Is India getting into an increasing confrontation with the West? Is Delhi beginning to take sides in the New Cold War brewing between the East and West over Ukraine? And is that why a worried America is fast-forwarding an ambassador to India?
Moreover, what does Japan’s decision to buy oil from Russia do to the US-led solidarity over Ukraine?
But first things first. Speaking at an interaction in Bengaluru over the weekend, organised by BJP MPs Tejaswi Surya and PC Mohan, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar said the “West has a bad habit of commenting on others.”
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Jaishankar and the BJP line
It’s worth quoting what he said in full: “They somehow think it is some kind of God-given right. They will have to learn only by experience that if you keep doing this, other people will also start commenting and they will not like it when it happens. And I see that happening,” Jaishankar said.
The minister was commenting on remarks by spokespersons of the US and Germany over Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification as an MP by a Surat court – in response to which, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor and chairman of the External Affairs Standing Committee in Parliament commented that he wants to tell “my friend Jai to cool it a bit”. It came as a bit of a surprise that the very suave and sophisticated minister was showing some thin skin.
Of course, Jaishankar is no longer only a suave and sophisticated diplomat but a card-carrying member of the BJP, elected from Gujarat no less, and therefore must follow the party line. Clearly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as he leads India and the G20, is upset that Western criticism of India’s actions still continues — remember that four years have passed since the 2019 revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.
That’s the puzzling question. Why is Modi, who is leading an arguably self-confident India — despite the recent terror of Covid, a slowing economy, three years of unresolved conflict with China on its border, a Middle Path policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and enormous domestic appreciation — smarting over some half-critical statements by two Western nations and a handful of people?
Some analysts are beginning to say that a new Cold War is on the horizon and India is smack in the middle of the game. They are, of course, talking about India’s refusal to outright criticise Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – for them, Modi’s statement criticising the act of war anywhere and India’s several abstentions in the UNSC on the matter when it was a non-permanent member these last two years is not enough.
These analysts believe that India is being pusillanimous and not standing up to the moral values it has always espoused as an ancient civilisation – which is a bit rich, considering they have always considered themselves hard-core realists in the pursuit of national interest that is shorn of sentiment.
Well, in this case, it is easy to see that India’s national interest is squarely in its own corner. Which means that India’s need to buy cheap oil – at last count, India’s energy purchases have touched $39.8 billion, becoming one of Russia’s five top trading partners in the absence of sharply reduced Russia-West trade – to shore up its economy and keep 1.4 billion people on the safe side, overwhelms the moral argument to rap Vladimir Putin on his knuckles by criticising the invasion of Ukraine.
But it seems as if India’s expanding trade with Russia – led by oil as well as more recently a deal to manufacture metro trains in India – is continuing to bother the Americans. The matter, it is believed, came up again in the Trilateral Commission meeting that took place only a couple of weeks ago in Delhi, when influential members of the western club wanted to know why India, a “natural ally” of the US, was not supporting the US-led solidarity with Ukraine.
And now that Japan has broken from this united front by telling the Americans that it has to buy oil from Russia to shore up its own economy – and what is worse, Tokyo has decided to breach the $60-a-barrel cap imposed by its closest ally, the US — what happens?
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A new messaging from India
Certainly, Americans have come a long way over the last year. They have finally understood – and Jaishankar, to his credit, has pointed this out again and again – that there is no point criticising India in public. So the criticism has moved indoors, like in the Trilateral Commission.
Delhi can argue that Democrat governments are far harsher than Republican governments – that is an undisputed fact. But what is also happening today in this age of social media and highly polarised politics is that the foreign media, like during the bad old days of the Cold War, is once again being seen as the hand-maidens of their governments in the West.
Of course, Delhi should know better. Prime Minister Modi, even as chief minister of Gujarat, has travelled widely across the world and is said to be curious about new things – especially, technology. Jaishankar has been a part of India’s indefatigable diplomatic corps, which understands both the West and the East, while NSA Ajit Doval rubs shoulders with some of the best minds in the world.
Certainly, there’s no need for this brewing discomfort between India and the West – everyone understands what’s going on. Delhi and DC should talk – there’s no more important relationship – but DC should also understand Delhi’s compulsions. The man nominated to be US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, has his task cut out when he arrives in Delhi soon.
As for the Russia-Ukraine crisis, both Russia and the US should move towards ending their proxy war – it is truly bothersome that Global South issues like health and education and the reduction of poverty have taken a back seat. Putin is coming to the G20 summit in Delhi in September and so is Biden. Perhaps they can do Modi and the rest of the G20 the courtesy of not letting their egos hijack the world agenda?
And here’s a bitter truth that both the US and Russia must realise, if they don’t already – when they squabble, guess who’s the real victor? China.
Jyoti Malhotra is a senior consulting editor at ThePrint. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)