New Delhi: The BJP faces a tough task in the upcoming Chhattisgarh assembly election, judging by the Congress’s strong performance in 2018. Not only did the party win 68 out of the total 90 seats, in 30 of them it secured a vote-share of over 50 percent. In 2013, the Congress won just seven seats with such large vote-shares.
The BJP also witnessed a dramatic turn in its fortunes in Chhattisgarh, then considered its stronghold. It won just two seats with a vote-share of above 50 percent in 2018, down from 12 in 2013, suggesting that achieving its aim of dislodging the Bhupesh Baghel government could be an uphill climb.
Significantly, 19 of the 30 seats where the Congress achieved a 50 percent vote share in 2018 had been won by the BJP in 2013 when the latter secured its third consecutive term in power. Additionally, 14 of the Congress MLAs who emerged victorious with these margins in 2018 were newcomers to the assembly.
The Congress’s star performers in 2018 included Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, who won the Patan seat in Durg district with an over 50 percent vote-share for the first time— it was marginally less at 47.5 percent in 2013.
Deputy Chief Minister T.S. Deo Singh, then in the race for the CM post, also won by an over 50 percent vote-share from Surguja district’s Ambikapur, the second time he accomplished this feat from the seat.
Notably, the Congress achieved a clean sweep in the adjoining Surguja and Raigarh districts in North Chhattisgarh, winning all seven seats with over 50 percent votes.
The BJP, on the other hand, got such results in only two seats. One was Rajnandgaon, the constituency of former CM Raman Singh, and the other was Raipur South, represented by Brijmohan Agrawal.
Singh, poised to contest again from the same constituency, has won this seat by over 50 percent vote share in the last three assembly elections. In 2003 he achieved the same feat from Dongargaon seat. Agrawal secured 52.7 per cent votes in Raipur South in 2018, the lowest for him in the last four elections in terms of vote-share.
Political expert Dr. Anupama Saxena, head of department of political science at Chhattisgarh ‘s Guru Ghasidas University, told ThePrint that the Congress’s high margins in certain constituencies could have been the outcome of localised dynamics, such as regional issues and voter preferences for specific candidates.
“In the last election, it was an extraordinary sweep. They (Congress) won by a huge margin. Local factors may have come into play, but I don’t think there is a state-level factor that results in over 50 percent vote share,” she said. “In some places, people probably didn’t like the (BJP) candidate and that person got less vote-share.”
Saxena added that unseating the big winners is likely to be a task.
“For sure, the party that comes second will have to work much harder on those seats. If they change the candidate this time, it would mean that things might have been against the previous candidate, which resulted in bigger loss margins.”
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Big wins in Surguja-Raigarh & Durg division
In 2018, the Congress made major inroads in regions with substantial tribal populations, winning 25 of 29 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities.
Of these, the party won over 50 percent of the votes in all the seven seats in the northern districts of Surguja and Raigarh, both of which have a high ST population.
Per the 2011 census, tribals make up about 31 percent of the 2.55 crore population in Chhattisgarh. But in Surguja, they comprise about 55 percent and in Raigarh 34 percent.
The most prominent Congress leader in this region is TS Singh Deo, a scion of the erstwhile royal family of Surguja, who has won three back-to-back elections from Ambikapur assembly constituency.
Another region where the Congress cemented its position in the last election was western Chhattisgarh’s Durg division, comprising the five districts of Balod, Bemetara, Durg, Kabirdham, and Rajnandgaon at the time.
Of the 20 seats in these districts, the Congress clinched 17, with nine victories by over 50 percent margins.
While Raipur is the capital of the state, Durg division can be called the power centre of Chhattisgarh politics. Both Baghel and Raman Singh won their seats from this division.
Congress leader Tamradhwaj Sahu, then a CM contender and now state home minister, is another popular face from the region. He ended the BJP’s two-term streak in Durg Gramin constituency, securing over 51 percent votes.
Several senior ministers in the Congress government also won from this region, including Ravindra Chaubey (Saja), Guru Rudra Kumar (Ahiwara), Mohammad Akbar (Kawardha), and Anila Bhendia (Dondi Lahara).
Chaubey, Kumar, and Akbar won by over 50 percent vote share, with the latter two ending the BJP’s two-term dominance on their seats.
Durg’s roster of illustrious political names also includes the late former Madhya Pradesh CM Motilal Vohra (whose son Arun Vora is now Congress MLA from Durg City) and BJP Rajya Sabha MP Saroj Pandey, the former mayor of Durg Municipal Corporation.
The five districts of Durg division, combined with the Surguja-Raigarh belt, account for 16 out of the 30 seats that the Congress won with more than a 50 percent vote share.
In other noteworthy victories, Rekhchand Jain secured Jagdalpur with nearly 53 percent vote-share, marking the Congress’s first win in that seat. Similarly, in Bilaspur, Shailesh Pandey clinched victory for the Congress with a 50.5 percent vote share, unseating the three-time BJP MLA.
‘No anti-incumbency wave’
The ruling Congress in Chhattisgarh seems confident about replicating its 2018 success this year, and even improving margins.
Sushil Anand Shukla, chairman of the party’s state communications department, claimed that the key was following through on manifesto promises.
“Last time, we had promised to do all these things in the manifesto…. now we have implemented most of these things. In 2018, we got 68 seats and this time we are targeting 75,” he said. “Our margins will definitely be even better.”
BJP spokesperson Anurag Singh Deo, contender against TS Deo Singh in the last three polls, also pointed to the Congress’s manifesto as one of the reasons for its success in the last polls.
“Such an election has never happened in Chhattisgarh’s history. The BJP had been in power for 15 years, and they (Congress) had done their homework for the manifesto. It touched every small section of the society… farmers, self-help groups, chit fund investors, police etc. That was the reason for the big margins as well,” he said.
Deo, however, claimed that issues of 2018 may not be as relevant now. “You have seen how things changed in the Lok Sabha,” he said.
Political scientist Saxena says Chhattisgarh primarily votes on governance and policy in state elections rather than personalities like it did in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
According to Saxena, CM Baghel’s emphasis on “Chhattisgarhi identity” has also worked in his favour, other than welfare schemes for many sections of society.
“In Chhattisgarh, good governance and citizen centric schemes play a very important role in elections. Caste is a factor, but both parties maintain a caste balance,” she said.
Saxena added that Chhattisgarh is a state where people prefer not to change the government very quickly. “One can’t see any anti-incumbency wave this time,” she said.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)