Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s virtual meeting with chief ministers on the West Asia war on Friday looked quite familiar. He invoked ‘Team India’ and asked them to act against hoarders and profiteers, take care of migrant workers, and ensure uninterrupted supply of essential goods. He told them that addressing the challenges posed by the Israel-US-Iran war is “a shared responsibility”. Essentially, don’t blame the Centre alone if you face any hardship due to the West Asia crisis now or later. Fair enough. There is nothing wrong in PM Modi reminding the states of their responsibilities. But does it ring a bell? Well, it reminds us of the Covid-era strategy.
There can be no comparison between the Coronavirus crisis and the one posed by the West Asia war. One was about people’s lives while the other is about the amenities of life and livelihood. There is, however, a reason for the PM himself referring to the Covid crisis in the current context. Making the fight against the pandemic a collective responsibility had enabled the Modi government to shield itself even when it was virtually “missing” during the second wave of Covid, which exposed the health infrastructure crisis with a massive shortage of oxygen cylinders, hospital beds, and even basic testing facilities.
Remember the Outlook magazine’s “Missing” cover, which said that if the government was found, citizens of India should be informed.
It didn’t hurt the Bharatiya Janata Party electorally, though. While several live-streamed PM-CMs’ meetings to ensure that collective response staved off any blowback to the BJP during the critical phases of the crisis, the ruling party at the Centre reaped massive electoral dividends from the vaccination programme and free foodgrains — and deservedly so. That should explain PM Modi’s emphasis on ‘shared responsibility’ with the CMs to ensure availability of petrol, diesel, and LPG. “PM calls for special attention in border and coastal States to address emerging challenges related to shipping, essential supplies, and maritime operations,” said an official release.
All poll-bound states fall in this category (border and coastal states) and therefore, the PM’s call for attention was also meant for Mamata Banerjee, Pinarayi Vijayan, MK Stalin, and Himanta Biswa Sarma. They were not invited to the PM’s meeting, though.
A two-pronged strategy
Invocation of the Covid-19-time collective responsibility principles is one of the two prongs the BJP is deploying to blunt the Opposition’s attack on the government for its response to the West Asia crisis. The other prong is an updated version of how the BJP used the Russia-Ukraine war in its campaign during the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and other states in early 2022. Remember how PM Modi referred to the “uthal puthal” or turmoil in the world while addressing an election meeting in Bahraich?
“Bharat becoming powerful is imperative not just for Bharat but for the entire humanity. Every single vote of yours will make Bharat powerful…. Don’t you want a mazboot (strong) teacher and daroga?” said the PM. Therefore, responsibility of such a big country, such a big state, should also be on strong shoulders, he added. Cinestar-turned-BJP MP Hema Malini said in an election meeting in Bareilly that PM Modi commands so much global respect that he is “taking part in Russia-Ukraine war to stop it”. “Iske liye sab log vinati kar rahe hain hamare Modi ji se (everybody is imploring our Modi ji to stop the war),” she said.
Why I call the ruling party’s strategy in the current context as an “updated version” of the one used in the 2022 election is because no BJP leader is talking about world powers pleading to PM Modi to intervene in the current conflict. It’s more nuanced, showcasing PM Modi’s relations with global leaders but not chest-thumping. “Several people from Kerala are living in areas affected by the war. Since the onset of the conflict, I have been in constant touch with the heads of those countries. All nations are giving high priority to the safety of Indians,” The Indian Express quoted the PM as saying during a campaign in Palakkad, Kerala, on Sunday.
He accused the Congress of making dangerous statements about this conflict for political gains, which could put the lives of Indians at risk.
So, while the Russia-Ukraine war saw the BJP projecting PM Modi as a ‘vishwaguru’ who could end international conflicts, the party has made a nuanced shift in its electoral strategy vis-à-vis the West Asia war. The PM is still dialling the who’s who in the world to deliberate over the war, but it’s not about his global stature and more about the interests of Indians. It’s not just because chest-thumping can be tricky in a Trumpian world. It’s more because the people back home are now feeling the heat of the war outside.
In the 2022 Assembly elections amid the Russia-Ukraine war, PM Modi’s BJP emerged the winner. Can he repeat the same in the current elections? Depends. First of all, unlike in 2022, the current round of elections is not about PM Modi. It’s about Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Stalin in Tamil Nadu, and Vijayan in Kerala — their popularity and governance or the lack of it.
Also read: Iran war is sure to bring recession in US—common man in India will also suffer
A lesson for Opposition
PM Modi remains the BJP’s biggest vote-catcher — except probably in Assam where CM Himanta is a bigger draw — but the extent of pro or anti-incumbency is likely to determine the results. Current elections are largely centred on local, not global, issues. Second, if at all the West Asia crisis becomes a poll issue — as the Opposition is trying to do — PM Modi may be confronted with many uncomfortable questions. For instance, in February 2021, when the petrol price breached Rs-100 mark, PM Modi blamed it on the Congress, saying that the middle class wouldn’t have been over-burdened if the previous governments had reduced energy import dependence.
“Can we be so import dependent? I don’t want to criticise anyone but I want to say had we focussed on this subject earlier, our middle-class would not have been burdened,” he reportedly said.
He can’t blame it on the Opposition any more. Because India’s dependence on imported crude oil has only increased since 2014. As my former editor at Business Standard, AK Bhattacharya, wrote in ThePrint: “Since 2014, India’s indigenous crude oil output has been falling every year. Domestic crude oil output fell from 35.9 million tonnes in 2014-15 to 26.49 million tonnes in 2024-25. In the current year, production from April 2025 to February 2026 was 23.81 million tonnes, signifying that the declining trend will continue this year as well.” From 2014-15 to 2024-25, crude oil imports rose from 189 million tonnes to 243 million tonnes. “Dependence on imported crude oil thus went up from 84 per cent in 2014-15 to 90 per cent last year,” wrote Bhattacharya.
The Modi government may go to town talking about excise duty cuts on petrol and diesel to protect consumers from rising international crude oil price, but this temporary poll-time relief can’t make up for its failure to reduce energy import dependence, something the PM criticised his predecessors for.
The Opposition seems to see a big electoral opportunity in the West Asia crisis. In a recent X post, the Trinamool Congress took a jibe at the Modi government: “Welcome to the queue economy. 2016 to 2026: A decade of standing in line in @naredramodi’s New India.” It contained four images of those queues — 2016 ATM (demonetisation), 2020 oxygen (Covid), 2025-26 SIR, and 2026 LPG.
There is, however, a sobering lesson for the Opposition in how the first three played out for the BJP in elections so far.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)