US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is coming to India next week ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 22 June State visit to America. US defence minister Lloyd Austin has just left Delhi after finalising a jet engine deal that has been in the works for a decade or so. This comes after a US State department spokesperson lavished praise on India’s “vibrant democracy” despite a Congress-mandated state of religious freedoms report having castigated the BJP and RSS for targeting minorities barely a month ago.
So why has a Democrat administration – this one led by Joe Biden – decided to zip its mouth and swallow its criticism about human rights violations in Jammu & Kashmir, its concerns about the shrinking space for dissent under the BJP government and its unhappiness about India continuing to buy Russian oil, which in turn finds its way into Europe?
After all, you cannot host a summit of the world’s largest economies in the G-20 and continue to ignore distraught champion wrestlers who have accused a BJP MP of sexual harassment.
The world is watching, for sure, but has decided to hold off public criticism for the moment. In any case, governments don’t criticise other governments – that would constitute a new low in the relationship between two countries. But the rest of the world is definitely watching and reading statements by the International Olympic Committee and the United World Wrestling telling India off over its refusal to take action against a BJP leader. It tells you something about the BJP, its top leadership, and how lightly they take the charges of sexual harassment. This, when a summit of the world’s most powerful leaders is round the corner in September in Delhi.
So why is the leader of the most powerful nation, the US, holding its tongue over India? One word. China.
Also read: Why Western charm offensive for Modi is proof of PM walking foreign policy middle path
US has realised India’s importance
The US has realised that only India can possibly contain China – its chief international enemy that will soon overtake it as the world’s largest economy. Even though India’s economy is five times smaller than China, it can be packaged as part of a group of similar smaller economies led by the US – called the Quad – that can become a serious challenger to China’s ambitions.
It helps the US argument back home – Biden can explain the granular detail to those accusing him of getting too close to Modi – that Chinese troops have been eyeball-to-eyeball with Indian troops for the last three years, that they seriously have Indians worried because the latter can no longer patrol territories they used to until 2019. Moreover, no one knows what China’s intentions are.
Modi’s likely return to power is another reason why the US is pulling out the carpet of a State visit, plus a private dinner the evening before the Indian PM arrives in Washington DC after participating in an International Yoga Day event in New York. It isn’t clear yet whether Biden will join Modi at the Indian diaspora event, like Australian PM Anthony Albanese did last month in Sydney and as Donald Trump did in 2019; Democrats wouldn’t have forgotten how Modi converted the “Howdy, Modi” event in Houston into an election rally for the Republican leader.
Also read: Why India’s border standoff with China reveals Modi weakness. It’s the economy, stupid
India must maintain ties with US
There are several reasons why Modi must push for a closer relationship with the US, although not at the cost of becoming a camp follower. India is too large, too diverse and has too many balls in the air with several countries – including Namibia, which External Affairs minister S Jaishankar recently visited and underlined the importance of its cheetahs to India’s larger wildlife policy – to scrupulously follow one nation, even if it is so powerful.
Still, the advantages are obvious. When India and the US are seen to be close, as they were in the run-up to the 2008 nuclear deal and after, the Chinese were forced to do a rethink on several counts, including on its disputed border with India. In fact, in 2005, India and China signed an agreement on “guiding principles” to settle the border issue. But as China grew stronger, it reneged on its intentions to hold those border conversations with India. So having the US looking over your shoulder in support is never a bad thing.
Second, the US is the only country in the world that can still persuade its top businesspeople to invest in India. It will take years for US businesses to mitigate the value chains that have been established with Chinese industry, but make no mistake: Apple’s interest in India is a political message to Communist Beijing that it’s time to read the tea leaves – never mind that more iPhones are sold in China than in India. Remember, too, that Apple’s $24 billion profit in the first quarter of this year is probably larger than the GDP of a small nation. Underestimating America would do no one any good.
Third, as the noted strategic affairs analyst, C Raja Mohan points out in this article for The Indian Express, the Indian ship may have already sailed from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific – that “official Delhi will continue to adapt, (even as) foreign policy discourse lags behind.” While you and I debate the pros and cons of aligning with one power or the virtues of multi-polarity, Modi’s Delhi may have already lobbed the ball in America’s court.
And that’s the argument of this article. A huge foreign policy shift is likely taking place deep in the bowels of India’s decision-making apparatus. A few wrinkles remain to be ironed out – like defence minister Rajnath Singh’s plea to Austin that the US should drop its objections to transferring technology of the defence weapons it wants to sell to India.
Will the US listen and transfer technology after the sale-purchase of some initial defence equipment that India can, over time, Make in India? Will India demur if the US doesn’t? Is this more than just about sophisticated weaponry or is it about a shift in strategic thinking, the place that India wants to occupy in the world?
Modi’s upcoming visit to the US is probably the perfect place to start a debate on the subject: What place does India see for itself in this brave new world that is upon us? Will India abandon its traditional “multi-polar” posture and become a camp-follower of the US?
Jyoti Malhotra is a senior consulting editor at ThePrint. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)