On the face of it, the speech of Pakistan Army chief, Gen Qamar Bajwa, at the inaugural Islamabad Security Dialogue (ISD) signalled a 180 degree shift in Pakistan’s strategic orientation. The emphasis on geo-economics instead of geo-politics was both refreshing and rational. Gen Bajwa pressed all the right buttons; said all the right things. He sounded reasonable and reflected a degree of realism not normally associated with Pakistani general officers. But as the old saying goes, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Given the huge chasm that exists between the stirring speech made by Pakistan’s de facto ruler and the reality on the ground, what can one make of what Bajwa said? Is Pakistan and its all-powerful military serious about wanting to “bury the past and move forward”? Or, was the entire speech nothing more than a slick attempt to “re-cast Pakistan’s image” and showcase it as a “peace-loving nation”?
A high-profile federal minister in the Imran Khan regime seems to think that the speech was basically about projecting a positive image of Pakistan. According to him, Bajwa’s speech wasn’t aimed at India but at the rest of the world. Adding weight to this disclosure by the minister is a document drawn up by the Pakistan government, which lays out in detail the template that Pakistan must follow to sell its ‘national narrative’ to foreign audiences. Bajwa’s speech pretty much conforms to the strategic communications guidelines given in the document. If indeed the speech is nothing more than an image building exercise, then clearly the prospective peace process with India will not go very far.
Both countries will, of course, go through the motions to earn some brownie points. Some efforts will be made to lower the rhetoric and create a positive atmosphere. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already taken the lead in this by wishing a speedy recovery to his counterpart from COVID-19 and has also extended greetings to the people of Pakistan on their national day. There will be some meetings held between officials, including at the political level. It is possible that a roadmap of sorts, on how to move forward, is also negotiated—basically talks about talks. Amidst all this, there will be the usual non-official stuff—Track-II meetings, sporting exchanges, the odd cultural exchange etc. Both sides will try to show that they are open to engagement. Neither side will want the other to gain any diplomatic points by appearing to be churlish and refusing engagement. But in the end, because both sides will be re-engaging not to make a breakthrough but to have a breakwater from extraneous pressures, it is a matter of time before the entire flimsy edifice being constructed breaks down once again. This will happen because, cosmetics aside, nothing would have changed on the ground. The best that can be hoped for is that there will be some mechanism in place—probably on the back-channel operating between the establishments of the two countries—to keep things from spiralling out of control.
The other possibility—which requires something far greater than a leap of faith to even consider—is that things might actually be changing. What if the Pakistani military establishment has realised that the cost of conflict with India is no longer sustainable? It is no longer just the direct economic and other costs that the hostility with India inflicts, but also the opportunity costs that the conflict imposes that are proving to be extremely expensive. Gen Bajwa’s speech was full of buzzwords like ‘connectivity’, ‘regional integration’, ‘human security’, and ‘trade and transit corridors’. All these concepts make a necessary fit for a foreign policy that puts geo-economics at its centre. Bajwa tried to hard sell Pakistan’s geo-strategic location as “a bridge between civilisations and connecting conduit between the regional economies”. He spoke about the opportunity to “unlock the untapped potential of South and Central Asia by ensuring connectivity between East and West Asia”.
But all of these grand plans will remain a non-starter without India. Perhaps the Pakistani generals have finally smelt the coffee and opened a proper atlas to realise that without access to India, Pakistan is a bridge hanging in mid-air. Connecting West Asia to East Asia, or Central Asia to South Asia, is not possible without India. The relevance of Pakistan’s geo-strategic location in the context of geo-economics is only in relation to India—a market of 1.3 billion people and an economy that by the end of this decade is expected to emerge as the third largest in the world with a GDP of over US $5 trillion. But since August 2019, Pakistan has cut off all trade and commercial links with India. Clearly, if Pakistan is serious about geo-economics, connectivity, and emerging as a trade and transit hub, it needs to get out of the blind alley in which it has been pushed by Imran Khan’s unsustainable, untenable and unviable India policy.
But this is easier said than done because as Bajwa put it, “without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of sub-continental rapprochement will always remain susceptible to derailment…” He claimed Pakistan was ready for “resumption of peace process or meaningful dialogue” but first India would have to “create conducive environment” in Jammu and Kashmir. Because Bajwa said in his speech that Pakistan was making a “deliberate” choice “based on rationality” to resolve all outstanding issues with neighbours through dialogue in a “dignified and peaceful manner”, it is being assumed that when he talks about conducive environment, he is neither talking about UN resolutions nor about reversing the constitutional reforms made in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. In his speech, at least he didn’t mention both these ‘pre-conditions’. If a dialogue is contingent on these ‘pre-conditions’, then it will be dead before it even begins.
Here is the thing: If Bajwa and his military are reconciled to burying the past, then they will have to recognise and accept the fact that after August 2019, a new situation prevails in Jammu and Kashmir. Turning the clock back in J&K is simply not on offer, if it ever was. The most that can be expected is restoration of statehood. But this will either be the result of a judicial verdict, or an executive decision. If it is the latter, then it should ideally not be done as a sop to pave the way for a dialogue; instead it should be the result of something tangible Pakistan does to stop the flow of terrorists, supply of weapons and money to terrorists, the training and operational direction given to terrorists, and the propaganda support given to terrorists in the Union Territory.
While India could certainly agree to have a conversation with Pakistan on Jammu and Kashmir, it is nothing short of delusional for anyone to think that India would ever be ready to barter Kashmir or compromise on her sovereignty in J&K either for gaining land access to Afghanistan and beyond to Central Asia, or even to become part of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). At the very least, such thinking betrays an astounding ignorance of not just India, but also basic economics, international trade and the strategy imperatives and nationalist impulses that go into the making of Indian policy. But Pakistani policy makers, and analysts and commentators who take their cues from the men in Khaki uniforms, are quite notorious for living in an alternate reality in which they invariably misread, misinterpret and miscalculate India.
Bajwa’s, and presumably the Pakistan Army’s, geo-economic vision rests on four pillars: Lasting and enduring peace within and outside; non-interference of any kind in the internal affairs of our neighbouring and regional countries; intra-regional trade and connectivity; and sustainable development and prosperity through establishment of investment and economic hubs within the region. The last two pillars of this vision are contingent on the first two pillars being erected. Without the first two pillars, the last two pillars are meaningless. So far, however, there is no evidence that Pakistan has taken any meaningful step to ensure peace in the region or to stop interfering in the internal affairs of both its neighbours on the east and west. This is critical because the entire geo-economic vision will have a chance only as a composite package. Pakistan cannot pick and choose some parts – connectivity, regional integration, positioning itself as a trade and transit hub – and reject other parts like normalisation of ties with India or continuing to fuel the violence in Afghanistan. In that sense, both Afghanistan and India are critical to Pakistan’s future vision.
Also read: Why distrust-but-verify is a prudent response to Pakistan Gen Bajwa’s call to bury the past
But, quite clearly, the implementation of the grand ‘vision’ that Gen Bajwa articulated will remain a pipedream until Pakistan walks the talk. This won’t be easy at all. There will be a lot of opposition from inside Pakistan, not just from the civilian street but also from the rank and file of the military. What Bajwa is trying to do, assuming he is trying to do it at all, is far more ambitious than what his predecessor Pervez Musharraf attempted with his four-point formula. As long as Musharraf was at the helm, everyone, including the generals, went along with him. But the moment he doffed his uniform, his formula was junked. If the backlash is very severe, the military will simply go back to its previous strategic template.
As far as India is concerned, while she is ready to dance this dance, she will be watching very carefully, and with great scepticism, every move and every step that Pakistan takes. India won’t let down her guard for a moment or get taken in by the seductive words coming from Pakistan (or so one hopes). If things move in the right direction, India will be happy to dance along; but if Pakistan reverts to form and tries to once again backstab India, it will give her yet another opportunity to expose Pakistan’s perfidy and treachery in front of the world.
Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Views are personal.
The article first appeared on the Observer Research Foundation website.
Who said statehood is coming? Why are you wanting to define Indian Foreign policy, specially that for Pakistan. India has one foreign policy for whole world and another for Pakistan. And you know why.
Let sense prevails in both countries. India being a bigger country should start first by stopping state sponsored Terrorism in Kashmir. It should also stop harassing thw minorities elsewhere in India. Why is it that India has border disputes with all its neighbors. It couldn’t be a coincidence. India knows its nefarious plans for Kashmir. But an independent Kashmir is the best solution for peace in the region. India is after all an occupying force in Kashmir. The same way India was occupied by East India Company. I hope that Indian government would stop killing innocent Kashmiris and let them live with peace. Forcibly holding a land didn’t work. It hasn’t worked for past seventy years and it won’t work in future, for sure.
Sure!
Lets bury the past!
When do you return PoK?
And pay for the wars and terrorism?
And compensate the families of Hindus and Sikhs chased out of Pakistan and for the Muslims who never left India for the land given to them?
Pakistan only reason for being, it raison d’etere, is projecting it’s fundamentalist Islamic credentials, otherwise, they would be still be called Indian. And despite their leaders many short-lived, on-again, off-again love-fest with India, the overwhelming majority of its masses are virulently against any rapprochement, far less, normalization of relations with India…this latest posturing may be just another flash in the pan, tempest in a teapot, molehill of a mountain…pick your metaphor.
What about ur anti Muslim terror brigade rss in India?
Kashmir is very much part of sentiments of Kashmiris. Instead of taking with any third parts, let’s go back to the promises we made with Kashmiris when only muslim majority state accepted secular india instead of Pakistan. Don’t make it the flashpoint of hostility between two countries. Due to jingoistic policies ,we have lost trust of Kashmiris. Anti-India sentiments have taken root even in childrens of Kashmir. Terrorism can be kept in check only when we cover the host that they get after crossing LOC. This can be done by creating atmosphere of trust and understanding between us and indians.
If Pakistan give back POK
Not to interfere in j and k issue
Stop CPEC through Gilgistan with China
Important stop funding terrorism and must eliminate their terrorists inside.
Surrender those India wants.
What issues will be their to discuss.
It is Pakistan to respond to India and settle it.
India is busy with its internal development.
Pakistan wants to remain a good neighborhood it must first settle all above.
Why so much clamour on a statement made by treacherous general. Unless and until concrete steps are taken on the ground by Pakistan never trust any statement.
No question of trusting these 2 bunch of jokes of the planet Pak n CPC (So called PRC) Good will gesture at the same time from both these haggards of the world are surely an attempt to cook some dirty broth against India N they waiting for the right time to strike simultaneously… Hence offence is now the only defence that India needs to follow
Free POK
Free Pakistan occupied Kashmir This is the right time
Dear Prime Minister free Pakistan occupied Kashmir from Pakistan Indian people will remember you forever free POK from Pakistan This is the right time This is is the right opportunity if you lose this opportunity indian people will never forgive you act immediately
Go ahead, whoz stopping you? Where are 360 terrorists which was killed after pulwama? Whole world knew how we faked it. Don’t do drama pm modi, do it in real.
this nuisance is enough,why do we want more nuisance,make loc as permanent border and both sides have peace.
(I suggest pak to leave topic of kashmir now. Plz let us live with peace. Rest pak should give some to solve there internal problems like Demolishment of mosques and slaughter of innocent shiyas wahabies and ahmadiyes.why should pak talk of peace and prosperity when A single sact of muslims in pak isn’t safe. )
The terror infrastructure in Pakistan is intact.
PAK ARMY uses organisations like LET N JAISH E MOHAMMED as mask to conduct terrorist attacks in INDIA.
Media narrative including faces like Najam sethi or Raza Rumi and all similar journalist have been on record supporting jihadist activities against INDIA. MANY a times they present the world ISPR’s narrative against INDIA in a effective way.
Pakistan must re-educate It’s population from anti HINDU jihadi producing education to a scientific and modern outlook giving education then perhaps 20 years later we might have peace with pakistan.
J&k,mumbai attack losses of life ?? How do we compensate? ? So many soldiers ??No ways j&k . If that is the case peace cannot be . how about india influence terrorist in karachi ?? We have maintained our dignity. Still no offence.
Our Prime minister Narendra Modi ji& NSA Ajit Doval ji are much much more more prudent to weigh the current blow of breeze that Imran khan contemplating to point towards us in the game of dice…. they still are nurturing Dawood Ibrahim Maulana Masood Azhar Hafiz Saed on their soil & yet throwing dices at us… let’s see what our Guardians batting it out….
Can’t trust Pak
India should resolve all the issues through dilogues so which both the countries could be good friends and as our neighbouring countries are now better than us and thr gdp are also better than us so pls forget the past and move on now and solve the issue peacefully .
Surprisingly pakistan is speaking terms for peace with first’hurdle Kashmir. Since Kashmir is not their problem if the intention is really peace they need to speak with out Kashmir hurdle. Either they have to learn on their own we have to teach with seperate classes
When you talk of hawkish elements in india and pakistan who always oppose peace between India, pakistan and particularly in kashmir the suthor Sushant Sareen is at top of the list. But then more than an ideology it is the matter of bread and butter.
we don’t oppose peace but we ill never give any part of Kashmir
The Biggest Challenge would removal of Sleeper Cells of ISI. Both countries should callback their agents.
Biased writer.
Pakistan will never change as its Islamic ideologies and outdated fundamentalism and its illeterate bearded mullas will never allow anything to surpass their religion. We indians specially the Hindus being less religious and more economic within a broad open society.
Pakistan first should project as a secular country and not a religious country. Than things can change obviously slowly. Without this it’s difficult to bargain for anything by the Indian government. It will just remain an illusion. Let’s hope.
R u a secular country? What about ur hindu brigade rss, bajrang dal, Hindu vahini, vhp etc they all are terrorists, and they have committed crimes against Indian Muslims openly. See ur face first. U r not less communal than Pakistan.
Kashmir belongs to Kashmiri only, Not to india or Pakistan. Kashmirs illegal occupation must end.
Keep dreaming and the actual Kashmiris in Jammu and Kashmir will thrive and they’re going to have a good life… You jihadists will whine and rant till you die….
sir
is it possible to have consensus within our polity the current map of india as fait accompli so that we can then sell it to the international community who will be more than willing to accept this. the pressure will be then on pakistan to accept it.
The general sounds too good to be true, its not possible for this fanatic generals to talk this language. At most this can be just a tactical move or short tactical retreat, nothing else. Don’t be gullible and don’t get fooled again and again by the same people and by the same words that they keep mouthing. Its becomes stupidity.
1)Pakistan must amend it’s constitution to gaurentee to right to practice minority religion in Pakistan.
2) Pakistan should amend it’s constitution to allow a non-muslims to run for the post of prime minister and president of Pakistan.
3) Pakistan needs to repeal blasphemy law which targets minorities in Pakistan.
India’Swadeshi movement due to corona effects bussiness development project management office dr Ambedkar Nagar Uttar Pradesh govt jv approved MoU with Uttar Pradesh govt and india looking forward to hearing from pakistan fatf and private sectors projects investment clusters businessmen development will create employment opportunities for growth in India and World including pakistan poorly sourced from World Bank pending payment which is very important for us if pakistan economy now looking down and corona effects has given jolt and now both govt forgets about fighting terrible things are going to start this food crisis’and private sectors investment in India is rising star ? in this region development will attract new opportunities for growth in southern part pakistan ka hi bhala ho sakta hai yedi developmentof talent training and farming is in good condition both the awam can love each other important religious organization trusts and estates and big bussiness houses in both the countries should forget the territory dispute resolution can be set aside to make sure a federal government ministry of education healthcare services offered through digital marketing syastem and agro industries with mou fpo JV team can develop their leadership potential for growth in India and World Bank pending payment which can give boost to rural development employment opportunities for poor people who are interested in this peace ful nature of India international laision throughout the year resolutions for meeting with both of them will created by tourism and travel expenses from the department of industrial policy through investment clusters businessmen development will be available for your response spmishra advisor PMC SJP chandersekhsregroup delhi pradesh sangathan mantri Ito office
Kashmir deserves statehood. Ideally, Jammu and Kashmir as two separate states. It ought never to have been taken away. Restoration is the right thing to do, independent of any dialogue with Pakistan. That too should not have been broken off for so long. Remarkable that the challenge to the abrogation of Article 370 lies forlorn in the honourable apex court for almost two years now. Many on social media are filled with schadenfreude over Arvind Kejriwal’s tears over the steady erosion / diminution of Delhi’s statehood.
Baised article towards Pakistan. Why don’t you talk about Indian terrorism in Balochistan & other parts of Pakistan through Afghanistan. India is already exposed through out the world by UN & other world investigative agencies. India’s fake NGO Srivastiva group & Indian chronicles were active from last so many years against Pakistan in so many countries. Writer tries to give impression , India is clean . No country in world is clean. All countries are involved directly or indirectly towards there rival countries.. Be honest don’t be baised.
Only 2 things will happen.
A sure shot of Pulwama like incident will occur as the 2 Govts talk, for derailing the process one again.
More likely, the pause will help Pakistan to recover, recoup, rewrite it’s agenda, while india will be waiting before, pakistan will once again start their non state actor insurgency having rejuvenated during the pause.
Baised piece of writing. Why don’t you talk about the Indian sponsored terrorism in Balochistan & other parts of Pakistan through Afghanistan. Fake NGO srivastiva group & Indian Chronicles etc etc already exposed in the world by UN bodies & other world investigative agencies. They were working against the interests of Pakistan through out the world from last so many years.writer is giving impression , India is clean country of the world not doing terrorism & covert /overt things in it’s neighbourhood
Pakistan and it’s Army must accept two UTs created by Indian Parliament. The only matter to be settled is about POK and GB. Apart from this, we have settle on Sir Creek issue.
Whatever may be the stance and posturing from Pak, these are the issues to be sorted. And stopping of terrorist activities from across the border is the next issue.
After this, the rest will follow. Let us not get into trap of trade first and then creating environment to settle disputes.
Dreamer
Fully agree. Pak must walk the talk first. Here , in this situation, Pakistan is in the proverbial tight spot. It has to concede so many things before talks can start. Or else, the talks are dead before arrival.
My dear world has gone through a lot of things in the past few years. It is hard to ignore the fact that China has overtaken America in every way possible and to be rooted to hollow and useless associations in future is a suicidal tendency. Russia is a friend of Pakistan now and is better placed to take advantage of the CPEC and most likely to be a prominent candidate in the area where the role is going to be handed out to it. Since the Biden government has already started the process of unrest in Afghanistan and the gulf. This will be a melting pot and will be a good place to stay in touch with. I have been thinking about the possibility of having a role reversal in the next few years for the Russian interest in the area. I have a hunch they will be backing Pakistan against India in the next few months. They have a lot of work to do in the gawader area and the neighbourhood. The future will be a bit more turbulent in a few months and things will be a bit more clear. We all know what we have seen in the past one year against China. We are not even a spec now so can expect a few more rough rides.