No government plans its future on the basis of a single strategy. That way, even if things do not go according to Plan A, then there is, at least, a Plan B; and optimistically a Plan C and so on.
The Modi government may be an exception to this rule. When it went into the last General Election, it was so sure that it would return with an enhanced majority that it only had a Plan A. And that was to continue the Modi Revolution and transform India.
As we now know, the BJP massively overestimated its prospects and the 400-plus victory that the Prime Minister bragged about never came to pass. This was a result that nobody of consequence in the BJP had ever expected.
Over the next week, even as the Opposition celebrated, the BJP scrambled to put together a Plan B. Assured of the support of allies such as Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, it acted as though nothing had really changed, that it was business as usual.
South Asian leaders arrived to greet Narendra Modi at the swearing-in. Supporters chanted “Modi Modi Modi”.There were no significant changes in the top cabinet posts to emphasise continuity. Speaker Om Birla who had earned the Opposition’s ire during the last Parliament session, for what it saw as his nakedly partisan behaviour, returned in triumph to run the Lok Sabha.
It all went quite smoothly. Even the assessment that the allies the BJP now depended on would create some awkwardness in those early days was wrong. In fact, the allies fell in line, patiently waiting for the financial allocations for their states that they had been assured were coming. (They did not have to wait too long.)
But, of course, this was still Plan B. The old dream of a continuing Modi revolution with simultaneous elections to Parliament and the states, a Uniform Civil Code, an even more openly Hindutva agenda and much more had been put on hold. Modi 3.0 could govern. But it lacked the ability to transform India or to change very much.
Also read: Govt having a hard time propping up PSUs. It must address politics-economics disconnect
New areas of vulnerability
As time has gone on, however, it is clear that even Plan B is not working.
For a start, the government’s reputation for world-class governance takes a knock every week. We compare ourselves to Western cities in the quality of our infrastructure, but throughout the monsoon nearly every major city has flooded and been brought to a standstill. The government can say, with some justification, that this is the fault of state governments and civic authorities but the overall image of a drowning India is at odds with the Rising Bharat we were promised.
It’s the same with train accidents and derailments. The government may say that the percentage of accidents now is lower than before but it does not seem that way as each week brings more bad news.
Then, there is the problem of our foreign policy, long hailed as one of the Modi government’s greatest achievements. As things stand, the only friend India has in its neighbourhood is Bhutan. We have dangerous enemies: China still occupies our territory and won’t give it back. Pakistan is back to fomenting trouble in Jammu & Kashmir. None of the other neighbouring countries have particularly warm relations with us and if violence against Hindus continues in Bangladesh, it will further damage the Prime Minister’s chosen image as defender of the faith.
That leaves the government with three mostly new and largely unexpected areas of vulnerability.
The first is the uncertainty surrounding its powers of repression. Till now, the BJP government has been able to arrest (or threaten to arrest) many political opponents on the basis of draconian laws such as the PMLA. It has kept people in jail for years without ever having to go to trial and prove its case because the judiciary has been content to play ball and deny bail. The Supreme Court, to be fair, has often lectured the country about the right to liberty but it has been slow to act and other courts have been willing to let the government lock people up and throw away the keys.
That may finally be changing. A lower court gave Arvind Kejriwal bail. The government has now charged him for basically the same alleged offence under another law just to keep him locked up. I would be very surprised if the Supreme Court did not grant him bail when that case comes before it.
The court has already granted bail to Manish Sisodia and upbraided the authorities (and the lower judiciary), reminding us again that “bail is the rule; jail is the exception”. And this time the Supreme Court is acting like it means it. Even if it takes a little time, the lower judiciary is bound to take notice. And the government’s power to threaten opponents and critics with arbitrary arrests will be significantly weakened.
A second area of vulnerability is the disaffection within the BJP’s articulate middle-class base. Rightly or wrongly, this class had huge economic expectations from the government. These expectations have been totally ignored, most notably in the Budget.
Nothing the middle class has asked for is terribly significant or excessive in revenue terms. It would be easy enough to make this traditional Modi base feel important and looked after. Instead, the government has entirely ignored the middle class and there is a growing sense that when it comes to taxes, the bureaucrats call the shots and political will has collapsed. Even hardcore BJP supporters complain about ‘tax terrorism’, especially as absurdly inflated tax notices are issued. These demands are bogus and are usually withdrawn or scaled down. But the fact that they continue to be made suggests that politicians have lost control of the Finance Ministry.
The middle-class anger is often dismissed by saying that this class has already done well and now can’t bear to see the poor getting benefits. In fact, it has nothing to do with resentment of pro-poor measures and everything to do with the perception that the government’s economic policy is designed mainly to help oligarchs who are close to the Centre.
In the early years, the middle class was happy to see the growth of industrialists even if they were known to be close to the government. It was seen as part of the India success story. But as time has gone on and the size of their holdings has multiplied beyond all reasonable expectations, the middle class has become suspicious. People ask: is this a government that has forgotten its salaried supporters and focuses only on enriching its fat cat pals?
It is a perception that has become the government’s third vulnerability and it has the potential to seriously damage the government’s image—which is why the Opposition hammers away at it every day—and yet nobody at the top seems to care. The Prime Minister continues to consort with his billionaire friends and all arms of government seem to treat the oligarchs with deference.
It is too early to say whether the allegations against the SEBI Chairman will further advance the impression that this is a system that works to benefit oligarchs. But they certainly do the government’s image no favours.
As Plan B seems to be in trouble, the government has fallen back on a new Plan C. The Bill to reform the waqf laws, which was said to be crucial to garnering Hindu support in the UP elections, has been deferred and referred to a standing committee. The Broadcast Bill, which was meant to give the government legal sanction to act against the likes of Dhruv Rathee has been withdrawn after protests and is being reworked.
In both houses of Parliament, the government’s once firm grip is weakening. The formerly all-powerful Om Birla is under constant attack from the Opposition benches. In the Rajya Sabha, a minor issue was the spark that set off a massive confrontation between the Opposition and the Chair.
The government’s new Plan C is to hold on tightly and muddle along somehow. It could work. But one day, it could also go the way of Plan A and Plan B.
Vir Sanghvi is a print and television journalist, and talk show host. He tweets @virsanghvi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)