What’s up with the Census? It should have come out in 2021, but it has been delayed 10 times in the last four years.
The most recent public development in the matter took place on 15 October when the government officer charged with overseeing the Census—the Registrar General of India, Mritunjay Kumar Narayan, who is also the Census Commissioner—got an extension of service from 6 December 2024 until 4 August 2026.
The last update—not from the government but from the news agency Reuters— was that the one-in-a-decade exercise that records the size of India’s population and dozens of other data that are key to good governance, was to start this September. It would take all of 16 months and be ready by March 2026. But it is already October and there is no word on the Census three years after it should have been done and dusted.
What we have instead is politicians and others raising alarm over an “imbalance in population growth” and “growing threat of demographic disorder”. Both seem to be attempts to push a particular narrative for political purposes. If they are really worried about the way the population of India is growing, why don’t they just ask the government—where is the Census?
On Tuesday, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar pressed the panic button about “demographic disorder” in the country. The consequences of which, he said, would be “no less than a nuclear bomb”. Speaking to chartered accountants at an event in Jaipur, he said, “It is alarming to see how some areas have been affected by this strategic (demographic) shift, turning them into impenetrable strongholds where democracy loses its essence.”
Now, sitting here in Kolkata, where Dhankhar occupied the Raj Bhavan not very long ago, I thought the former governor of West Bengal had suddenly chosen to voice a concern that sounds like the BJP’s oft-repeated complaint about Mamata Banerjee’s appeasement politics and her blind eye towards incoming ‘infiltrators’. But friends in Delhi say I was only half-right, the most immediate trigger for his remarks, allegedly, was the upcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand.
Dhankhar may well have taken his cue from recent comments by Prime Minister Narendra Modi or RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat. Speaking at a rally in Jamshedpur in mid-September, Modi drew out the electoral battlelines for Jharkhand saying, “Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltrators have become a major threat to Santhal Parganas and Kolhan regions. The demography of these regions is changing fast. The tribal population is on the decline. The infiltrators are taking over positions in Panchayats, grabbing land, indulging in atrocities on daughters of the state. Every Jharkhand resident is feeling unsafe.”
And just days ago, in his Vijayadashami speech at Nagpur, Bhagwat said, “…. the illegal infiltration from Bangladesh into Bharat and the population imbalance caused by it has become a matter of serious concern even among the common people.” Referring to the “violent coup” in Bangladesh, he also spoke of the plight of the Hindus there and the need for Hindus to unite. “The Hindu community across the world should learn the lesson that being unorganised and weak is like inviting atrocities by the wicked,” he said, adding, “There is a famous saying that even God does not care about the weak.”
But not a word about the Census anywhere, by anyone. Journalists in Delhi have told me Amit Shah has told a group of senior reporters that the Census operations will begin soon. But soon could mean from now to kingdom come.
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A lack of political will
There have been several stumbling blocks getting in the way of the Census. Initially, and understandably, it was the pandemic that began in 2020. But then other issues cropped up including the demand for a caste census to determine the population of different caste groups in the country. The fate of the controversial National Population Register (NPR) to identify “doubtful voters” and “foreigners” or “aliens” is also uncertain.
Add to all of that the exercise to redraw the map of constituencies across the country—delimitation. It reportedly began in some states at the end of 2022 and is scheduled to be launched across the country once the Census is ready in 2026. This exercise is expected to increase the number of Parliamentary constituencies from 543 to 753, a giant leap. The number of seats was last increased in 1973—from 522 to 543.
Linked to both these exercises—census and delimitation—is the implementation of women’s reservation, which guarantees women 33 per cent of seats in Parliament and other elected bodies.
The delayed Census is also impacting the poor. The government is working with 2011 data, which estimates the population at 121 crore. Today, that number has gone up to 142 crore, yet budgetary allocations and beneficiaries listed for welfare programmes are made on the basis of data that is almost 15 years old. Net result: as many as 100 million people are estimated, according to studies by economists John Dreze and others, to have been excluded from the Public Distribution System that gives food grains to the poorest.
Instead of voicing their concern over these key issues, three top public figures have focussed, in the last few weeks, on “democratic disorder”, imbalanced population growth and migrants who have not officially been identified as illegal. Their objective: Short-term electoral gains, most likely, at the cost of the lives and livelihoods of Indians who have not even had the opportunity to be counted.
What it demonstrates is a lack of political will to get the Census done or perhaps an attempt to use the Census for political gain. Either way, it’s a tragic hiatus in India’s record of conducting the Census without fail for 130 years through tumultuous times, including the fight for freedom from the colonial yoke.
Monideepa Banerjie is a senior journalist based in Kolkata. She tweets @Monideepa62. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
True. Census is the only solution.
But even without the Census, one can easily observe the demographic shift in West Bengal. Scores of Hindu-majority villages have a Muslim majority now. All thanks to the TMC’s blessings to illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. These illegal immigrants form the core voter base of the TMC.
Secular journalists like Ms. Monideepa Banerjie will never acknowledge this. Irrespective of the outcome of the Census.