For many Iranians, the night of 20 May resembled ‘Yalda’, the longest night of the year in the Persian calendar. Staring at the screens of TVs and smartphones in the hope of any relieving news, they were saying prayers for the well-being of the Iranian President, Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, and his high-ranking companions, including the foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Returning from the inauguration of a joint Iran-Azerbaijan project, their helicopter reportedly crashed on the afternoon of 19 May, around the city of Varzaqan, East Azerbaijan province. The impassibility of the mountains and the extreme fog made the rescue operation very sluggish. People across the country stayed up until the early morning of 20 May, when the unbelievable news finally appeared on the screens: The president and his companions had died.
Although it has not happened for decades, the Iranians are not unfamiliar with the loss of their leaders. On 30 August 1981, the second president of the newly founded Islamic Republic of Iran and his prime minister were killed in a bomb explosion at their office. Just two months earlier, then chief of Iran’s Supreme Court and 72 members of the elite Islamic Republic Party had been killed by a bomb at the party’s headquarters. Even though their loss certainly posed difficulties for the new republic, which was also fighting an all-out war against the Baath Party of Iraq, Iran did not fall into chaos and instability. The new administration was inaugurated about one month later.
The secret behind the endurance of the Islamic Republic and its relative political stability, despite several anticipations of its near collapse following various crises, is the national consensus on the institutions established by the Constitution. The Supreme Leader is constitutionally responsible for “solving governance problems that cannot be solved by normal means”, however, even after Imam Khomeini, the founder and the first Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic died on 4 June 1989, the Assembly of Experts, which according to the Constitution had to elect the new Supreme Leader, gathered immediately and fulfilled its duty the day after. No chaos or unrest ensued. In the case of the loss of a president, the Constitution is just as clear: The first vice-president should preside over the executive branch until the people elect the new president in no more than 50 days. Following its provisions, the early presidential election is now scheduled for 28 June.
Also read: Iran’s response to Israel’s attack is a turning point in history. Will Netanyahu fold?
Policy continuation
It is too soon to meaningfully speculate about the potential candidates of the upcoming presidential election as the country is still mourning the sudden loss of its late president. But a few names are circulating in the political sphere. Saeed Jalili, the representative of the Supreme Leader in the National Security Council and a presidential candidate in the last election is one of them. He is believed to be ideologically closest to the Raisi administration. Ali Larijani, another possible candidate, was the former spokesperson of the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) and is closer to the centre of the political spectrum. Naturally, the candidacy of Mohammad Mokhber, the first vice-president of the late President Raisi, who is currently in charge of the executive branch until the election, is another reasonable possibility. The former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, and the current minister of Roads and Urban Development, Mehrdad Bazrpash are also among the potential candidates, though relatively less likely than others.
Unlike parliamentary democracies, the Iranian president assumes the full responsibility of the executive branch. So, should any of them become the next president he would pursue his preferred policies, which may, more or less, differ from that of Raisi’s. Nevertheless, given the enhanced popularity of the late president due to his tragic death, the next president is expected to follow in his footsteps, at least rhetorically. President Raisi was known for modesty, hard work, morality, and avoiding partisan fights, the characteristics that the Iranians will likely seek in their next president.
These characteristics were seemingly shared with other officials who accompanied the president on his last trip. Among them was foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. He too was known as a moral politician and diplomat who tirelessly advocated the Axis of Resistance and the Palestinian cause, especially during the ongoing Gaza catastrophe. Being an expert in West Asian issues, he made numerous trips to countries in the region hoping to temper the tensions. Given the turmoil in West Asia, his loss might be irreparable. However, no other foreign minister or even president would alter the country’s constant position toward the Palestinian cause.
The negotiations between Iran and the US, which recently commenced in Oman and are being supervised by the Supreme Leader, will likely continue under the next administration. Generally speaking, as the Iranian foreign policy is not entirely attributable to the executive branch, there would be some strong elements of continuity in the next administration, although the probable changes should not be underestimated.
Of course, there are people inside and outside of Iran who do not feel sorry for President Raisi’s death. Some of them unfortunately take advantage of this tragic situation to pursue their own political goals. Officials of Israel, the regional archenemy of Iran, are certainly among them.
The Iranian terrorist organisation Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), which is currently hosted by a foreign country, is another example. At home, the opposition to the Islamic Republic, as well as those who did not vote for President Raisi, may not sympathise with the majority of Iranians who mourn for their late president. Some of the former have had the courtesy not to publicly hurt the feelings of his supporters. Even some major reformist figures, who had been harsh critics of him, correctly understood the situation as a national and apolitical one and issued messages of condolences.
As we observed in the aftermath of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani’s assassination and other similar occasions, these moments of national grief can effectively heal social and political wounds as long as they are not spoiled by some unwise political moves. This time is no exception. As the Iranians hold mourning ceremonies for the late President Raisi and his companions in several cities of Iran, there is hope that the pervasive national unity will be his blessed legacy.
Shayan Afrasiabi is a Senior Researcher at Governance and Policy Think Tank, Iran. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)
I feel sorry for Print team that this article had to be written by a sympathizer who repeatedly has to mention that the whole of Iran is mourning . Where as the fact that the same president was the one who brutally suppressed the uprising against forced cultural policing , which caused huge number of deaths and is actually reviled by huge number Iranians is not even mentioned. Falling standards of a brand I used to follow for impartial reporting.