Emmanuel Macron has pulled off the unbelievable with an audacity that would have cost anyone else dearly in his place. Remarkable political acumen has enabled him to emerge as the only bankable force in France even after losing electoral support in the recently concluded snap elections.
He has cleverly stopped both the far Right and the far Left from taking political leadership, using the political inertia to further his leadership of the country during the Olympic Games 2024 – with an unprecedented element of Indian support.
The soft power element of the French nation is on glorious display as the country is set for the grand opening of the Olympic Games today, 26 July 2024.
This massive boost to Paris’ soft power comes at a time when its influence in the French overseas territories in the Indo-Pacific has lately declined. Despite the melancholia that has descended the continent due to demands for security modernisation and the defence industry ramp-up, the palpable excitement among Parisians is unmissable. Equally unmissable are the thousands of security personnel guarding the games.
The Indian connection
The India-France bonhomie has been on fine display, with an Indian element shouldering security arrangements.
India’s celebrated dog squad, the K-9, has debuted internationally at the Paris Olympics. It is noted for its contribution toward carrying out security manoeuvres at the G-20 and the 2024 Republic Day celebrations. These elite dog squads are accompanied by personnel and handlers from different Central Armed Forces such as the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), National Security Guard (NSG), and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), to name a few.
Paris has been on high alert after the recent terror attacks in Moscow where ISIS-K killed about 140 people. France has also been a victim of terror attacks – in 2015 in Paris and in 2016 in Nice. To secure the Olympic games this year, the country decided to deploy an overwhelming number of police officers, private security personnel and soldiers.
India’s K–9 squad will be deploying its prowess and working alongside at least 45,000 police officers and 20,000 private security personnel to especially guard the grand opening ceremony on the Seine River. Paris has decided against the standard practice of holding the opening ceremony at a stadium, choosing instead the River Seine with the picturesque backdrop of the Eiffel Tower.
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Ban on Russia
As the Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of abating, the European solidarity with Ukraine is very much on display in the games. Following the Russian invasion in 2022, the International Olympic Committee decided to levy a technical ban on Russia and Belarus at the Paris Olympics. Fifteen Russian and 18 Belarusian athletes, who have been vetted to ensure no connection with the Russian military, will be competing in the games.
However, they will not be competing as official entries from Moscow or Minsk but under the category of ‘Individual Neutral Athletes’. Under this classification, Russian and Belarusian flags, national anthems and uniforms will be absent from the games and its proceedings. Additionally, Russia is excluded from all kinds of team events in about 30 sports.
In contrast to an ousted Russia, Ukraine is participating in the Paris Olympics with a 140-member team, one of the smallest contingents to have participated in any Olympic games after the country’s independence in 1991.
The Paris Olympics have also been getting a lot of eyeballs for having a remarkably lean budget. In comparison to the previously held Olympics, the 2024 Paris Olympics have been financed with a budget of just about $10 billion, the leanest to date, gaining rightful applause.
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Unsettled question of French political leadership
The question of leadership remains unsettled in France. It is a Centrist caretaker government that is overseeing these preparations for the Olympics. Once the games are over, the process of choosing the Prime Minister will restart from where it was left.
So far, Macron has gotten away with audacious decisions that most political experts predicted would fail.
He has acknowledged the French people’s choice evidenced by the European elections where the far Right got double the vote Macron could. He called for a snap election when he didn’t have to. Back then it seemed more like a tantrum that would shoot Macron in his foot as the popularity of the far Right was surging and his own was dipping. The results of the first round confirmed that shortly.
Defying all political advice, he simply disappeared from the public eye, into the folds of the quaint Elysee palace. There, he masterminded another plan for stopping the far Right from winning the election despite the front’s popularity.
Just as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally camp was going berserk with its astounding performance in the first round of snap elections, he made it possible for 224 candidates to withdraw. This would allow the anti-far Right vote to consolidate to the desired effect. When the results of the second round were announced, Macron stood vindicated.
Suddenly, the French parliamentary election results swung from the far Right to the far Left as the latter coalition, the New Popular Front, finished first.
But that’s not all.
Just as the far Left camp started to celebrate this rather unbelievable luck at the polls, fantasising about a new far Left PM for France, Macron pulled away that opportunity from their hands.
Where exactly is French politics going with this political ménage à trois of Macron, the far Right and the far Left?
Once the Olympic games conclude, Macron will be faced with two situations—to enter a cohabitation with the Left alliance (consisting of two far Right and two moderate Left parties) or, build a coalition to avoid cohabitation.
Remember that unlike two weeks ago, when a co-habitation looked impossible to forego, Macron yet again is poised to manage a coalition instead and rule France in his signature style of intelligence, audacity and charm.
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A ‘short-term’ genius
Days before the Paris Olympics, Macron’s Renaissance party formed a last-minute agreement with several Centre-Right MPs and won a key vote in the Parliament. This tactical victory has enabled the French president, usually tasked with the country’s foreign policy, security and defence, to play a more tangible role in forming the next government.
This has not only consolidated his hold on the domestic part of French politics but has also delivered the final checkmate to the far Right and the far Left at the same time.
The far Left is left with their moment of reckoning to realise how they never had a plan or a leader in the first place.
On the other hand, Jordan Bardella, the far Right camp’s poster boy, is frustrated by his thwarted chances of becoming the PM. Thus, he has assumed leadership of the new far Right front put together by Hungarian PM Viktor Orban. The convergence between the French far Right and Orban, which was fractured until now on the question of Ukraine and European security, has been blurred by Bardella’s latest outing. In the short term, this will cost the far Right their support in France where public opinion is still overwhelmingly in support of Ukraine.
But it also signals how the Opposition is not looking at the short term anymore.
Unable to defeat the political genius of Emmanuel Macron – at a time when his approval ratings and popularity were at their lowest – they would rather make a comeback when his political career ends in 2027.
Precisely for the same reasons, Macron’s calculus is to hold on to power until 2027, after which his political career will end anyway. What he has done until then is to make sure that his role as a president is not overshadowed by a PM from another political ideology.
In the long run, however, it could raise genuine questions about his legacy. His successor Gabriel Attal couldn’t play a visible enough role in his capacity as PM. Attal’s popularity is not even close to that of Bardella, the successor of Le Pen.
However, a stable Macron at the helm of French politics is good news for Europe and its partners the world over, especially New Delhi. The continuity will further enable speedier achievement of strategic goals and perhaps also play a more visible role in lessening geopolitical uncertainty.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)