After winning assembly elections in three states in 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing BJP workers in Delhi, mocked the opposition’s push for a caste census, calling it an attempt to divide the country. “For me, there are only four castes in India — women, youth, farmers, and the poor,” he said. However, the Modi government’s recent shift on the caste census has raised questions about its political motivations.
After all, since 2023, both Modi and other top BJP leaders have portrayed the Congress and regional parties’ demand for a caste census as a conspiracy to divide society. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath even raised the slogan “Batenge to katenge” (if we divide, we’ll be destroyed) to consolidate Hindu society.
In fact, in 2021, the Modi government had outrightly rejected any proposal for a caste census in Parliament. And yet, after a recent meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), the government announced that caste data would be included in the upcoming census — a move that shocked the opposition. BJP leaders described it as a “surgical strike” on Rahul Gandhi’s demand for a caste census.
But the big question is: why has the BJP — which long vacillated on this issue — now agreed to conduct a caste census? What political gain does the BJP hope to derive from this decision? Could this signal a new phase in the political empowerment of backward castes? And will this force Mandal-era parties like the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to rethink their strategies? That’s why the caste census is ThePrint’s Newsmaker of the Week.
Also read: Telangana caste survey result is an opportunity and trap for Rahul Gandhi
Modi government caste census U-turn
One major reason behind the BJP’s 2014 victory was its ability to go beyond its traditional Brahmin-Baniya voter base. Through social engineering, it formed a broader social coalition with OBCs, Dalits, and Adivasis.
But in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, many backward castes — alarmed by the BJP’s alleged plans to change the Constitution — shifted to the INDIA coalition bloc. The BJP, despite building the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and banking on Hindutva, dropped from 303 seats to 240 and became dependent on allies like Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP). In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav’s sharp OBC-Dalit arithmetic outmanoeuvred Modi, whom the BJP had projected as the biggest OBC leader. BJP suffered heavy setbacks in Rajasthan and Maharashtra too.
Although the BJP regained some ground through victories in assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, strategists within the party were worried. Congress chief ministers in Karnataka and Telangana had begun implementing caste surveys, which threatened to chip away at BJP’s OBC base, which the party had built through social engineering.
Adding to this, the last nationwide caste survey was conducted in 1931; the 1941 census included caste enumeration, but the report was never published. In 2011, leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav pushed the Manmohan Singh-led UPA to conduct a caste census. While the Group of Ministers under Pranab Mukherjee recommended it, the government settled for a Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC)—the findings of which were never released by the Modi government.
The warning signs became starker after the 2024 election results. According to CSDS data, in Bihar, the NDA lost 12% of the Kurmi-Kori OBC vote (compared to 2019), while the INDIA bloc gained 9%—almost entirely at the NDA’s expense. Among other OBCs, NDA’s loss was a massive 21%. Among Dalit groups like Dusadh, Pasi, and Jatav, NDA lost 19%, while the INDIA bloc gained 28%. In Uttar Pradesh, the NDA lost 19% of the Kurmi-Kori vote and 13% of other OBCs, while the INDIA bloc gained 20% and 16%, respectively.
These numbers confirmed that the social alliance the BJP built over the past decade was beginning to crack. BJP strategists realised that combining Mandal and Kamandal politics was no longer optional—it was essential. The decision to allow caste enumeration was thus a calibrated political move, coming just ahead of the Bihar Assembly election. It’s also expected to benefit the NDA in Bihar, where JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar was the first leader to conduct a caste survey and extend reservations to Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Mahadalits—a 43 per cent vote bank that the BJP also wants to tap.
With the caste census, NDA hopes to strengthen its appeal among non-dominant OBC groups — many of whom feel marginalised. In states like UP and Bihar, backward groups like Mauryas and Kushwahas are increasingly challenging dominant Yadavs. A new kind of empowerment politics may begin, with smaller OBC groups demanding representation proportional to their actual numbers.
Also read: What’s behind Modi govt’s U-turn on caste census & how it targets Oppn ahead of crucial Bihar polls
How Modi govt quickly corrects course
According to BJP leaders, a key trait of the Modi government is its responsiveness. If it senses that public sentiment is strong, it doesn’t hesitate to reverse course.
When Rahul Gandhi labelled the Modi government a “suit-boot ki sarkar,” the BJP responded by launching welfare schemes like Jan Dhan and Ujjwala for the poor.
Demonetisation, too, was framed as a surgical strike on the rich to benefit the poor.
In 2015, when Rahul Gandhi used the land acquisition bill to woo farmers, the government quietly shelved the reform.
After BJP lost the 2018 assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh — and saw protests from upper castes — it quickly passed a 10 per cent EWS reservation.
The farm laws, introduced in Modi’s second term, were repealed once farmers from around the country staged a protest in Delhi lasting over a year.
Likewise, after years of opposing the caste census, the Modi government realised that Hindutva alone couldn’t hold its social base together. To expand its appeal among backward castes, it embraced the caste census.
Mandal 2.0, OBC sub-categorisation, and more quotas
The move, however, raises thorny questions. The government must now decide whether to use the central OBC list or incorporate state-specific lists, which differ significantly. Another dilemma is whether to count upper castes as a single group or disaggregate them, as Bihar did. Each of these choices carries political and administrative consequences.
Political experts say that once the caste census data is released, the government will also have to address the issue of sub-categorisation within OBCs. The Rohini Commission was set up to tackle this — to identify less dominant OBC groups and ensure they get better access to government jobs. Although the commission submitted its report, the government never released it, fearing backlash.
For instance, in Bihar, Yadavs have disproportionately benefited from OBC quotas. If BJP can rally less powerful OBC groups, it could dent Tejashwi Yadav’s vote base. But in states like UP, Jharkhand, and across South India, where Kurmis (a BJP-aligned OBC group) dominate, any quota redistribution might hurt BJP’s existing support.
That’s why the Rohini Commission report remains under wraps. But with caste census data incoming, demands for restructured quotas will likely grow. The government will need to manage these tensions carefully — expanding reservation limits while preserving social harmony.
However, this also risks alienating BJP’s traditional upper-caste base. For now, though, the government is unwilling to jeopardise its hold on the backward caste vote — especially with Congress and Mandal-era parties eyeing the same turf.
(Edited by Prashant)