The Budget-making process will soon get under way in the finance ministry. The fiscal outlook is the grimmest in at least three decades, and the challenges probably without precedent. Non-debt revenue in the previous two years (2018-19 and 2019-20) grew slower than nominal GDP (actual growth plus inflation). This year’s nominal GDP will at best match last year’s Rs 204 trillion, with inflation neutralising the drop in real numbers. The government’s non-debt revenue is unlikely to match that, since in the first half of the year it seems to have run at barely two-thirds of last year’s level — that is, a much bigger drop than in nominal GDP for April-September. The second half of the year should do better, but non-debt revenue in relation to GDP will almost certainly shrink for a third successive year.
The gap, rather chasm, will have to be bridged through borrowing. The government has indicated a limit of Rs 12 trillion, compared to Rs 8 trillion provided in the Budget. It is likely to be more than that. From financing just over a quarter of government expenditure three years ago, borrowing this year could end up financing well over 40 per cent of it.
Any housewife will know that this is unsustainable, even as demands have grown more urgent for increased government expenditure on defence, social security, and infrastructure. So no compression of expenditure should be expected. The circle will have to be squared by raising more revenue beyond the recovery in taxes, which should be expected as the economy starts growing again.
How is more revenue to be raised? Under pressure because of the international trend of lowering corporate tax rates, the government has dropped tax rates for companies. But it has raised the rates for individuals to a peak of nearly 43 per cent for those earning more than Rs 5 crore. There is little that can be done on either of these, other than to close some tax loopholes that companies use, and raise the tax rates on capital gains. The government could also re-introduce wealth tax, which had been dropped by Arun Jaitley because the revenue was small. Such measures might send the stock market reeling and give some the pleasure of schadenfreude, since there will be fewer billionaires, the surviving billionaires will have fewer billions, and wealth inequality will have reduced. It is unlikely, though, that much revenue will be forthcoming because the really wealthy have already worked out tax shelters. Your garden variety high-net-worth individual will feel the pinch, though.
Also read: Tax revenues decline 22% in April-September, at one-fourth of full year target
Every option comes with a price tag
It might be more remunerative to introduce a tax on corporate assets or net worth, in addition to the tax on profits. The revenue is likely to be more, because the largest companies will end up paying the most. But for that very reason the impact on the stock market will be greater, even as large numbers of companies that barely make a profit get hit the hardest. Such a tax would also encourage firms to finance growth by accumulating debt instead of issuing equity, to reduce the size of net assets. Such an increase in leverage will bring with it risks, by reducing companies’ ability to withstand periodic downturns.
On the indirect tax side, the rates for goods and services tax (GST) average much lower than what was considered a revenue-neutral rate. Tax theory advises against raising the rates for such a tax in a recession; indeed, various troubled businesses have been asking for reductions in GST rates. But a government under extreme fiscal pressure may feel tempted to bite the bullet during an economic upswing. More revenue would come at the cost of a slower recovery, and fuel inflation that is already too high.
And so every option before the finance minister comes with a price tag. What the minister could hope for is a deus ex machina, or an act of god in the form of N.K. Singh, chairman of the Finance Commission, whose report is due. If it recommends a smaller tax share for states, the Centre will get more money. What that would do to “cooperative federalism”, you don’t need to guess.
By Special Arrangement with Business Standard.
Also read: Why emerging markets like India are wary of using modern monetary theory to fix the economy
A lazy effort. Nothing insightful.
Our beloved Prime Minister and the learned Finance Minister have no clue as to how to handle the economy. Economy is left Ram Bharose
Indias economy is paying through a really tough time and we were under severe stress before corona also, so entire blame should not go to corona. Wrong economic policies and pathetic implementations in last 6 years have multilevel our troubles.
Don’t belive in the myth that modi will drive us out of this, he is good in many other areas but he does not understand about how our national economy works, he is clueless on the solution and remitting on any act of God only!
Such media channels,are not interested in pure economics and improvements of commerce.They push their political agenda,and indirectly work to reinstate lameduck governments ,allowing corrupt politicians,to make money,but allowing these media houses to carry on destroying india’s native values
This article is meaningless. We all know that there are serious problems in bridging the fiscal deficit and any solution will result into some or the other collateral problems, until economy gets back to normal rate of growth. So we should leave it to the FM to handle it as best as one can.
However, as a structural reform, FM should seriously look at wealth tax on personal and corporate assets (financial asset and real estate) above some threshold level and abolish income tax completely. Given that PAN and Aadhar tracks everything now, it would be easy to assess such tax through the system and enforcing it will be much easier.
Of course, Modi should get out of all PSBs and PSUs and get out of running any business. Earlier this is achieved, better it is.
FM can change the budget making process to bring in transparency, put taxation proposals for public discussion and remove secrecy out of the process and get rid of that stupid practice of 30 day lockdown/ quarantine for the Finance Ministry budget team. FRBM needs to go or get revamped with total deficit accounted for.
This is Mr.know no article. All negative statements. How people are stooping low to ctisize the government
Well said
How much biased journalism will you do
Modi himself can revive it. Dont worry.
Also why do you need email id to post comments?
I do not know about Madam Sitaraman, but our beloved Prime Minister Shri Narendraji Modiji has in a recent interview declared India will achieve $5 trillion economy by 2024.