As I tried to contact an Islamabad-based family member on Monday, I could sense in their voice the frustration of being unable to talk properly as the call kept disconnecting. The internet connection was sporadic, which was not my experience alone but that of millions in Pakistan, who for the past few days have been experiencing the state’s clampdown on social media and communication services.
There is more: All motorways in Punjab, especially routes leading to the capital, have been shut down and all private residences including students’ hostels forcibly vacated. Students who came to Islamabad from all over the country are caught between not having a place to live and not being able to travel home in time.
One could have justified this if it was being done to protect the state’s capital from some foreign attack, but it looks like Islamabad is under siege from within. The government is struggling hard to protect its mandate and push back the incarcerated former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI).
Khan’s final call
Khan issued a “final call” to his supporters on 24 November, asking them to march on Islamabad. He hoped to pressure the military and civilian government, not just to release him but to surrender to this political pressure and agree to hold elections at the earliest. The latter, he expects, will bring him back to power.
Despite many rumours from the Islamabad grapevine that Khan has been offered mid-term elections in return for some cooperation, he is relentless in exerting pressure.
Khan’s supporters from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, in particular, have continued their march to the capital. They insist on being allowed to do a sit-in at the famous D-Chowk, which is in close proximity to the parliament, the presidency, and the Pakistan Supreme Court. Some journalists I spoke with argue that Khan’s insistence on a sit-in indicates his frustration, which emanates from the realisation that he is running out of options, especially since the 26th amendment, aimed at neutralising the pro-PTI members of the higher judiciary.
Irrespective of how agitated he is, the PTI leader certainly seems to have enough power to make the government shut down not just a city but almost an entire province. As someone joked with me, it’s the government that has made an imprisoned opposition leader this powerful.
Other sources I spoke with suggest that the domestic fiasco is due to continued help from within Army circles for the opposition leader. It seems that the decision to extend the Army chief’s term has not gone down too well. In this context, the PTI rally, or those from within facilitating it, is not aimed at the government but at Pakistan COAS Asim Munir.
However, much of Khan’s strength lies in his persistence. Instead of caving in to statements that assert the government’s resolve to use force, like the one by defence minister Khawaja Asif, Khan and his wife have continued to provoke their support base to march on. The power couple knows that it would be impossible for the state machinery to evict PTI supporters from D-Chowk without using force, which would turn the sit-in into international news.
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A frustrated public
At this stage, Khan probably wants physical sacrifices from his supporters. He sees a few dead bodies as the only recipe for one side to cave in. He expects the government to fall due to a misadventure. After all, ethnic minorities like the Baluch or Pashtuns being fired upon may not bring desired results, but when people in Islamabad or Lahore are shot, it is another matter entirely.
Khan also knows that he can depend on the frustration of the general public, especially after the heavily rigged 2024 elections. The new generation of Pakistan is exhausted with the traditional power structure and continued poor governance. They believe that the PTI might be an answer to their problems. While this perception is highly debatable, the fact remains that their continued pushback in support of Khan indicates the resilience of the Pakistani people, whether they’re in the country or abroad.
For those willing to agitate for Khan’s release and hoping for his return, this is not just about restoring a man to a position of power but saving their country from a downward slide. The exhaustion from dynastic politics and traditional political cliques is real. It’s not just about the urban middle class anymore but also the lower middle class and the lower class, that seemed willing to vote for Khan during the 2024 elections.
This is not to argue that there aren’t those fearful of Khan’s return to power. The PTI leader can get vicious and venomous against those who don’t support his views. It’s also a fact that he has popularised abusive language in politics. I have also suffered from PTI lashing out against me in crude and abusive language. All these concerns notwithstanding, it is difficult to deny the underlying causes for such behaviour.
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A vulnerable Pakistan
PTI supporters aren’t simply driven by their passion for Imran Khan, but also by the anxiety at seeing Pakistan sliding down and slipping away from their grasp. It is, however, unfortunate that the desire to see Pakistan survive gets expressed in verbal and sometimes physical violence.
Some argue that pro-Palestine protests in London have drawn much larger crowds compared to those supporting PTI. But this comparison is like comparing apples to oranges. It ignores the fact that PTI protests are far more organic than the orchestrated, often paid or forced, pro-Kashmir gatherings organised by Pakistan’s embassies and high commissions abroad. The participants in recent PTI protests are highly motivated, congregating despite difficulties at their PTI leader’s call to action.
At this juncture, the Pakistan establishment is still trying to ensure that there is no congregation at D-Chowk so that the government can continue uninterrupted. Additionally, the president of Belarus is on a visit to Pakistan, which the government does not want to see marred by the PTI rally in Islamabad.
The use of force will only weaken the ruling establishment. This is a catch-22 situation for both sides. Imran Khan understands that softening his position will affect popular support while the state believes that allowing the PTI leader some space will land them in a situation where they will be forced to concede more. It’s a total sit-with-a-box-of-popcorn moment for the world watching how the game ends. Indubitably, Pakistan is at its lowest and most vulnerable domestically.
Ayesha Siddiqa is Senior Fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London. She is the author of ‘Military Inc’. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)