If not love, let calamity toss her unto my bosom.” The quote—often ascribed incorrectly to Shakespeare, Keats, and even Poe—highlights a moment of desperate camaraderie in the absence of a genuine relationship. Notwithstanding the painful experiences of the past, a repeat of “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” should be seen in the light of the emerging new world order and Donald Trump’s tariff tantrums.
Never before in the annals of world history have geopolitical events moved so fast that in a week, half a dozen world leaders have criss-crossed the globe, resetting relations, alliances, and partnerships. A major realignment is the Russia-India-China alliance, first floated in the late 1990s, being revived in the wake of Trump’s tariff war on the world.
China was part of the “extended troika” talks in 2021 to discuss the Afghanistan issue, along with Russia, Pakistan, and the US. Last week, Wang Yi held China-Afghanistan-Pakistan troika talks in Kabul on including Afghanistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), much to New Delhi’s displeasure.
For India, tilting toward China is not easy or comfortable. This is especially so when the border issue remains unresolved, the wounds of Galwan are not yet healed, the CPEC challenges its territorial integrity, and Washington-Beijing interests are converging in the troubled Balochistan.
China is also coming up with the 5,000–kilometre Xinjiang-Tibet railway, connecting Shigatse, Tibet’s (China calls Tibet ‘Xizang’ in its official documents) second largest city, to Hotan in Xinjiang, while linking up with the existing railway network in Lhasa. The line, part of China’s “major national strategies”, passes dangerously close to the India-China Line of Control. It will give the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) quicker access to Tibet from its Chongqing-based 13th Group Army, allowing faster movement of troops and supplies to the Himalayan frontier.
China at the helm
It is sad that the present occupant of the White House seems to be ignorant of history and his own agency’s report. China and Russia are major powers that seek to undermine US influence, said the 2022 Commission on National Defense Strategy (NDS). Recognising these nations as the top threats to the US, the commission declared China to be the “pacing challenge”, based on the strength of its military and economy, and its intent to exert dominance regionally and globally.
The Commission found that, in many ways, China is outpacing the US and has largely negated American military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment. Without significant change by the US, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favour. Beijing’s overall annual spending on defence is estimated to be over $700 billion, and the Chinese government announced an increase of 7.2 per cent in March 2024.
In 2024, Russia devoted 29 per cent of its federal budget to national defence as it continued to reconstitute its military and economy after its failed initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia possesses considerable strategic, space, and cyber capabilities, and under Vladimir Putin, seeks a return to its global leadership role of the Cold War era.
China and Russia’s “no-limits” partnership, formed in February 2022, just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has only deepened. It has also broadened to include a military and economic partnership with Iran and North Korea, each of which presents its own significant threat to American interests. This new alignment of nations opposed to the US creates a real risk, if not likelihood, that conflict anywhere could become a multithreaded or global war.
Besides cooperation in Ukraine, China is also combining its military, technological, economic, and diplomatic prowess to expand its power base and unseat the US from its global leader status. From being a middle power to aiding the US in its Cold War against the Soviet Union, China is now seeking to lead the emerging new world order with the help of Russia and countries annoyed by Donald Trump.
Also read: India-China ties — improvement signs are loud, problems sliding under the radar
Real deterrence
The White House urgently needs to turn to the pages of history if it wants to retain its numero uno position. What began as a personality clash between Mao Zedong and Nikita Khrushchev grew into a diplomatic and ideological schism between China and the Soviet Union. By 1969, the fellow travellers had become “estranged comrades”, with daggers drawn at each other. Ironically, China then turned to the US, replacing Moscow with Washington as its enemy number one. This, even as the Nixon administration, with assistance from Kissinger, saw the China-USSR conflict as an opportunity to forge a strategic relationship with Beijing and contain the Soviet Union to rebalance Cold War power dynamics. After 55 long years, the China-Russia power equation is challenging Trump’s America militarily, economically, and diplomatically.
The US military may still be the strongest, and its navy, very powerful. But more than military strength, real deterrence comes from soft power strengths. This involves actions such as promoting a coalition of democracies, trading with friendly countries, improving industrial and research capabilities by drawing the best of global intellect, and, more importantly, respecting the strategic autonomy of friends like India.
Unfortunately, Trump is cosying up to rogue nations that thrive on terrorism. He is pulling the plug on education, innovation, and research; throwing out immigrants who have greatly contributed to America’s economic growth; and using tariffs as a weapon to antagonise friends and trade partners. By the time America realises the perilous path Trump’s MAGA plans have put the country on, it might be too late for course correction.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)