Anything you say about the US presidential election on the eve of counting would usually have a half-life of not more than a few hours. Given how close the race is, how ideologically polarised this campaign is, and the wide divergences on most key issues between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, it is worthwhile to look at some possibilities, entirely from India’s viewpoint.
You can’t be indifferent to a US presidential election.
Nor can you be cynical in the way Manthara has ingrained in our popular consciousness: Kou nrip hoye hamein kya haani (why should I care who is anointed the monarch). If this is not the era of war, it also isn’t the era of such cynical indifference in geopolitics. And India, a rising power, cannot be blasé about change in any important capital in the world. Least of all in Washington.
We listed earlier all the areas of divergence in this US election, the most polarised one in recent memory. There is, however, one area of equally wide convergence, over improving the relationship with India. We are looking at the five important areas where US policy matters for India and how it may vary between Harris and Trump. First, we list the strategic issues and divide these into three: local, regional and global.
• Local, for India, is the immediate neighbourhood, though China will feature in all three categories. So far, between Obama, Trump and Biden, India has seen a favourable bipartisan consensus. On China, this will sustain. In fact, in case it’s Trump, it will become stronger. Lately, however, we have seen the Biden administration break away from India’s view on some of its neighbours, especially Bangladesh and Myanmar. In the case of both, the entrenched Democratic establishment has taken charge of policy, and helped achieve a regime change in at least one. Both to India’s discomfiture along its most sensitive borders. If the Democrats return, expect continuity and increased pressure on the Myanmarese junta.
But if it’s Trump, Muhammad Yunus—and both the Islamists by his side, and the generals backing him from behind—should get very nervous. Trump has indicated clearly enough that he sees Yunus as a Democratic fellow-traveller. There is a greater chance that he will be indifferent to Myanmar, leaving India more space.
A Trump presidency may bring India some concerns on Pakistan. The Biden administration has by and large relegated the country to a very low priority. Trump had found some oomph in Imran Khan in their meetings. His administration may just be inclined to help bring him back, and figure out a better working relationship with the old ally. All guesswork, but this space needs watching.
• ’Regional’ is defined generally as countries within about a 2000-km radius of India. This will encompass the Middle East to our west, all of ASEAN, north Asia and China to the east. The Middle East is currently caught in a multi-layered war. With Harris, we will see continuity and fresh pressure on Netanyahu to shorten the war, and even a possible outreach to Iran.
Trump will mean more radical changes. He will be more partisan, treating Iran as an enemy from day one, encouraging Netanyahu to fight to the finish and even helping him do it quickly. For India, it will be a mixed bag. But remember, for all his disruptive talk, Trump brought the most stability to the Middle East with the Abraham Accords. These, as our foreign affairs columnist Swasti Rao points out, led to I2U2 and IMEC. Trump will push further in this direction, bring the Saudis in and isolate Iran. So brace for more excitement.
On the eastern side, not that much will change, except that Trump might pay more attention to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad than Harris. He will also be more impatient with India’s idea of avoiding any overt security flavour to it. The differences here will be subtle, not major.
• Globally, the region that is really praying for Harris is most of Europe, barring some like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. A Trump victory can be a Putin victory in the sense that the latter may be able to stop his unwinnable war while declaring some sort of victory. Ukraine’s morale will be shattered. Europe’s security architecture will be shaken, if not rewritten. A change will make India consider two different outcomes: one, that the post-World War 2 principle that no country can take another’s territory through war will be rewritten. This is a negative. The second, that Russia will be able to end the war, and thereby become less vulnerable to the collapse the western powers have been seeking, and thereby less dependent on China. Sanctions will go and global oil prices moderate a bit. That will be a positive for India.
If Harris picks up the baton from Biden, you can see the West increasing its support for Ukraine enormously, a probable release of long-range weapons like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), and a significant number of F-16s in combat by February, if not earlier.
It does seem, however, that either candidate will keep a tight focus on China and the Indo-Pacific. If Trump frees up Washington’s resources and mindspace from Ukraine, he might make this focus sharper. But then, Trump and focus don’t always go together. What if Xi Jinping suddenly becomes a great friend like Kim Jong Un did one day?
• On the economy, both sides are now more insular and protectionist, though Trump will be more so. That will be a big worry for India, given that the US is more often than not its largest trading partner and also one with which it enjoys the biggest surplus ($35.3 billion last year and tracking even more in 2024). Trump will put this, and also offshoring—or what he sees as the export of American jobs—under pressure. That’s more than 2 million white-collar, high-paying tech jobs in India.
• Finally, technology, weaponry, and social and political issues: There won’t be much change in India’s access to science, technology, defence hardware and intelligence cooperation. These are all among the areas least prone to changes, and if anything, might improve under Trump. One area that can vary radically between Harris and Trump is the socio-political lecturing and “concerns”. To that, a Trump win will be a win for the Modi government. As it will be for the many strongman governments across the world.
In conclusion, we need to remember three things:
- No US administration or leader is pro or anti-India. They will all be pro-US. They will then see where India fits into their interests. How relevant it is. Strategic policy is not about sentiment.
- Irrespective of what you hear, from Trump or on social media, the US is not a power in decline economically or strategically. As Fareed Zakaria pointed out just a week back, in 2008, the US’s GDP was about one-and-a-half times that of the Eurozone. Today, it is about twice as much. And even as China slows down and Europe keeps declining, the US will be growing. The chance of China ever exceeding America’s economy today looks to be zero.
- And last, though I know it is a very popular idea among many in India, de-dollarisation isn’t an idea whose time has come. The dollar, as many wise people including the leading RSS intellectual Ram Madhav explained in this article, will remain predominant. So please, do not let any BRICS kind of noise confuse you. This will also not change whether it is Harris or Trump; the dollar is here to stay.
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