Chennai: As the relationship between allies All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) grows more strained, political observers feel that the BJP — the junior partner in the alliance eager to establish a stronger presence in Tamil Nadu — is flexing its muscles to strengthen its bargaining power.
About a week after publicly stating that the BJP-AIADMK alliance stands strong, Tamil Nadu BJP Chief K. Annamalai raised several eyebrows when he, in a closed-door party meeting last week, said that he was not in favour of allying with the AIADMK for the 2024 polls, multiple party sources told ThePrint.
Speaking to media persons Sunday, Annamalai stated that the future of the alliance would be determined by the BJP’s central leadership and clarified that his personal stance was simply in support of “clean politics” within the state.
Political observers believe that Annamalai’s statement on not wanting an alliance with AIADMK — coming on the back of a power tussle between the two last week over the parties poaching each other’s cadre — is perhaps the BJP’s attempt at communicating that it doesn’t want to play second fiddle to the regional party. Especially in the Lok Sabha elections when the AIADMK will be banking on using the ‘Modi factor’ and the BJP’s ability to broker peace between the two warring AIADMK factions — led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) and O. Panneerselvam OPS — as it had done during last month’s Erode bypolls.
According to senior political observer Priyan (who goes by a single name), the whole controversy could even be an attempt to put pressure on the AIADMK. It could be, he told ThePrint, “a tactic to ensure an upper hand and to place themselves in a better bargaining position.”
The AIADMK which had, during the Erode bypolls, announced its stand on continuing its alliance with the BJP for 2024 polls, still insists that the going is “smooth” between the alliance partners despite Annamalai’s statements. However, AIADMK leaders ThePrint spoke to maintain that the BJP will remain a junior partner.
Annamalai’s comments come within days of the BJP National President J.P. Nadda having told party leaders to not criticise AIADMK, party sources told ThePrint. The comments also bring differences within the BJP’s state unit to the fore, with many party leaders distancing themselves from Annamalai’s remark.
According to senior functionaries who spoke to ThePrint, during the closed-door meeting held Friday, Annamalai, the BJP’s state president for nearly two years, expressed his desire for the BJP to be portrayed as a “clean” party. “Cutting ties with the AIADMK is essential if the BJP was to campaign for a clean, corruption-free government,” said a senior BJP office bearer. Another party functionary who spoke to ThePrint said that Annamalai is said to have communicated his stand to the BJP high command as well.
“A majority agreed with him. Every political party will want to come to power in the state and for the BJP, now is a right time to fight the Dravidian parties,” said a senior BJP leader to ThePrint on condition of anonymity.
In his statement to the media, Annamalai had added, “I have started to make the decision that I should be in good and clean politics. If I need to change myself for present politics I don’t wish to be in such politics.”
While there were supporters for the state president’s opinion on the alliance, there were also many opposed to it. Leaders like MLA Nainar Nagendran and H. Raja have reportedly distanced themselves from the party president’s stand and have called it “his individual opinion”.
Speaking to ThePrint, BJP’s Coimbatore South MLA Vanathi Srinivasan said, “In a democratic party every individual has the right to take a stand. But when it comes to political alliances, the core committee and the national high command will decide keeping in mind national interest.”
Vanathi, according to BJP functionaries present at the meeting, also raised this point Friday.
Labelling Annamalai’s statement as “quite puzzling”, political analyst Sumanth C. Raman told ThePrint that it has “brought to light the fault lines in the state BJP, bringing difference in opinion within the state unit to the fore.”
He added that considering the BJP has been accused of allegedly poaching MLAs in different states, the “clean politics” comment by Annamalai is “a bit thick”. Raman further added that for the BJP, an alliance with the AIADMK is essential for 2024 polls and that, “rocking the boat now would be suicidal”.
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‘AIADMK needs the BJP’
The BJP, a national party trying to make inroads into the state dominated by Dravidian parties, had registered a vote share of just 3.66 per cent vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2021 state assembly polls, though the BJP, in alliance with the AIADMK, won four seats, it saw a marginal decline in its vote share. From 2.84 per cent vote share in 2016 polls, it went down to 2.61 per cent in 2021.
The AIADMK-BJP alliance was formed in 2019 ahead of the Lok Sabha polls when AIADMK was facing internal turmoil. The power struggle and uncertainties within the party, coupled with the anti-incumbency sentiment at the time, had led to the AIADMK seeing a huge defeat. Now, at a time when the party is looking to make a comeback, the BJP will be a good ally to rely on, political analysts believe.
“The AIADMK needs the BJP, a national party, as its ally for the 2024 polls. So far, EPS or the other leaders have never said anything against PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah or BJP national president J.P. Nadda,” said Priyan.
Having faced a complete rout in the 2021 Parliamentary polls, AIADMK will benefit from the Modi factor and the central government’s schemes to put up a stronger fight in the 2024 parliamentary elections, say analysts.
“In Tamil Nadu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance has higher chances in 2024 polls and the second runner up is likely to be the BJP. To fare better and to not be pushed to the third place, the AIADMK must be in an alliance with the BJP,” said Raveenthran Duraisamy, a political researcher from Tamil Nadu, to ThePrint. “The BJP will be in a better position for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as their mascot or trump card is Modi.”
‘AIADMK will be alliance’s engine’
On 10 February, during the AIADMK’s campaign in Erode ahead of the bypolls, the party’s interim general secretary EPS had announced that AIADMK would continue its alliance with the BJP.
While BJP functionaries who spoke to ThePrint said the state president wanted to take the lead and not be second fiddle to the AIADMK. The Dravidian party, which refused to speak about the closed-door meeting, assured that the alliance is still intact.
Strains between the alliances grabbed attention when around 13 BJP members joined the AIADMK, and several AIADMK workers jumped ship to join the BJP. Though both political parties dismissed the issue as “normal in politics”. Analysts said that it did affect the strained alliance.
“The AIADMK is having a smooth relationship with the BJP. As far as 2024 is concerned, the AIADMK will be the engine or lead for the alliance,” said former AIADMK MP Dr J. Jayavardhan to ThePrint. On the alliances, the AIADMK high command will have the final say, he added.
A senior BJP leader talking about the alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls said, “One year is a long time in politics, we will talk about this closer to polls.”
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)