata Congress alliance has pushed the Congress to the third position and has emerged as its main challenger.

“We will benefit from the BSP-Congress breakup. There has been a tradition of two-party assembly polls in the state,” said BJP president Dharmlal Kaushik. “It used to be between the BJP and the Congress but now that Ajit Jogi has stitched up an alliance with the BSP, it will benefit us”.

In Chhattisgarh, the BSP has one MLA in the 90-member Assembly but the BJP believes that there are 8 to 10 seats, where the BSP could play spoilsport for the Congress.

The state has a Dalit population of 11.6 per cent, with 10 assembly seats reserved for SCs.

In 2003, the BSP had two MLAs in the assembly and had garnered a vote share of 4.45 per cent. Its seat tally remained the same in the 2008 elections but its vote share rose to 6.11 per cent. In 2013, its vote share dropped to 4.27 per cent.

Significantly, when paired with the Congress, the vote share of the two parties would have exceeded that of the ruling BJP on all the three occasions the latter has won in the state.

In 2003, the BSP and Congress together had a vote share of 41.16 per cent whereas the BJP had 39.26 per cent. In 2008, the Congress-BSP vote share was 44.74 per cent, while the BJP managed to win with 40.3 per cent. As for the 2013 elections, the two parties had 44.56 per cent vote share as the BJP ended up winning with 41.18 per cent of the votes.

State BJP president Kaushik also believes that the BSP-Chhattisgarh Janata Congress alliance has revived Jogi’s electoral prospects.

“When Jogi fell ill, a few of his leaders ran back to the Congress. His alliance with BSP has given him strength,” Kaushik said. “This means that votes that would have otherwise have gone to Congress will now go to this new alliance. Though we may face a challenge on a few seats where this alliance is strong, overall, the BJP will benefit from it.”