After a vicious election campaign, it seems that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance will form a coalition government. Even though the BJP coined it, there is a political and public consensus on the national goal—Viksit Bharat by 2047. By then, in all likelihood, at approximately 7 per cent GDP growth, India will be a $21 trillion economy and likely to cross the threshold of a ‘developed country’.
As the third-largest economy in 2047, it will logically strive to become a world power and position itself as the third pole in the international arena. This requires absolute strategic autonomy to safeguard our national interests, which, in turn, requires a national security vision for 2047, a national security strategy reviewed every five years and a national defence policy to transform the military.
Despite the BJP’s huge majority and ideological commitment to national security, its performance and reform agenda of the last 10 years was high on rhetoric and low on substance. Under its watch, China re-secured the 1959 Claim Line for the first time since 1962 in all areas except the Indus Valley and denied us control over 1,000 square km of territory. Even after taking some path-breaking decisions like the appointment of CDS and tri-services integration and Atmanirbharta in defence, NDA 2.0 displayed a lack of political will, supervision and drive in execution. In my view, the primary reason for its lackadaisical track record is the failure to formulate a formal national security strategy and defence policy. The BJP has gotten another chance, albeit from a weakened position, to initiate the much-needed national reforms.
Also read: Three reasons why govt is apprehensive of a National Security Strategy document for India
National security vision and strategy
Despite all instruments to manage national security in place—Cabinet Committee on Security, National Security Council (which includes Strategic Policy Group, National Security Advisory Board and Joint Intelligence Committee), Defence Planning Committee and Chief of Defence Staff—our approach to national security in general and military transformation reflects a lack of a formal visionary and holistic approach.
National security is an overarching concept that encompasses various elements including geo-strategic, military, economic, resource, energy, informational, food, health, environmental, cyber security, etcetera. The military instrument provides physical security and acts as an enforcer when national interests are threatened.
In its 2018 revamp of higher management of national security, the government created and gave primacy to the Defence Planning Committee under the NSA and made it responsible for the formulation of the national security strategy and all higher defence planning, which is the domain of the Ministry of Defence/CDS. Despite this unusual structure, which gives primacy to the military domain, we still do not have a formal NSS.
The pitfalls of the existing system are best exemplified by the views of the present CDS General Anil Chauhan, his predecessor General Bipin Rawat, and a former COAS, General MM Naravane, who handled the crisis in Eastern Ladakh.
CDS General Chauhan, in an open forum, said, “When we talk about the national security strategy, I believe it consists of policy, processes, and practices to succeed…probably all three are addressed. The only thing missing is a written policy. I don’t know why people insist on that.”
His predecessor, General Rawat, said exactly the opposite, “Some important steps that we need to take include defining the national security strategy, higher defence strategic guidance, structural reforms in higher defence and operational organisations.”
On 29 December 2022, General Naravane said, “Defence strategy…has to flow out of a national security strategy. Unless there is a national security strategy in place, to just keep talking about theaterisation is actually putting the cart before the horse.”
Clearly, something is amiss.
Formulation of the national security strategy must revert to the National Security Council. The Defence Planning Committee, which logically should formulate the national defence policy, must revert to the MoD/CDS. The government must, at the earliest, carry out a long-term strategic review to formalise a ‘National Security Vision 2047’, and based on this formalise a progressive NSS reviewed every five years or earlier if required. Without a national security strategy, synergised strategic planning can not take place as all instruments tend to work in isolation and the military instrument resorts to “arming without aiming”. India must declare it to specify its national interests and the resolve to defend them. The nation must know how Viksit Bharat 2047 will safeguard its national interests.
Also read: Congress, BJP manifestos strangely silent on transforming military to make India a great power
National defence policy
National security strategy paves the way for the national defence policy, which encompasses planning and management to achieve the national defence objectives specified. It lays down the framework, which links the national security strategy to the development and continuous refinement of the military instrument in terms of planning, management and execution. National defence policy ensures the optimum utilisation of the defence budget to build up the armed forces’ capabilities. National military strategy is guided by both national security strategy and national defence policy and deals with the actual application of the military instrument.
Barring incremental changes forced by crisis, military transformation has been at a standstill for the last two decades. Meanwhile, there has been a quantum jump in military technology. You cannot fight the wars of the 21st century with a military of the 20th century. The Armed Forces requires restructuring, reorganisation and infusion of technology. Transformation must be top-down in terms of concept, policy, timelines and coordination. And its execution must be bottom-up. Unfortunately, we are following only a bottom-up approach, which leads to little or no progress. A case in point is our five-year experience with tri-service integration and the creation of theatre commands. The Defence Minister’s Operational Directive, which has not been revised since 2009, and the armed forces’ Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan which is focused on procurement, are not substitutes for a comprehensive national defence policy.
It is time for the defence minister to take charge and formalise an all-encompassing national defence policy through the CDS for the transformation of the military with clearly defined timelines, just as China has done.
Also read: Don’t wait for National Security Strategy. Bring theatre command system, first things first
Stagnating defence budget
A universal norm is to spend three per cent of the GDP on national security. India too followed this norm from 1963 to 2010 to fight the wars of the 20th century. But for the last decade, our defence budget has been hovering around two per cent of the GDP. With this allocation, only incremental change is possible.
An allocation of three per cent will ensure our defence budget steadily increases from the current $83.6 billion to $120 billion in 2024-25 and $240 billion by 2034 when our GDP doubles. This is the minimum requirement for military transformation to keep pace with times. By 2047, our budget based on a $21 trillion GDP will be $630 billion, which is befitting for a great power.
Self-reliance in defence
Aatmanirbharta in defence is the best military reform of the BJP government, as without it we can not become a great power. However, its execution has been tardy, with legacy mindsets, dominance of procedure over delivery, poor management practices and inadequate emphasis on research and development.
The government must appoint a dynamic minister for defence production, preferably one with a defence background.
The Defence Research and Development Organisation must be reformed as per the recommendations of the VijayRaghavan Committee. Defence research and development policy must flow out of the national defence policy, with a long-term technology perspective plan linked to military transformation. Research should also be outsourced to the private sector with a clear forecast for future requirements of the Armed Forces.
Recent wars have shown two parallel streams of military technology. One is available in sophisticated aircraft, weapon platforms, missiles, drones and autonomous systems. These systems are prohibitively expensive. During the Ukraine war, the stocks of the entire Western world were exhausted and production had to be revitalised. The same was true for Russia.
The second stream uses much less sophisticated and cheaper technology to either neutralise the expensive missile systems or force their disproportionate use to neutralise cheap attack systems. The defence against average technology Iranian missile/drone attack on 13 April cost Israel over $1 billion, and a similar amount was probably spent by its allies. India will have to strike a judicious balance to exploit both streams of technology.
I have highlighted only the macro issues, which must be immediately addressed by the new government. Without a national security strategy, a government-owned and monitored national defence policy and the requisite defence budget to execute both, all of which are in the political domain, military transformation is a non-starter. Prime Minister Modi’s legacy is on the line, he must seize the initiative.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
Reforms will take knowledgeable civilian leadership. Defense is too technical and specialized to be led by a well-meaning generalist. Ditto with defense production. With the possible exception of Parrikar (for defense production), India since Independence has had Defense Ministers without a National Security background. The bureaucracy supporting him/ her is also made up of smart people, but without domain knowledge- there is no equivalent to the IFS on the Defense side. To even come close the Goldwater reforms in the US or what China has effected, India needs knowledgeable civilian leaders and bureaucrats. Not sure if we’ll see that anytime soon.
How have we survived since 1947 without a National Security Strategy. Actually one feels deeply troubled by the growing militarisation of discourse. India has both nuclear weapons and conventional capabilities that are costing us close to. $ 100 billion a year. Does not cover other nations’ land. Also a million men in the CAPF, which is excessive for a representative democracy, not a colonial power. How can we become a developed country by 2047 with this level and quality of the education system, public healthcare inadequacies shown up during the pandemic. One hopes there will be constructive diplomatic engagement with both China and Pakistan during the third term. Keep becoming net security provider for the Indo – Pacific and other vanities for a future date.
All monies for freebies, subsidies, reservation, and loan waivers. No money for national security.