As Haryana plunges into poll cycle, 5 obstacles in ruling BJP’s road to re-election

Nayab Singh Saini-led BJP govt in Haryana has made plethora of announcements with an eye on assembly polls. But party’s road to re-election is fraught with obstacles.

BJP is looking at third term in Haryana | Representational image | Suraj Singh Bisht | ThePrint

Gurugram: With Haryana going to the polls on 1 October, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stares at five key challenges, according to one political analyst who underlines that the party has a steep climb ahead, given the setback it suffered in the general election earlier this year.

In the Lok Sabha elections that concluded in June, Haryana BJP’s tally of seats halved to 5 from 10 in 2014, and its vote share dropped by 12 percentage points. The BJP led in 44 of the state’s 90 assembly segments, the Congress in 42, and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in 4. 

The Nayab Singh Saini-led government has since made a plethora of announcements with an eye on the assembly polls. But the party’s road to re-election is fraught with obstacles.

Addressing a press conference at Chandigarh Friday, Leader of the Opposition Bhupinder Hooda and state Congress chief Udai Bhan said declaration of poll dates marked the beginning of the end for Haryana BJP. “The BJP has done nothing in the name of development in Haryana in these 10 years. The ruling party has just tried to fool people with slogans. People are waiting for 1 October. The results on 4 October will mark the ouster of the BJP government from Haryana,” said Hooda.

Haryana BJP spokesperson Sanjay Sharma, however, said the party is fully prepared for the assembly elections. “As many as 45 teams of two party functionaries each are in the field to take meetings in all 90 assembly segments on Friday and Saturday. I am also in Kaithal right now. We are activating our panna pramukhs. We lost five seats in the Lok Sabha polls because of inaction by our workers who thought Modi would win anyway. But this time we are telling them that each vote counts,” said Sharma.

Jyoti Mishra, a researcher at Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), explained why the BJP is facing an uphill task in Haryana.

“Congress’ success, winning 5 of 10 (Lok Sabha) seats, was driven by strategic leaders like Deepender Hooda and Kumari Selja, who effectively addressed anti-incumbency sentiment and capitalised on issues like unemployment, farmers’ protests, Agniveer, and inflation. BJP’s handling of the wrestlers’ protests and agrarian discontent, coupled with infrastructural deficiencies, further fueled dissatisfaction,” she said.

The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey indicates the Congress made substantial inroads into BJP’s traditional voter base in Haryana, Mishra added.

While BJP retained most of its upper-caste votes, it saw a significant decline in OBC support, with nearly 29 percent shifting towards the Congress. The Congress also gained support among Dalit voters, with two-thirds of this bloc voting for it in the general election.

It further secured the crucial Jat vote, with two of every three Jats siding with them. 

“These shifts in voter allegiance, influenced by caste equations and mounting discontent on various fronts, suggest BJP could face a tough battle in the upcoming assembly elections. The Congress’ ability to maintain its broad social coalition will be key, while BJP must address these issues to regain its footing in Haryana,” Mishra told ThePrint.

Here, ThePrint lists five key challenges the BJP faces in Haryana.

Anti-incumbency sentiment

Since 1977, voters in Haryana have never given any party an absolute majority (more than 45 of the total 90 seats) for a second consecutive time.

Now, with both BJP and Congress winning 5 seats each in the general election, anti-incumbency stares BJP in the face, given a large chunk of its vote share in the Lok Sabha polls comprised urban voters who wanted to see Modi as prime minister again.

This is also why issues like unemployment, inflation, and local grievances against BJP legislators in Haryana are likely to hinder its prospects of re-election.

Agrarian discontent 

Haryana has a sizable farming population, which is why it witnessed massive protests against the Centre’s now-withdrawn three farm laws in 2020-21. Although the laws were repealed, lingering resentment among farmers, especially in rural areas, might pose a challenge for the BJP. A glimpse of this was visible even during the Lok Sabha polls when farmers in parts of the state staged demonstrations against BJP candidates. 

Though CM Saini has announced MSP on all 24 crops as against 14 earlier, many farmers are not impressed. They allege that the new crops added to the list — ragi, soybean, kala seed (fennel), jute, khopra (copra), moong, niger seed, surajmukhi (sunflower), jaun (barley), and jowar (sorghum) — are not grown in Haryana in significant numbers.

The ongoing protest by farmers from Punjab along the Shambhu border, coupled with Haryana government nominating police officers who used “brutal force” against protesting farmers for gallantry medals has only made the situation worse for the BJP.

Caste dynamics & polarisation

Managing the complex caste equations in Haryana, particularly with signs of discontentment among the Jat community, is another challenge that awaits the BJP.

Failure to address these effectively could lead to a loss of support in key constituencies.

Internal factionalism

Though both the Congress and BJP are plagued with internal strife, the BJP in Haryana has been bogged down by internal factionalism of late. 

For instance, Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh is upset at not getting a Cabinet rank. Bhiwani MP Dharambir Singh, considered close to Rao Inderjit Singh, has already announced this will be his last election, and his younger brother Rajbir Singh Lala has sought a Congress ticket from Tosham. To add to that, former state minister Anil Vij has been sulking ever since he was dropped from the state cabinet in March this year.

Differences among party leaders, particularly between the state and central leadership, could weaken the BJP’s effectiveness in campaigning, and any more public rifts or disagreements could further dent its prospects.

Agniveer & wrestlers’ issue

The controversy surrounding the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI), including allegations of sexual harassment against its former chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, a former BJP MP from Uttar Pradesh, has had a significant impact on public opinion, particularly in Haryana, which has given the country many of its top wrestlers. Further, Vinesh Phogat’s disqualification from the Paris Olympics where she was eyeing a gold medal, though not a political issue per say, has also left many in Haryana seething.

The Agniveer issue, too, is believed to have led to a sizable dent in the BJP’s prospects in Haryana, with the Congress demanding its rollback.

(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)