US President Donald Trump sounded like a complete chump when he announced two weeks ago that he hoped to get the US economy “opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”
Well, Easter is just a few days away, but with Covid-19-related infections heading towards the 400,000-mark and deaths towards 12,000, Trump clearly seems like a heartless person, uncaring about the sufferings of his people.
However, while Trump may be wrong about his impractical deadline to revive economic activity in the US by Easter, there cannot be two opinions that a continuing decline in jobs and growth will have a huge impact on health and survival of the weak. The lockdown, prescribed as a prophylactic to reduce the loss of lives, will end up destroying both livelihoods and lives.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing intense pressure from many state chief ministers and his health bureaucracy to extend the lockdown beyond the midnight of 14-15 April. By the time decision time comes, Covid-19 infections will be topping 10,000 in India, and may continue to double in the week after that. The temptation to extend the lockdown will be high. He should resist it.
With the unemployment rate now surging in the wake of the lockdown — the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy estimates unemployment at 23.4 per cent, and 30.9 per cent in urban areas — arguments in favour of extending the lockdown beyond 15 April can be rebutted.
To be sure, there is no case for an abrupt end to the lockdown, and it must be wound down in phases keeping both Covid-19 hotspots and economic needs in balance. 15 April is when the government must consider ways to wind down the lockdown. Modi must reject that idea that the lockdown needs to be extended, except in the worst affected Covid-19 areas.
Also read: India lost more jobs due to coronavirus lockdown than US did during Depression
Here’s why.
First, while the advice of the health establishment cannot be dismissed lightly, the political demands from states for extensions are partly self-serving. Politicians love a pandemic for many reasons, and the main one is that they get to play benevolent uncles to the masses by doling out this freebie or that.
Additionally, a lockdown shifts unprecedented power to the bureaucracy and law enforcement agencies, which makes politicians feel safer on their political perches.
So, while some arguments in favour of extending the lockdown may sound logical, when the idea is being pushed by politicians from all parties, we have to discount their views. Not just Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled states, but even non-BJP ones like Telangana and Chhattisgarh are calling for extension. This itself should raise some red flags.
Second, when businesses go kaput, barring the very well-endowed ones, they take many other businesses down with them, and the jobs they are currently providing may be lost forever.
It is easy to say that the government and banks must provide the necessary funding to keep them afloat. But at a time when many small and medium businesses are anyway reeling under the pre-Covid slowdown, the task of keeping them afloat is getting to be tougher than ever.
When businesses go under for a long period of time, it is kinder to let them sink than keep them on ventilators forever. To rescue viable businesses, the country-wide lockdown period has to be ended on 15 April. Only then will the financial support provided to firms will prove useful.
Also read: What if coronavirus crisis had hit India under Manmohan Singh, not Modi
Third, any extended lockdown means employers will start substituting humans with machines and automation. The longer the lockdown, the faster the replacement of labour with technology solutions. This has been demonstrated repeatedly in the flexible labour markets of the US, where every recession has ended with fewer jobs on board even after the recession ends.
In India, where the organised sector is small relative to the informal sector, job and wage flexibility is more in the latter. This means small and medium businesses — our main job creators — will shed jobs faster to stay afloat. Businessmen are already wary about an extension of the lockdown, and they should be heard first.
The domestic household jobs sector — which employs millions at flexible pay structures — may also shrink. Jobs currently done by maids in homes and car-owners who employ drivers will discover that they can get along with dish-washers, floor-cleaning robots and self-driving.
In any event, if work-from-home gathers steam, who needs chauffeurs? The longer the lockdown, the lower the chances of domestic workers obtaining re-employment at the old wages.
Unfortunately, the subliminal message delivered to all employers, whether in the formal, informal or domestic sectors, is that workers can be a source of infection. They are the reason why offices have to be closed, and maids sent away from gated colonies.
Will this subliminal message not result in everyone reducing employment if and when they can? Covid is converting a useful worker into a source of personal and organisational risk.
Fourth, labour attitudes to work also change when unemployment becomes structural. It is a well-accepted reality that when a worker is without a job for a long period of time, he stops looking for work. This is why in the immediate aftermath of demonetisation, when people stopped looking for jobs, the unemployment rate actually fell, according to the CMIE unemployment report of January-April 2017.
A prolonged Covid lockdown will make our structural unemployment worse than ever. Pressure on the state to keep giving incomes without delivering jobs will increase. Social unrest will become endemic after the pandemic.
Also read: Why Indian banks could make the Covid-19 economic crisis only worse
Fifth, even the health arguments weaken on closer examination. Efforts to ‘flatten the curve’ of infections sound logical in the early stages of the pandemic, but here’s the reality check: there is always a chance of a second wave of infections.
Singapore is having a second lockdown as local infections rise. In Japan, a state of emergency is being declared to avoid another debilitating lockdown. Since vaccines and cures are at least a year-and-a-half away, the best way to keep infections down for such a long period of time may not be lockdowns.
Modi must think hard before listening to political advice on extending the lockdown in the name of saving people from death. There are some cures worse than the disease, and that disease is called destroying livelihoods to protect lives. Without livelihoods, life itself matters less.
Just as the right antidote to sickness is a healthy body, the right antidote to Covid-19 in the medium term is a healthy economy.
Jagannathan is Editorial Director, Swarajya. Views are personal.
The article was first published on Swarajya website.
Not only should the lock-down be lifted, so should social distancing orders, which are pointless, as the virus can survive elsewhere, not just in saliva or breath. India has a relatively YOUNG population and low levels of infection. Covid19 is fatal mostly to older people with co-morbidities. There is no crisis here, except the one we are manufacturing with our reckless and dangerous remedies.
If the true rate of infection, rather than just confirmed cases, were known .and if the death figures were not being manipulated and were accurate, we would probably find a mortality rate closer to the seasonal flu than to something like Ebola.
As it stands, a recent study out of Germany puts the mortality rate at 0.3 or thereabouts, which is only slightly worse than the seasonal flu. The flu, by the way, has killed many more tens of thousands of people so far, without equivalent catastrophizing.
Government never lets a good crisis to to waste. It uses it to grab more money and power from people. Which bureaucrat or politician would turn down boat-loads of central government money and the opportunity for grandstanding and political patronage?
Bah humbug to the self-styled experts too.
W.H.O is funded preponderantly by Bill Gates, whose philanthropy is adulterated with poisonous self-interest and whose polio vaccine campaigns in India and elsewhere have left huge numbers of children dead from a mysterious ailment resembling nothing more than polio. Mandatory shots laced with sterility drugs is the agenda of the vaccine mafia. Gates has spoken approvingly of reducing the population and is affiliated with Planned Parenthood, with its racist and eugenicist history.
Let us be wise and follow Sweden, which is allowing its citizens to develop herd immunity by carrying on with life as usual, with some precautions for the elderly and immune-compromised.
A robust economy gives robust livelihoods that allow people to get the nutrition, exercise, and sleep necessary for developing strong immune systems. Vitamins A, C, and D consumed as supplements as well as in the diet; plenty of water, sleep, social support (not isolation);,megadoses of intravenous Vitamin C, Zinc, and hydroxychloroquine (or a nutraceutical equivalent) for those who fall sick; and careful hand-washing, cleaning, and general hygiene:- these are the answers to Covid-19, not economic self-immolation.
A penniless man cannot eat except as the recipient of charity…and who will give the charity if everyone becomes penniless? Remember, government can milk the private sector only so long as that cow is alive and healthy.
Ask yourself – who would profit from the economic destruction of India and the replacement of millions of small businesses and casual workers with online firms and robots? The answer is – fintech, social media, big data, the spy agencies, all of which are controlled by the global banking elites and their allies in every country.
Indians – do not be fooled. Go back to work and turn of the mainstream media.
@PRINT I am pretty sure that my last comment will be moderated out and it should be for the language used and the personal attack on the author. I still wrote it to make a POINT to YOU.
This article is a great example of how to shift the overton window by putting extreme views – one does NOT expect the PRINT to engage like this, it invalidates your established positions.
Thanks
A fundamental value of ethical behavior is non-suffering, or well being of others. So YOU, Mr. Let-Some-Die, YOU FIRST (or offer a dear loved one to die FIRST) , before you advocate anyone else to die for no justifiable reason.
This epidemic is not a hypothesis of the thought experiment, You JackA*S, that you undertook in the warm afterglow of that scotch you were sipping the other evening.
People like this author just make me feel sick to stomach. Where are the pitchforks and torches when you need them …
Brilliant article. Very well analysed. Greater urbanisation has necessitated the need to keep economic activity always running. Else you’ll have an unmanageable situation at hand.
I’m seeing at close quarters how bureaucracy doesn’t want to let go of its unbridled powers they are enjoying currently. If Modi is a true leader, he must see through this. I’d like to call this “the great Corona Scam”.
If one starts a counter on any one illness or phenomenon and gives it so much social media presence and govt support, it will appear to be a disaster. That’s what has happened with Corona.
Let India start a counter on births , the drain it causes on resources and then see what panic it creates!
Yes Ms Dolly Corona Scam which China has started and no one has the guts to shout on china.
The article is not well thought of. Even in this flood of confusing flow of information, one thing is crystal clear. Social distancing is the only method to stop it’s spread. It’s also equally clear that in a country like India you can’t enforce it with best of your efforts. Obviously lifting of lockdown means more deaths. The proponents of lifting lockdown tacitly accept that, but avoid explicit confession that they are ready for killing people for the sake of “so called economy”
The worst thing which can happen with lockdown is that a middle class man will become poor but at least he will survive. I don’t think anybody would choose to die.
As regards poor, India is in a position that we can sustain them by feeding through our public distribution system. At least nobody would die of hunger if as a society we are determined to ensure that.
Come what may, we must not let go of the principal that “each life is precious”
Agreed with your views Mr Prakash.
Lockdown should be lifted in places where their are no cases. Am from Nagaland. Currently we have Zero Cases. Lockdown is not the solution. The best solution will be to stop people from entering Nagaland, and Nagaland people shouldn’t be allowed to go out as well. This will be much better.
Lockdown is the step 1
Hotspot Isolation is Step 2
I support the writer’s veiw…
Lockdown is not the solution…
Economy and pandemic have to be kept in two different bowls before mixing. The writer is very persistent and biased in approach. Only seeing the one side of the coin. Lock down is the only solution at the moment to curb the pandemic when india is not sound in medical facilities. Developed countries Germany, Singapore, Australia all are using lockdown and worlmfrok home as the plausible solution for the situation currently even when they are not crowded as jndia
What happened to Spain and Italy are seen by world they adopted lock down later.
Now post the lock down a strategy to release it in phases manner is to be looked into.
Economy can be revived by various measures but you need to understand financial crisis and life threatening crisis.
What is? Please tell.
I m Doctor (intensivist ) , world have only one option
Specially india LOCKDOWN & Social distancing , otherwise …………
Economy can be revived but not life ,
The Authors think that Lock down would give extra Power to Police & Politicians which shows his leftist views. This is sheer madness to think. Look at The Print or other Social medias,there will be 2-3 articles every day advising Govt what to do & not to do & they deadly contradict each other. I have no idea why they become Specialist of Economics. Why the Authors who have Journalism as their Speciality turn as world renowned Economist. ? Beside Journalist, former RBI Governor Rajan,Former FM PC also gives unpractical, unsolicited free advices. Mr Jagannath says, PM should not be under Pressure from CM of various States who are advocating continuation of Lock down. PM will take advice from all State CMs,views of Opposition party Leads,his advisory Committee & Council of Ministers & take appropriate decision. He need not implement falthoo idiotic advice of Mr jagannathan ..
I won’t hesitate in saying the writer seems like a total ignorant retard.
?
Jann hai to jahan hai……. Think. About it, check. Usa on ground situation… People shouting shameless trump……..
“Chump” means a foolish or easily deceived person. US President Trump did not win a lottery to become the most powerful man in the world nor did he make the virus but he is giving his people, everyone cash due to lock down, not cooked food. What would you prefer… Govt cooked food or cash? Govt can give cash to everyone just the way they make everyone vote.. How many people will our govt. give cooked food and how many times? Before the lock down, the govt., like other western countries, should have taxed the people with income to give cash to the poor. Western Countries can do the lock down better because they always did that. Now, the majority of Indians who live hand to mouth, have already been pushed off the border and are not in at all good shape. Lock down is required and the whole Country needs to work as a team as every bodies contribution counts. And in a team, playing conditions and gear must be the same for all. Right now, rich people want the lock down because they have enough and more which they will not share while also they want the poor to stay at home and suffer without cash. The govt. should enforce lock down for as long as required after the equal distribution of cash to all the needy citizens. The sad part is that the rich do not really think of the poor and they pretend like they dont really have an insight.
Most important thing is to be alive first.
Lockdown must be extended irrespective of any economic regression or unemployment…
I full support extension of lockdown.
I also strongly propose the strictest of strict action plan for the Jamati chaps who are solely responsible for the present situation in India.