China has conveyed its support for a potential arms deal between North Korea and Russia, making Kim Jong Un’s visit to the country a much-watched affair.
Chinese President Xi Jinping had sent senior official Liu Guozhong to North Korea to convey its approval of the deal before Kim set off for his six-day visit to Russia.
Beijing has had concerns about North Korea’s regional ambitions, as the Pyongyang establishment isn’t always aligned with Beijing’s agenda. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers the diplomatic dance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim permissible but wants a say in how far this relationship can go.
“I will always be standing with Russia,” said Kim while meeting Putin in Vladivostok.
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New Northeast-Asia axis
In August 2023, the United States claimed that Russia was trying to strike an arms deal with North Korea to bolster its war in Ukraine. Washington repeated the assertion at the United Nations alongside allies Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.
On 18 September, Kim’s special train returned to North Korea, and he was greeted by a huge crowd at the Pyongyang railway station the following day, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
As China’s relations with the US remain highly strained, Beijing finds it helpful to have North Korea sell weapons to the Kremlin. It can achieve a regional geopolitical objective — check the US’ alliance with South Korea. To meet that end, China has sent high-level delegations in the past months as well to convey its support for the direction of Russia-North Korea ties.
But approval for North Korea’s deal doesn’t mean Beijing wants to give free rein to Pyongyang. The CCP may temper some of the overtures between Putin and Kim. China has likely given tacit approval to North Korea to sell weapons to Russia but without appearing to directly support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
In the recent past, China has rebuffed some of North Korea’s requests to Pyongyang supply military technology for its weapons programmes. But in the current geopolitical context, with the US becoming more actively involved in South Korea, Beijing feels confident to allow a weapons deal with Kim and Putin.
At the Eastern Economic Forum on 10 September, though, Beijing kept a close eye on Putin’s overtures toward Kim.
Furthermore, the implications of this meeting extend beyond mere military cooperation, as it also highlights the evolving dynamics of international alliances. The growing ties between North Korea and Russia could reshape the geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia.
Another important signal from Kim’s Russia visit was the location where he met Putin. The two leaders met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, where they toured the assembly and launch facilities, confirming the speculation that North Korea has sought Russia’s help with its space mission. Space awareness programmes can help North Korea’s missile plans and other military ambitions the Pyongyang establishment has been preparing for a while.
“The leader of North Korea shows great interest in space, in rocketry, and they are trying to develop space. We’ll show our new objects,” Putin told reporters at the Vostochny Cosmodrome.
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Can North Korea help Russia?
Some experts have said that North Korea has limited ability to fill the gap Moscow now faces in continuing the Ukraine war. Even the gains for the North Korean economy may be fairly limited.
“Gains will, however, be limited by the military industry’s isolated position in the economic structure,” wrote North Korea expert Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, commenting on what Pyongyang may get from selling arms to the Kremlin.
The broader collaboration between Russia and North Korea, though, is creating a new Northeast-Asia axis, which the Kremlin would be happy to further in the current geopolitical context.
Meanwhile, Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, was in Moscow on Tuesday for the 18th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation. Though the readout said that both sides agreed to “strengthen cooperation in law enforcement security, non-proliferation, and the global governance of emerging science and technology”, we can’t deny that North Korea could have been a topic of discussion between the two sides.
Russia’s arms deal with North Korea also means that the Kremlin is running out of good options to continue fighting. For New Delhi, this should come as a matter of concern as Russia’s depleting ability to service its military doesn’t bode well for the Indian Army’s continued reliance on Moscow for weapons. The Kremlin’s ability to chase bad ideas has been increasingly on display since the beginning of the Ukraine war.
We don’t need to blow the Russia-North Korea axis out of proportion, but China’s preferences on the issue will certainly set the tone for the evolution of this relationship.
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)