There is a new ‘captain’ in Kerala. After the Congress-led United Democratic Front wrested the Nilambur seat from the Left Democratic Front, the state media lavished praise on Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan for helming a crucial electoral win.
On 23 June, the day of the Nilambur bypoll verdict, Satheesan watched the proceedings from the District Congress Committee (DCC) office in Ernakulam. As soon as the UDF ensured its victory, Congress leaders vied among themselves to shower praises on the LoP, led by MP Hibi Eden. It was a mark of appreciation for Satheesan, who didn’t bow down to former Nilambur MLA PV Anvar’s diktats and ensured a win despite the latter re-entering the fray.
It was PV Anvar’s resignation that facilitated the by-election in the first place, even if he sought to extract his pound of flesh for extending his support to the UDF. Leaders within the Congress – such as Ramesh Chennithala and ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) – advocated Anvar’s accommodation, with the by-poll becoming a bellwether ahead of the 2026 assembly election.
Nevertheless, Satheesan stood his ground and took ownership of the decision to keep Anvar out. It was a marked departure from the consensual ways that have defined the Congress in recent times. The consensual approach was necessitated on account of the party’s weakening organisational apparatus, leaving it at the mercy of various stakeholders and its supporters frustrated.
The UDF’s morale-boosting win and the credit to Satheesan prompted former LoP Ramesh Chennithala to come out publicly, stating how nobody hailed him as ‘captain’ when he led the UDF to bypoll victories in the past.
Power struggles in the Congress aside, the UDF seems to be taking the wrong lessons from the bypoll by extrapolating it to 2026. On the contrary, the ruling Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) is leveraging even the loss to build its narrative for the upcoming assembly election.
Left gambit for 2026
The Left’s route to a solitary seat in successive Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and 2024 was marked by a shift in its Hindu vote base to the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). The Left has traditionally been the ‘Hindu party’ in Kerala, whereas the UDF has been anchored by minority communities.
Unlike the 2019 elections—held in the wake of the BJP-fuelled Sabarimala agitation—the 2024 loss made the switching of Hindu voters a perpetual phenomenon. If the CPI-M initially concentrated on carving out sections of UDF’s minority votes to counter the loss of its Hindu base, the 2024 loss demonstrated the urgency to hold on to its Ezhava vote bank.
This prompted the Left to double down on its strategy of portraying the UDF as a front backed by communal elements such as Jamaat-e-Islami. CPI-M deployed the same tactic in last year’s Palakkad and Wayanad bypolls—alleging that the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and Jamaat were responsible for UDF’s victory.
After the setback in Nilambur, CPI-M state secretary MV Govindan resorted to the same game plan, almost like a reflex action. The potency of this strategy has swelled on account of the polarisation between the Muslim and Christian communities in Kerala lately. The CPI-M, perhaps, believes that it can attract additional Christian votes in the bargain, along with achieving its primary goal of preventing the further erosion of its Hindu vote base.
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UDF’s Muslim consolidation
After the Nilambur bypoll, a chuffed UDF is counting on Muslim consolidation to ensure its win in 2026. Brushing aside criticism on courting the Jamaat-e-Islami, the Congress is unwittingly aiding the Left propaganda to paint the UDF as a formation backed by an Islamist fringe.
Such a portrayal can only negatively affect the prospects of the UDF in central and south Kerala—leading to massive counter-polarisation. In any case, unlike in Lok Sabha polls, Kerala Muslims do not vote en bloc for any coalition in an assembly election. The BJP has also become stronger today, leading to a split in anti-incumbency votes.
What the UDF needs to do is to find the communal balance it was known to uphold historically, rather than putting all its eggs in one basket. The Congress should also figure out why the ‘Muslim front’ label continues to stick to the UDF—allowing the Left and the BJP to harness it successfully.
Even in 2021, the LDF had floated the narrative of the tail wagging the dog; of the IUML driving the UDF’s agenda. This was after IUML’s PK Kunhalikutty chose to contest the assembly poll despite being a sitting Lok Sabha MP, eyeing the post of deputy chief minister.
This narrative affected the UDF’s prospects badly, with the Church-backed Kerala Congress (Mani) switching to the Left on the eve of that election and upsetting a delicate communal balance.
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Ebrahim Kunju’s speech
On closer analysis, it can be evaluated that the communal balance that anchored the UDF was lost further back; to be precise, in 2012. It started with the IUML’s ill-thought-out strategy to leverage its numbers and the UDF’s wafer-thin majority in order to demand a fifth Cabinet berth after the 2011 assembly election.
Aryadan Muhammed, then a minister in Oommen Chandy’s council of ministers, had publicly forewarned the Congress of the ramifications of being browbeaten into it. Chandy ill-advisedly acceded to IUML’s demand to keep it in good humour.
The move created a furore within the Congress. And it got worse when a sound bite of IUML minister VK Ebrahim Kunju played on TV news bulletins six months later. On 6 October 2012, at a party convention in Palakkad, Ebrahim Kunju had stated: “There is a narrative that the IUML is ruling Kerala, that the party is controlling the UDF, and that is a fact”. And that opened a Pandora’s box.
Vellappally Natesan and Sukumaran Nair—general secretaries of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam and Nair Service Society (NSS), respectively—came out publicly against it, calling for Hindu unity and accusing the Chandy government of being a pro-minority dispensation.
Nair also contributed to the famous ‘Ku-Ku-Ku’ analogy of the state being ruled by three Ks: Kunjoonju (Chandy), Kunjumani (KM Mani), and Kunhalikkutty. This was chorused by Natesan and later invoked by the Left ahead of the election to portray the UDF as a ‘minority front’.
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Jamaat dalliance will backfire
With the deaths of Oommen Chandy and KM Mani, and the latter’s party joining the LDF subsequently, the ‘minority front’ label in 2016 came to be replaced with ‘Muslim front’ in 2021.
Congress has been undertaking efforts to rid the UDF of this charge, recently appointing Sunny Joseph as the party’s state chief, and foregrounding Nair faces as chief ministerial candidates. However, by taking Jamaat-e-Islami’s support in Nilambur, the UDF has set itself back in this endeavour irredeemably.
The UDF may have managed to override the charge of Jamaat dalliance in Nilambur—by invoking the Abdul Nasar Madany-led People Democratic Party (PDP)’s support to the CPI-M, and the Jamaat’s history of backing the Left for three decades. However, this strategy cannot be replicated in the forthcoming local body polls or the assembly election for several reasons.
First, the Left will keep chipping away at the Congress for being soft on the Islamist fringe, deploying the likes of Vellappally Natesan and Kanthapuram AP Aboobacker Musliyar to attack the UDF from both flanks. The CPI-M’s brilliance at setting narratives and getting the party machinery and the Left ecosystem to relay it to the grassroots cannot be matched by the Congress.
Second, unlike the AP Sunnis led by Musliyar, who back the Left for organisational growth and material benefits, the Jamaat-e-Islami’s support for the UDF is solely to further its nefarious agendas.
Third, regardless of the Jamaat’s history of backing the Left, Malayalis today judge it through the prism of MediaOne—the news channel promoted by Jamaat—and Out of Focus, its editorial show with a phenomenal reach.
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Jamaat’s nefarious agendas
Out of Focus doesn’t just engage in propaganda for Islamist insurgency movements across the world; the show even takes up cudgels on behalf of SDPI or cleric-politician Abdul Nasar Ma’dani in Kerala. A Jamaat member told me on condition of anonymity that “This isn’t surprising. It is a Maududian (referring to Jamaat-e-Islami founder Syed Abul A’la Maududi) concept.”
Essentially, what Out of Focus has set out to accomplish is to make liberal Kerala Muslims militant in character, in line with the Jamaat’s core principles. The show has the potential to drive a wedge among Kerala’s different communities. And there is every chance that a moderate Muslim watching it regularly would end up becoming a hardliner without even registering it.
Ironically, the Jamaat seems to be using the IUML—which it has routinely targeted for its moderate positions—as a vehicle to drive its hardline agendas. While the IUML is desperate to return to power, Congress will be left to answer for the pronouncements of the three wise men on Out of Focus. This is something that Congress hasn’t accounted for yet.
Regardless of VD Satheesan’s courage to not give in to PV Anvar’s shenanigans, his decision to take Jamaat-e-Islami’s support will define UDF’s prospects in 2026.
Anand Kochukudy is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)