Mumbai: The Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and ruling Mahayuti alliances were both confident of sweeping the 18th Lok Sabha election from Maharashtra, but pitching local issues, fielding candidates earlier in the campaign and consolidating votes successfully, the MVA has eventually prevailed over the Mahayuti.
From new, untested alliances and two factions of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to the Maratha quota agitation and the possible impact of Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) on the Opposition vote share, several factors made the elections in Maharashtra unpredictable this time.
However, winning 30 of the state’s 48 seats, the MVA Tuesday emerged as the winner in the Maharashtra contest in which the Mahayuti pocketed 17 seats. One seat, Sangli, went to an Independent, Congress rebel Vishal Patil.
Ahead of the polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP formed the Mahayuti whereas Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and Congress formed the MVA.
The Congress, reduced to just one seat in Maharashtra in 2019, emerged as the party with the maximum number of seats this time, clinching 13 of 48 constituencies. Contesting 17 seats, the Congress recorded a strong strike rate of 76 percent.
Among other MVA parties, the Shiv Sena (UBT) won nine of the 21 seats it contested at a strike rate of 42.8 percent. The NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) also registered an impressive performance, winning eight or 80 percent of the ten seats it fought. These two parties had to fight with new symbols as the Election Commission, ahead of the polls, awarded the symbols of the undivided Shiv Sena and NCP to their rival factions.
As part of the Mahayuti, the BJP came down to nine seats, with a dismal strike rate of 32 percent in the 28 seats it contested. The party’s only solace is it still emerged as the party with the highest vote share in Maharashtra at 26.18 percent, followed by the 16.92 percent vote share secured by the Congress.
The Ajit Pawar-led NCP fielded four candidates as part of the Mahayuti and won only one, recording the lowest strike rate — 25 percent. Not far behind the BJP, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena logged a 46% strike rate by winning seven of the 15 seats it contested.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP contested with the undivided Shiv Sena as its ally. Together, they swept the state, winning 41 of the 48 seats. The undivided NCP won four seats, while the Congress came down to one in 2019. Independent MLA Navneet Rana clinched one of the remaining two seats, while the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen won the other.
The battle lines got redrawn, this election. With the state’s two main regional parties split, traditional allies became rivals, and traditional foes became friends. This was the first major poll in which these new battle lines underwent the test of democracy.
The MVA, which, party leaders said, made targeted efforts to consolidate the votes of the three parties under its banner, came out on top.
Moreover, despite being a general election, where national issues usually take precedence, several local concerns were at play this time. The Maratha quota agitation, growing fears about the diversion of investments to Gujarat, and policies on onion exports, among others, dominated the poll campaign discourse.
“The Opposition managed to highlight local issues in their campaign across different parts of Maharashtra, stirring anti-incumbency against the BJP even in areas where the party was once strong,” writer and political commentator Vaibhav Purandare told ThePrint.
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Major upsets for BJP & Mahayuti
The BJP got cut down to size in Maharashtra’s key seats, where it dominated back in 2014 and 2019. For instance, in Mumbai, the party won all six seats in 2019 in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena. The BJP alone contested three seats and won all of them.
However, in this election, the BJP contested three seats in Mumbai and emerged victorious in just one — Mumbai North — where Union Minister Piyush Goyal won.
The Shinde-led Shiv Sena contested three seats in Mumbai and triumphed in only one — Mumbai North West — which Ravindra Waikar won by a whisker of 48 votes against Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Amol Kirtikar.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday evening, Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray said his party plans to challenge the Mumbai North West election results.
The Mahayuti’s Mumbai upsets came despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first-of-its-kind roadshow in Mumbai’s Ghatkopar, a Gujarati-dominated stronghold of the BJP, and a mega rally at the landmark Shivaji Park closing the Maharashtra campaign.
In 2014 and 2019, the BJP-led NDA did not only sweep the election in Mumbai but in the Vidarbha region also. In 2014, NDA won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Vidarbha, wiping out the Congress. In 2019, it won eight seats, the Congress won just one, and another seat went to an Independent.
This time, the BJP won only two of Vidarbha’s ten seats, Nagpur, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari’s seat, and Akola. The Shinde-led Shiv Sena won Buldhana. In the rest of the seats, the NDA got wiped out, the Congress won five, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) clinched one seat each.
In Vidarbha’s Chandrapur, the Congress also crushed state minister Sudhir Mungantiwar with a fat margin of over 2.6 lakh votes.
In other regions too, the BJP experienced some key upsets. Three Union ministers — Raosaheb Danve, Bharti Pawar and Kapil Patil — suffered drubbing in Jalna, Dindori and Bhiwandi, respectively.
The BJP’s alliance partners — Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP — also could not deliver in their respective battles for prestige. For instance, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena delivered its bastions of Thane and Kalyan but could not make a dent in the undivided Shiv Sena’s home turf, Mumbai, beyond a point. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP, meanwhile, lost the Pawar family stronghold, Baramati, and also lost to the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) in Shirur.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday evening, Chief Minister Shinde said, “In the state, to a certain extent, the Opposition led an erroneous campaign about us changing the Constitution. (To) the people who indulged in vote bank politics, I would like to say that nobody, not even Balasaheb (Bal Thackeray) likes it. To those who fell prey to this kind of campaigning, I would like to say that you will see these people’s true faces.”
Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis took a similar line. In a post on social media platform X, Fadnavis congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling for respect for the overall verdict as it now stands.
He further said that the BJP could not get as many seats as expected in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. “…It is unfortunate that this election was an attempt to win seats by false propaganda that the Constitution would be changed…,” said the post.
A senior BJP leader, however, said on the condition of anonymity that the coordination between the MVA parties to ensure their votes get consolidated was much stronger than that in the Mahayuti.
“I have even heard of Shiv Sena (UBT) having meetings (at) Shiv Sena Bhavan (the party headquarters) with Congress leaders to plan campaign strategies. This used to hardly happen even when we were in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena,” he said.
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Better coordination in MVA, Sangli a ‘sore point’
Anti-incumbency also became a factor during campaigning.
Former Congress Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan told ThePrint, “The three parties gelled together very well and campaigned for each others’ candidates. There was a lot of anger on the ground against the incumbent government. That anger led the cadre of the three parties to unite and work for each other.”
The MVA finalised its seat-sharing deal early in April, much before the Mahayuti could conclusively arrive at a formula. This enabled parties to name candidates sooner and gave the parties, as well as candidates, enough headroom to campaign.
On the other hand, the Mahayuti worked out seat-sharing for a few constituencies, such as Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, Mumbai South, Mumbai North West, Thane and Nashik, at the eleventh hour.
While the alliance won Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg and Thane, it lost Mumbai South and Nashik. The fight in Mumbai North West was neck-and-neck between the two Shiv Senas, with the Shinde-led Shiv Sena eventually winning with 48 votes.
On some seats, the Mahayuti alliance also fielded candidates that not all parties under its banner were in favour of. The Mumbai South seat, which it lost, and the Mumbai North West seat, which it won by a whisker, were two such constituencies.
Speaking to ThePrint last month, Fadnavis said the BJP is telling its cadre to look beyond the candidate and work for Modi. “For us, the candidate is of no importance. Anybody who wins from Shiv Sena will win for Modi ji; anybody who will win from Opposition parties will win for Rahul Gandhi. So, we have told our people there is no need to look at the candidate, you have to look at Modi ji,” he said.
However, breaking down the election into such binaries did not necessarily lead voters to overlook multiple other factors — the choice of candidates, the politics of breaking down parties and making alliances, and the consolidation of votes based on caste.
Before the MVA hammered out a seat-sharing deal, the Shiv Sena (UBT), flexing its muscle, had started announcing candidates, even in the seats its ally Congress was eyeing.
A senior Congress leader who did not wish to be named said, “Our party gave in despite Uddhav Thackeray’s domination to ensure the seat-sharing was smooth, though it cost us. We were more flexible with give and take within the alliance.”
Sangli was one of the seats the Congress wanted for itself, but the Shiv Sena (UBT) unilaterally announced its candidate. The Congress’ Vishal Patil contested as an Independent against the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate and emerged victorious. Patil said that his rebellion also had a rub-off effect on the neighbouring seat of Hatkanangale, which the Shinde-led Shiv Sena later won.
Thackeray, speaking to reporters on Tuesday, said the MVA had expected to win more seats. “In (the) case of Sangli, we can see clearly whether alliance dharma was followed or not. We will take our next steps accordingly,” he said.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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