Nepal blocking China’s Panchen Lama visit is rare resistance. It’s not enough

Representative Image | Thousands of Buddhists, monks celebrate Gautam Buddha's 2568th birth anniversary in Lumbini | ANI

In a rare display of unified resistance, Nepal’s government agencies have reportedly united to block the China-appointed Panchen Lama, Gyaincain Norbu’s entry. Widely seen as Beijing’s puppet to undermine Tibetan spiritual traditions, this move could mark China’s most significant diplomatic setbacks in influencing the Tibetan diaspora. How did Nepal pull off this act, and why is it so crucial for China to send Norbu in the first place?

Reports of the controversial Panchen Lama, handpicked by the Communist Party of China to become the so-called spiritual successor of the 14th Dalai Lama living in exile in India, was expected to visit Nepal to attend the ongoing Nanhai Buddhism Roundtable in Lumbini. It’s the birthplace of Lord Buddha—located closer to the Nepal-India border. Because of the sensitivities involved, including that of India, Nepal has reportedly conveyed to the Chinese Embassy that the Panchen Lama would not be welcomed due to “Nepal’s neutrality on religious matters”—reported the Kathmandu Post. 

Norbu was reportedly expected to travel from China’s Chengdu city to Lumbini on a chartered flight, alerting the country’s security establishment. Nepalese agencies, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, and Civil Aviation, and the Lumbini Development Trust, have reportedly disclosed details of the Panchen Lama’s visit to the media. This act highlights China’s enduring effort to promote a Sinicised version of Tibetan Buddhism and supplant the 14th Dalai Lama.

Crucial timing

Beijing’s attempt to send Norbu to Nepal comes in the backdrop of Prime Minister KP Oli’s recently concluded four-day visit to China, where he signed a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Framework Agreement. The latter has been in storage since it was first signed in May 2017 due to its controversial financial modality, which remains a State secret. Although the two sides are reported to have mutually agreed to an “aid financing modality” for BRI projects, the devil lies in the details hidden from the public view. With Nepal wanting 100 per cent aid from China for the BRI projects and China giving no freebies to anyone as high-interest loans enable it to manage greater influence, the future of BRI is uncertain in Nepal.  

However, during this trip, Nepal reiterated, “Xizang [Tibetan] affairs are internal affairs of China and that it will never allow any separatist activities against China on Nepal’s soil.” This was the first time that China referred to Tibet as Xizang, indicating a Communist quest to wipe out Tibet’s socio-cultural, traditional and territorial identity. While Nepal has acknowledged “China as the sole authority in Tibet” since the foundation of bilateral ties in 1955, Kathmandu has largely avoided Beijing’s attempts to export its version of Tibetan Buddhism.

Dalai Lama’s Legacy

Why would China seek to introduce its Panchen Lama in Nepal? Simply to gain external validation for its agenda to reshape Tibetan Buddhism under Chinese influence. By presenting the Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama on an international platform, Beijing aims to legitimise his authority, despite rejection by the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan administration-in-exile. 

This strategy not only seeks to undermine the standing of the Dalai Lama and the traditional Tibetan Buddhist hierarchy but also to tackle global support for the exiled Tibetan community and leadership. Additionally, it serves to tighten control over the Tibetan diaspora, curbing their cultural and spiritual ties to the Dalai Lama’s lineage.

With Tibet at the heart of China’s Nepal policy, Beijing has been trying to break the unity and support for the ‘Free Tibet’ movement among Tibetans in Nepal. Such movements have more than often triggered instability in Tibet, posing a security challenge to the PLA. For example, the seeds of the 2008 Tibetan Uprising in Lhasa found a strong echo in Nepal, where Tibetan refugees stood up against the Chinese brutalities in Tibet. Even the most powerful resistance movements, such as the CIA-backed Khampa Rebellion were planned and executed from the Nepal border with Tibet in the late 1960s. Since then, China has pressured Nepal to curtail the freedom of Tibetan exiles, but international support and human rights organisations have managed to defy this pressure, standing in solidarity with the Tibetan cause. 

Since Nepal became a democracy in 2008, Communist China has tried to build ideological and political ties with the country’s Left forces, including PM Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist). The Left-led governments of Nepal have been pushed by China to go after Tibetan refugees. During the tenure of former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, heavy forces were deployed against Tibetans who were protesting against China. Prachanda had drawn global criticism for his actions. 

Chinese Buddhism in Nepal

Beijing has been pushing to introduce a Chinese version of Buddhism in Nepal, the same way it is reshaping Tibetan identity through State-controlled narratives. In Tibet, this strategy includes so-called “training camps” aimed at instilling “work discipline, Chinese language, and work ethics” among Tibetan youth as part of a broader agenda to undermine their cultural and spiritual heritage. International human rights organisations have raised concerns over these systematic efforts, including the renaming of Tibet as Xizang. By promoting its controversial, State-appointed Panchen Lama in Nepal, Beijing aims to legitimise this version of Buddhism and extend its influence beyond Tibet’s borders.

In any case, China misses no opportunity to take a potshot at the Dalai Lama. In 2017, the Dalai Lama’s alleged statement that Buddha was born in India caused political havoc in Nepal, and Beijing added fuel to the fire. Many nationalist Buddhists in Nepal were reported to have removed the Dalai Lama’s portraits from their houses. 

The controversy subsided with the statement, but China is eagerly waiting for such incidents. And not to forget, Beijing hopes that someday Nepal will sign an Extradition Treaty with China, which could not materialise during President Xi Jinping’s Nepal visit in 2019. If signed, it will jeopardise the future of several thousand Tibetan refugees living in Nepal, especially the ones who arrived after 1990 and still don’t have refugee cards. 

While the government of Nepal may have refused entry to the Panchen Lama this time—potentially influenced by coalition partners like the Nepali Congress—this decision is far from a permanent safeguard. Should leaders like Oli return to power with a strong majority, the likelihood of China exerting its influence to advance its agenda in Nepal would dramatically increase, paving the way for deeper cultural and political incursions. The risk of Nepal becoming a staging ground for Beijing’s Sinicisation efforts remains alarmingly real.

Rishi Gupta is assistant director, Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi. Views are personal.

(Edited by Ratan Priya)