One of the thankless jobs of India’s security and defence agencies is to work out scenarios on how our enemies—even frenemies like the US and China—will strike next. You have to think like the enemy and his backers to know where and how to defend yourself.
Terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir or hobnobbing with Khalistani elements will only get Pakistan so far with India. After being quietly humbled during Operation Sindoor, what will Islamabad try next? Since the 1970s, Pakistan has known it can’t defeat India in a conventional war, so it turned to terrorism. But if that too isn’t working, what is next? As C. Christine Fair wrote more than a decade ago in her book, Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War, the Pakistani army can accept tactical defeat many times over, but its overarching goal is to be seen as poking India in the eye, causing damage.
My best guess is that Pakistan’s next attempt at riling India will focus on damaging economic assets. The one thing that bothers Pakistan, China, and the US is the global talk about India’s resilient economy and its inevitable rise as the third pole in geopolitics over the next 10-15 years. And what better way to delay this emerging reality?
War of words
Our own security establishment seems to be assessing this possibility. Earlier this month, India proactively upped the ante against Pakistan not once, but twice. First, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh spoke in Bhuj, which is close to the Pakistan border in Gujarat, on Vijayadashami Day.
Noting the build-up of military infrastructure near Sir Creek, he warned Pakistan: “If Pakistan dares to act in the Sir Creek Sector, the reply will be so strong that it will change both history and geography. In 1965, the Indian Army showed courage by reaching Lahore, and in 2025, Pakistan must remember that the road to Karachi also passes through the Creek,” he said. Indian forces could “cross any border whenever necessary”.
Why talk about Sir Creek, unless there is a real possibility of some kind of attack starting in this area, with Gujarat being right across the border?
Singh’s strong statement was followed up by another, from Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi, in Rajasthan, again on the western front. He said that India’s restraint shown during Operation Sindoor would not be repeated in the next military conflict. Pakistan, he said, must stop sponsoring terrorism if it wants to “retain its place on the world map”.
Two back-to-back aggressive statements by India drew the expected over-the-top response from Pakistan. “In the face of highly provocative statements of the Indian Defence Minister and its Army and Air Chiefs, we caution that a future conflict might lead to cataclysmic devastation. In case a fresh round of hostilities is triggered, Pakistan shall not hold back. We shall resolutely respond, without any qualms or restraint,” Pakistan Army said in a statement.
Signs of Operation Sindoor 2.0
Why did Rajnath Singh and Gen Dwivedi see the need to make strong statements just at this time?
Nobody will, of course, say anything on the timing, but it is clear Pakistan is itching for a second round of hostilities after the first (after Pahalgam) failed to give it any talking points beyond unverified claims of downing a few Indian fighter aircraft. India, on the other hand, showed the damage it did to Pakistani terror hubs, airbases, and aircraft, all while destroying every incoming drone and missile before they did any damage.
Post-Operation Sindoor, Pakistan’s internal problems and the border faceoff with Afghanistan may force the army to act against India in a bid to redeem its image. The only reason the Pakistani army wields so much power and is the only institution trusted by its people is opposition to India.
Pakistan lost no time after Operation Sindoor in mending ties with the US and seeking its blessings, both economically and militarily, something US President Donald Trump seems willing to do. This hyper-agility shows that the next round may not be far off. India must prepare not for a pause of years, but possibly only weeks or months at best. This is the only likely explanation for Rajnath Singh’s and Gen Dwivedi’s strong statements. The hope is that words will deter Pakistan for some time.
The question is: where should one expect the next attack outside Jammu & Kashmir, which, anyway, is heavily policed by the Army and central security forces?
Consider where Rajnath Singh made his statement: Bhuj. I guess that in the next round, Pakistan will seek to inflict some economic damage in Gujarat, which is home to two of the largest refineries in the world—Reliance’s and Nayara Energy’s. It also hosts many ports run by the Adani Group. A couple of direct missile hits on any of these targets will dent economic confidence in the India story. Crude and petro-goods globally will flare up.
Trump’s motives
The US is beginning to rearm Pakistan, which is already being helped by China with stealth aircraft and surveillance, and real-time battlefield intelligence. America may not be unhappy if the Pakistanis target refineries and infrastructure in Gujarat. For many obvious reasons:
One, America and Europe already think that India benefits from cheap Russian crude purchases, while also making good money on the refined products sold to Europe. If the refinery targeted is Nayara, owned by Russian company Rosneft (already under European sanctions), all the better. If the US and Europe did not bat an eyelid to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines, why would they balk at letting Pakistan take the blame (or credit) for doing the same to India?
Two, Gujarat is home to not only two of India’s richest businessmen, Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, but is also the political base of the country’s two most powerful politicians, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. The US appears to believe that bringing down the two businessmen a notch could weaken the Modi regime.
Three, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently at its weakest, with its total squadron strength down to under 31 (just about matching Pakistan’s air force) as the old MiGs are being retired. Pakistan may see this as an opportunity to inflict real damage now, knowing that waiting for a few more years would allow India to bolster its squadrons through rising domestic production of Tejas Mk1A and possible induction of some Su-57 and Rafale units, both still under consideration.
The economic frontier
A relatively weakened IAF may be wary of using all its resources to counter the Pakistani Air Force (PAF). Since we cannot shift forces from the Chinese border to the western front, not to speak of the porous Bangladesh borders, the possibility of Pakistan inflicting economic costs is not small. The probability of 100 per cent success against Pakistani drones and missiles next time is far lower than in the four-day conflict of May 2025.
Some military observers believe that a huge air force may not be necessary to deter Pakistan in an age of hypersonic missiles, long-range land-based artillery and drones. But that theory is yet to be tested in a prolonged, real conflict. Clearly, we must arm ourselves quickly with more effective radars, drones, and missiles to overcome the air combat deficiency. Right now, we don’t have the kind of airpower needed to deter Pakistan in the short run.
If we assume that Pakistan wants to draw blood this time, will not mind taking a few losses itself, and will attack economic assets in Gujarat (or elsewhere) that are easy to aim for from across the border, we have our work cut out. Internal saboteurs will also be used—consider the hoax bomb threats to Indian airlines and Delhi’s schools, and the attempts to derail trains using cheap gas cylinders or even logs of wood.
The potential for economic damage is significant, taking both external and internal factors into account. Nor is the attempt to cause economic damage anything new for Pakistan. In the 1993 Mumbai blasts and the 26/11 terror attacks in 2008, the targets were chosen to cause a loss of economic confidence. Both targets were in Mumbai, with the 1993 blasts targeting the stock exchange among others, and the 2008 one targeting both the Taj and Oberoi hotels. If Mumbai was seen as the base of India Inc, this time it could well be Gujarat, home to two of our biggest business conglomerates and politicians. Gujarat is also closer than Mumbai.
Worse, neither the US nor China may mind India being economically set back in the short term, not least because India’s stronger macroeconomy has so far countered the US-imposed export slowdown caused by high tariffs with a domestic monetary and fiscal stimulus. The stock markets have also remained resilient due to high domestic retail investment flows.
But if war causes a drop in domestic and external confidence in the Indian economy, growth will slow down, consumers will start saving instead of spending, and more state resources will be shifted to boost war-time defence production and imports. This will lower the boom on the Indian economy, especially the stock markets. India, growing at 5-6 per cent, will feel the economic pain more than one growing at 6.5-7 per cent, as of now.
India’s short-term economic vulnerability remains. While Pakistan, driven by extreme anti-India, anti-Hindu sentiment, will not mind paupering itself to cause damage to India, we are not the same. We must stop thinking about the last conflict and prepare urgently for the next one, which may be coming very shortly.
Also read: America imagines Asim Munir is the cure to jihadism. He is the disease
Three-step action plan
One, make our domestic economy very strong. It can be done by unleashing the forces of private entrepreneurship quickly through extensive deregulation, delicensing and privatisation. Tax terrorism must stop.
Two, we must accelerate domestic defence production of critical drones and missiles, and quickly implement military theatre commands so that our armed forces can operate optimally without having to work through inter-service frictions. An impending war is the best time to push through these changes. In peacetime, the three services will always resist integration. A buildup of critical minerals and energy supplies will also be needed.
Three, we must dial down on internal polarisation, never mind how many short-term political dividends it brings both for the ruling party and the opposition.
We need to change our mindsets as of yesterday.
R Jagannathan is the former editorial director, Swarajya magazine. He tweets @TheJaggi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)