Even as the BJP-JD (U) combine is set to form the government in Bihar, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah face a big predicament — what to do with Nitish Kumar?
The Bihar mandate — with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 74 seats, up from its tally of 53 in 2015 as against Janata Dal (United)’s drop from 71 to 43 — is far more for Narendra Modi than it is for the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. If anything, Nitish’s image and popularity have both seen a significant dip, a factor that has possibly weighed the BJP down. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is at 125, crossing the halfway mark of 122, the RJD-Congress-Left Mahagathbandhan is seen stopping at 110.
In Bihar, the BJP has emerged as the senior ally now, and is saddled with an exhausted leader in Nitish Kumar. It is only a matter of time before the party asserts itself and takes the driver’s seat in the state. Installing Nitish Kumar amid a massive Nitish-hatao campaign isn’t going to be popular. But it can precipitate a situation where Nitish is sidelined sooner rather than later.
Nitish Kumar, who has now served three terms as the state’s chief minister, has been a pale shadow of himself in the current term — directionless, fickle and far from his earlier alluring image of sushasan babu. While Amit Shah, who spoke to the JD (U) chief Tuesday, reiterated that Nitish would remain the CM, the results do throw up a dilemma for him and Narendra Modi.
Even if the Modi-Shah duo sticks to their side of the deal for now, can they afford to allow Nitish Kumar to complete his five-year term? Letting Nitish be the face of Bihar government is most definitely going to weigh the BJP down in the 2025 assembly election, and possibly even in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Despite this sweet victory, Modi-Shah has a problem in Bihar, and it is a Nitish-sized one.
Also read: Nitish Kumar set to be sworn in as Bihar CM for 7th time as NDA holds off Tejashwi charge
Nitish’s diminishing clout
Nitish Kumar’s rise in Bihar since 2005 is what political imagination is made of. After years of what came to be seen as ‘jungle raj’ and backwardness under the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the JD (U) chief came in as a whiff of fresh air — ushering in the politics of aspiration, vikas and promise. From infrastructure development to something as simple yet powerful as the sight of girls riding bicycles to schools, Bihar saw a marked change under Nitish.
The Bihar chief minister became synonymous with good governance and aspirational vikas. His current term, however, has been drastically different. He is no longer the same Nitish — bogged down by criticism on deteriorating law and order situation, poor governance, and ill-thought-out policy decisions like the liquor ban. His own political infidelity has also caused him much harm.
Nitish’s flip-flop on the BJP, his commitment to the idea of secularism, his frequent camp-shifting and the absence of any coherent political, ideological or social thought have made him a far paler and diminished version of his earlier self. The JD (U) chief’s ‘silent’ women vote bank may have remained intact, but his reduced numbers are a reflection of his reduced stature and political clout.
For the BJP, still riding high on Modi’s popularity, Nitish Kumar, perhaps, ticked as many boxes in the liability category as he did in the asset section. This election, for the NDA, was about trying to gloss over the anti-incumbency against Nitish, and distracting with its favourite strategy — projecting BJP’s ‘face-in-chief’ Narendra Modi. The strategy worked, and the BJP has made big gains, ending up just one short of being the single-largest party, quite a feat in a state with two well-entrenched regional parties — the RJD and JD (U).
Also read: How Tejashwi went from failed cricketer & a Lok Sabha disaster to almost chief minister
Modi-Shah’s quandary
There is, perhaps, nothing more heady and intoxicating for Modi and Shah than an election victory. And Bihar, which it lost in 2015 in what was seen as an embarrassment to the PM, is a particularly delicious treat. But the Modi-Shah duo has the tendency to worry about the next election, even before the last button on the EVM is pressed.
They know that if Nitish was the weak link in this election, he will definitely be a burden in the next. The BJP, at 110, contested five seats less than the JD (U), and yet managed to win 31 seats more than its ally. There is no way to tell how the BJP would have performed had it not been in alliance with Nitish, but given the surge it has witnessed, there is little doubt that Modi has carried the day and is perhaps popular enough to have pulled off the entire election on his own. JD (U)’s loss has been BJP’s gain, and with this, the latter has established who the dominant, more popular and election-ready party in Bihar now is.
Modi is now well into his second term as PM, and the current tenure has been anything but flattering. However, the sheen around Modi and his image — of being a leader who stands for ‘integrity’, good governance and is a voice of the kaamdaar refuses to fade. There is nothing that would irk Narendra Modi more than allowing a leader who seems jaded, not fully in control and with greatly diminished popularity to lead the coalition. People often vote for Modi and get a raw deal in return. But by giving them a tried-tested-almost rejected Nitish, the BJP knows its voters may not be forgiving in the next election.
Nitish Kumar has declared that this is his last election, but Modi-Shah have their eyes set on ruling the country and as many states as they can, at least for the next few years to come. The weight of a five-year Nitish term could bog the BJP and its chances down in the 2025 assembly polls, especially given the resurgence of a young Tejashwi Yadav. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah know well this isn’t the baggage they can, or would, like to carry. When and how to dump Nitish, therefore, will be the duo’s big conundrum and mission.
Views are personal.