A remarkable week of India’s diplomatic firsts it has been.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Ukraine, the first ever by an Indian PM after the country’s independence in 1991, will be remembered as one of the biggest diplomatic feats of his tenure. It was unheard of for an Indian PM to undertake a 10-hour-long train journey, along with a high-powered delegation, to visit a war zone.
What did it take for Modi to embark upon this historic journey to Kyiv? While the joint statement released at the end of the visit with four symbolic agreements is promising indeed, it’s just the tip of the iceberg.
The pursuit of standalone ties
This diplomatic overture has a larger implication, purpose and innovative signalling, which may be summarised in five key verticals.
First, it is about foreign policy de-hyphenation. India always had genuine interests to pursue Ukraine despite enduring ties with Russia. But the same balance was not reflected either in our analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war or Kyiv’s do-or-die approach toward protecting its territorial sovereignty. For most of the 900-day war, Indian strategic analysis wore a lens of India-Russia bilateral ties.
In hindsight, it is easy to understand why. It has to do with the special historicity of India-Russia relations. As the war progressed while defying all strategic predictions, it created space for India to carve a more independent approach toward its ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Modi’s Ukraine visit and his show of solidarity with the loss of human life in the nation have pushed this de-hyphenation to the foreground.
Essentially, this underscores New Delhi’s strategic autonomy to pursue standalone ties with both Kyiv and Moscow because of genuine national interests.
Additionally, at the global level, this de-hyphenation enables India to play an authentic role as a bridge between two sides, as a party committed to peace and human-centric reconstruction. It also makes India’s relay of messaging between the warring sides more egalitarian and substantiates the country’s “vishwabandhu” aspiration.
Second, it is about national interests. Apart from those with direct involvement in the defence procurement sector, not many in India acknowledged the value of India-Ukraine technical military cooperation. Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union during the decades that embedded India-Soviet defence cooperation in a deep embrace. Post its independence, it continued playing an important role as the supplier of gas turbine engines for India’s frontline warships and aircraft, including Russian helicopters from the olden times.
Indian defence experts have always lauded the doggedness and sturdiness of Ukrainian engines and the criticality of that supply chain. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine-Russia relations grew tense, India sourced gas turbine engines from Kyiv and sent them to Moscow, where Indian warships were being manufactured.
Similarly, Ukraine was helping India modernise its huge ageing fleet of over a hundred An-32 military transport aircraft. A piece of fairly important news at the beginning of the year never found traction. Bharat Forge acquired a majority stake in the Indian arm of Ukrainian firm Zorya-Mashproekt, which specialises in gas and turbine construction and produces 130 engines for 20 Indian front-line warships.
Zorya happens to be one of the three main Ukrainian defence companies – along with the Antonov design bureau – that have been modernising our An-32 fleet. Apart from this, there is Motor Sich (plus another Ukrainian design house Ivachenko), which provides maintenance for our aero-engines.
For the Indian Navy, especially, this dependence will continue for another two decades unless all our warship engine platforms are changed.
Apart from technical defence industry cooperation, which has continued, though with details classified, it can be expected that Ukrainian defence companies will continue having a presence in India.
The Indian side will also be eager to study the stupendous evolution of drone warfare and the communitisation of the war effort in Ukraine for mass producing cheap drones—for air and sea use, as well as those enabled with AI alongside the evolution of electronic warfare capabilities and radar-proofing techniques.
In the joint statement, there is a mention of continuing defence cooperation between Kyiv and New Delhi, although the details have been understandably withheld.
Third, it is about the underscoring of India’s reconstruction efforts. Substantiating India’s claims as an active peace-builder, not a disinterested bystander, is New Delhi’s unflinching commitment to providing humanitarian aid to the war-torn country.
For the record, India has already sent about 17 consignments of aid along with 10 generator sets and several consignments of portable medical units called BHISHM (Bharat Health Initiative for Sahyog Hita & Maitri) cubes. But that’s not all.
As per the joint statement, India will also be keen to invest in the reconstruction of Ukraine when the time is right. Whether India prefers to go solo or along with the European collaborative effort, remains to be seen. The cost of rebuilding Ukraine is expected to be more than $500 billion. However, exploring the viability of development mechanisms such as lines of credit or triangular cooperation with third countries is a relevant discussion to have.
India’s role in Ukraine’s reconstruction also substantiates New Delhi’s commitment to pro-people’s peace, a sentiment that was echoed repeatedly by Modi’s statements, gestures and earnest assurances in his seven-hour stay in Kyiv.
Fourth, the above connects to India’s evolving neutrality in the war. On one hand, neutrality has been the sine qua non of India’s response to the Russia-Ukraine war. On the other, Modi surprised the world by stating that India is not neutral. Of course, while he meant to indicate India’s commitment to peace, these statements also throw open in the country’s strategic circles a reassessment of neutrality in the bloody war of grinding attrition.
New Delhi’s neutrality is a break away from its ‘legacy-apathy’ days and entails an active and evolving facet. A facet that is resilient and responsible, open to reset and readjusting so that the end goal of peace is achieved.
That is the quintessence of India’s pitch to “innovative solutions”, which require an out-of-the-box approach where resilience is paramount.
Modi’s assertion should also serve as a clarification to naysayers who have belittled India’s momentous efforts to restore peace and offer dialogue in a very complex situation.
Even if India’s ability to bring the war to an end remains limited, the several Ukrainian delegations to the nation in the last two years – including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s – have always upheld the role that India can play in restoring peace.
Five, PM Modi’s historic visit is historic for creating a space for a renewed engagement with regional Europe. These endeavours will augment the role New Delhi played in stabilising not only the first conventional all-out war of the 21st century but also the broader outreach and effort to stabilise the European security and economic order.
Let’s not forget that New Delhi’s reconstruction efforts in Kyiv might allow Ukraine to become India’s strategic gateway to the European Union.
Europe would be happy to utilise cheap Indian labour that can adhere to its standards. Indian investments in the pharmaceutical industry would be welcome too. Back home, the export of labour, especially skilled labour, would appeal to our government as well.
Also read: Modi’s Poland visit shows India has moved beyond Europe’s ‘big four’ nations
De-hyphenation is not dissociation
If Prime Minister Modi’s Poland visit showed that India has moved beyond the big four countries of Europe, his visit to Ukraine showed that India is de-hyphenating ties with Russia and Ukraine. Now, these bilateral relations stand on their own, as they should, steered by national interest and commitment to India’s vision of a just world order.
These dynamics will not bring the war to an immediate end but will have strategic, economic, and geopolitical implications in the times to come.
The interconnectedness of issues that New Delhi responds to with fervour, strategic pragmatism and resilience now will go a long way in shaping the contours of India’s rise in a very uncertain world.
The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
Well written. But author has not taken into account important aspects of present day Ukraine. It is not the same Ukraine what appeared post break up of USSR. It is a typical client state of USA. Ukraine is virtually run by White House through the US Embassy in Kiev since 2014, to be correct since the US financed Maidan in kiev and US instigated coup. So without US support it is hardly possible for India to get any Ukrainian project. Also very important fact Ukrainian defence and aircraft industry is deeply inter-connected with the Russian industries and so how much they would be able to fulfill their commitment to India is questionable in the current scenario. Another very important factor is that the Ukrainian engineering, defence and hi-tech scientific industry is mostly run and supervised by East Ukrainians, i.e. Russian speaking Ukrainians. West Ukrainians, i.e. Ukrainian speaking are mostly into agriculture. And Western / NATO backed Ukrainian propaganda is very far from ground reality.