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HomePoliticsKarnataka Elections 2018Will BJP seek JD(S) support in Karnataka or will it try to...

Will BJP seek JD(S) support in Karnataka or will it try to break it?

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Deve Gowda is on record rejecting any truck with BJP. In such a scenario, are Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy on the same page on an alliance partner?

It’s been a dramatic, nail-biting day, but perhaps not in the way the contesting parties in the Karnataka assembly elections had anticipated.

Would the BJP, somewhat unexpectedly, win a comfortable majority or fall short by four to eight seats, as it did in 2008 (by two seats)? Unlike in the latter instance, today there are no independents that the BJP chief ministerial candidate B.S. Yeddyurappa can rely on. So, as the final numbers continue to arrive, there is still a distinct possibility that the Congress and the JD(S) could join hands and form the next government if the current numbers hold good.

But the headline of the 2018 Karnataka assembly election is that even though both the Congress and the BJP have gotten the same vote share (at around 35 per cent), the BJP will emerge as the single largest party. Its vote share has gone up by around 15 per cent and it will likely win an extra 70 seats compared to its 2013 performance.

On the other hand, the Congress has retained its vote share but lost nearly 50 constituencies. Outgoing chief minister Siddaramaiah lost his old constituency of Chamundeshwari although he won narrowly from Badami. Nearly half of his cabinet colleagues have lost. Among the most prominent losers is Dr. H.C. Mahadevappa, PWD minister and Siddaramaiah’s candidate to be the next chief minister if the demands for a Dalit chief minister were to persist.

In the end, the BJP has comfortably emerged as the single largest party, perhaps exceeding its own internal expectations. Not only did the victorious party win quite comfortably in its stronghold of north, central and coastal Karnataka by picking up an additional 60 seats compared to the 2013 elections, it also picked up seats in the JD(S) and Congress strongholds in the Old Mysore region. In fact, the BJP candidate won in Hassan, former prime minister Deve Gowda’s home district.

The other impressive performer is the Janata Dal(S), which despite its limited base in the Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysore region, won nearly 37 seats, thus matching its performance of the 2013 elections. It personally targeted Siddaramaiah, and defeated him in Chamundeshwari constituency. More importantly, JD(S) dissident MLAs who had crossed over to the Congress on the eve of the elections and contested on Congress tickets, lost quite badly, with just one exception.

Yet Deve Gowda and his son, Kumaraswamy, will fervently pray for a hung assembly for a simple reason. It isn’t enough for the JD(S) to retain its political base. Having been out of power for more than a decade, the party has to be part of the next government. Otherwise, it will risk losing its flock. So, if the BJP doesn’t reach the half way mark, the JD(S) will be eager to form a coalition government with Congress.

After the early reversals this morning, the Congress may have hoped for a replay of the Bihar 2015 state assembly elections. That wasn‘t to be. Now it is clear that the Congress will not win a majority. Nor will it emerge as the single largest party.

How do we explain the results then?

From the beginning, the competition among three political parties was quite close and the elections were closely fought. There was no strong wave in favour of any one party. Nor was there any visible anti-incumbency. Under these circumstances, out of the three competitors, clearly the Congress has underperformed.

It is now clear that Siddaramaiah’s governance or political strategies haven’t borne any political dividends. His various populist schemes targeting his core AHINDA (Minority, OBC and Dalit) didn’t lead to their electoral consolidation as Siddaramaiah had hoped. On the other hand, these measures seem to have led to greater resentment among upper castes, who voted in large numbers against Congress.

Further, Siddaramaiah’s efforts to split the Lingayat vote has failed. The BJP recorded impressive victories in north and central Karnataka, where Veerashaiva and Lingayats are present in large numbers. With the exception of M. B. Patil, all the other ministers who led the Lingayat movement lost badly. This reversal quite possibly represents a backlash against the Congress but it also seems to be an affirmation of Yeddyurappa’s status as the undisputed leader of the Lingayat community.

Just like Lingayats, the other dominant community of Karnataka, the Vokkaligas, have firmly stood behind the JD(S) and seem to have voted in large numbers, as indicated by the voting percentage in the Old Mysore region, which crossed 80 per cent. There was perceptible anger against Siddaramaiah in particular, as he was seen as arrogant especially by the Vokkaligas.

It also appears that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s extensive campaigning over the last three months helped the BJP to consolidate its vote. The Modi factor may have been more important than the vaunted Amit Shah’s political strategizing.

As final numbers arrive later this evening, more precise explanation of the election results could be offered. But the political drama in Bangalore is certain to continue as BJP will most likely fall short of the majority. The JD(S) and Congress may have enough MLAs to form the next government.

Now here are the pertinent two questions. First, will BJP seek JD(S) support or will it try to break the JD(S)? Deve Gowda is on record rejecting any truck with BJP. In such a scenario, are Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy on the same page on an alliance partner. An answer to this second question may determine Karnataka’s immediate political future.

Prithvi Datta Chandra Shobhi is a social historian and political commentator. At present, he teaches history at the Karnataka State Open University, Mysore.

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