The job market is not super-hot. But post the Budget, the sentiment for hiring is in the 70-plus category, up from the below-40 mark post-demonetisation.
The evening before the presentation of the Union Budget, I was returning from a seminar when I noticed an advertisement for drivers by a well-known logistics company. The pizza shop down the road wanted sales people, even part time. So did the supermarket next door.
I thought to myself, India truly is a land of contradictions. On one hand, there are plenty of job openings. On the other, there are people sitting unemployed.
I am considered an expert on the job market. And a question I often get asked is: “How’s the market?”
So here are some jobs where the supply is much less than the demand: big data, analytics, designers, social media experts, digital marketing people, truck drivers, bus drivers, carpenters, plumbers, cooks, maid servants, nurses, school teachers, college professors, physiotherapists etc.
Post the Union Budget, I can say the sentiment for hiring is in the 70-plus category. For reference, the sentiment after demonetisation was below 40. So the market is not super-hot.
However, it’s still up from almost the entirety of 2017 (up to October), when the job market was in a slumber. Most permanent recruitment firms posted lower sales figures compared to the previous year. Based upon my discussions with the recruitment industry CEOs, the overall industry fell by 30 to 35 per cent vis-à-vis the previous period.
Post-October 2017, though, the situation has changed dramatically. The reasons?
– The negative impact of GST implementation has worn off. Many sectors, in fact, are happy with GST now.
– Demonetisation effect has dissipated.
– Due to a good monsoon, demand has picked up in rural India, as witnessed by the jump in sales figures of FMCG giants like Colgate, Hindustan Unilever, etc.
– The auto industry is growing well compared to previous years.
– The airline business is growing at 20 per cent year-on-year for the last three years.
– The e-commerce industry has resumed hiring.
– The logistics and supply chain sector has also started hiring, due to the positive impact of GST.
Sectors on the up
The government’s focus on improving infrastructure, especially roads, means that the road building machine industry is flooded with orders. One of my clients told me that his order book for August-September 2017 equalled the entirety of 2016!
Then, at a seminar conducted by the Karnataka MSME industry association, I spoke to several entrepreneurs one-on-one, about their companies and the state of the economy as a whole, and to my surprise, all of them were bullish. They came from different sectors – automotive components, solar, defence etc., and the main issue they faced was timely order execution, but still made positive noises.
In our own company, in the October-December quarter alone, the value of mandates we picked up (all with retainer fees) was three times more than the previous quarter – something that’s continuing in the new quarter too. As a result, we went to the campuses and hired six MBAs against zero last year.
Government strategy
I see the Union Budget 2018-19 as one that will lead to demand generation from rural India, which in turn means more jobs. The government is fully aware that to return to power in 2019, it has to win rural India. As a matter of fact, in Narendra Modi’s first 10 years as CM, Gujarat grew based on agriculture.
Take other big election winners like Mamata Banerjee or Naveen Patnaik – their focus on the rural sector is bringing them great reward. In rural West Bengal, for example, roads are well-laid, electricity is aplenty, water is 24×7… that’s why Mamata di keeps winning elections.
Modi understands the pulse of India. The latest Budget is made for ‘Bharat’. If ‘Bharat’ does well, India will flourish too.
The PM’s emphasis on Digital India, connectivity etc will all lead to jobs in the Indian IT sector. Today, out of the $136 billion turnover of the sector, domestic business only accounts for $20 billion. But this will grow at double the rate of the export business; I expect it to quickly get to 40 per cent of the overall IT sector. That will lead to a huge number of jobs in the IT/ITES/BPO sector.
So, “how’s the job market?” Things are looking up.
Kris Lakshmikanth is founder-chairman and managing director of The Head Hunters India Private Limited and a commentator on employment matters.
Excellent article about outlook