The Congress has not made the face of Siddaramaiah the central issue in this election. The campaign hasn’t forced the question on voters: Sidda or not?
In Karnataka, the Congress is in a dream situation. There is, magically, little anti-incumbency against chief minister Siddaramaiah. And yet, no one says the Congress could cross the majority mark of 113 seats.
In case it does, it will be said there was a Siddaramaiah wave. Post-facto explanations are always easy. And there are those who think the support for Siddaramaiah comes from the silent poor who could surprise.
Yet, for now, the Bengaluru consensus is that this is a waveless election, and voters aren’t very enthusiastic about it — and not just in Bengaluru. The most important issue in the election? Caste.
The Congress has an upper hand in the caste calculation. It’s AHINDA strategy of combining Dalits, Muslims and backwards holds. Its endorsement of giving Lingayats the status of a religious minority may not be bringing it much Lingayat vote, but has at least helped make the BJP anxious about its own vote-bank.
Siddaramaiah’s “Bhagya” schemes are very popular. His Anna Bhagya scheme gives the poor free foodgrains, and other items are subsidised. There are freebie schemes for milk and cycles and laptops and clothes and so on.
His opponent, B.S. Yeddyurappa, is old and weak. He couldn’t even ensure a ticket for his son.
Corruption is not an issue voters care about – in any case, the BJP is seen as more corrupt.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s massive rallies help the BJP, but they have limited impact, since this is not the Hindi heartland.
Siddaramaiah’s rallies have great crowd connect. He has also owned the Kannada pride narrative, using it against Modi and Shah. He has also shown great confidence in taking on the PM directly, not feeling weak and apologetic about it like the Congress sometimes does.
Siddaramaiah also has a greater free hand from his high command, and less interference from rival factions in the party, than most Congress chieftains do.
In all surveys, Siddaramaiah comes out as the most popular choice for the post of chief minister. Few people speak ill of him.
Caste? Check. Corruption? Upper hand. Regional pride? Owned. Popularity? Undisputed.
In other words, there are all the ingredients of a Siddaramaiah wave. But there is no wave.
As many voters make up their minds last minute, things could still change — in any direction. But for now, Siddaramaiah is not the first thing that comes up in conversations around the election. He is very popular in north Karnataka, but that is only one of six regions in the state.
People in the Congress and those sympathetic to it say it has the edge and could cross 100 seats. But with everything going for it, the Congress should have been looking at crossing the finishing line.
What’s holding the Congress back? There are the obvious micro-reasons. There’s a resurgent Modi-fied BJP. There’s anti-incumbency against sitting Congress MLAs, most of whom are re-contesting. There’s money and resources, on which the BJP outmatches every other party in every state. There’s the JD(S) holding on to its Vokkaliga voters in south Karnataka, hoping to benefit from a hung assembly.
But what the Congress has missed is making the face of Siddaramaiah the central issue in this election. That is what PM Modi does – it becomes all about Modi. Do you like Modi or not becomes the central issue in a Modi election. Similarly, Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal and Amarinder Singh have all fought elections with that question.
In 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party’s campaign in Delhi said ‘Paanch Saal Kejriwal’, forcing voters to ask whether they wanted Kejriwal for five years or not. The same Kejriwal was defeated in Punjab, where the Congress emphasised that voters needed a Captain to lead them, not a volatile rag-tag AAP army controlled from Delhi. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar allied with Lalu Yadav, but the joint campaign was all about Nitish.
To be fair, the Congress has tried doing the same in Karnataka. The whole campaign rests on Siddaramaiah’s shoulders. It’s him versus the rest. It is only because of that the Congress is widely considered to be in pole position.
There’s the slogan ‘Sada Sidde Sarkara (ever-ready government)’, but it is not the campaign’s main slogan. The main slogan is, ‘Karnatakada Hemme, Congress Mattomme (Congress is the pride of Karnataka, elect the party once again)’.
The Congress needed an intense Siddaramaiah-is-best campaign to force the question on voters: Sidda or not?
Playing up the face more than the party was the final lap, the closing of the circle, that could have made this a one-sided election. The inability to do so has made it another of those “close contest,” “complex”, “hung assembly likely” kind of election. And that doesn’t bode well for the Congress.