The Munich Security Index 2024 has unveiled some compelling insights, notably indicating that Western populations are more concerned about issues like climate change rather than the perceived threat posed by China and Russia.
Additionally, the index has pointed to a shift in China’s perspective, which now views all countries except Russia and Belarus as “more threatening than last year”. This finding is particularly noteworthy given the deepening relationship between China and Russia since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. As Russia faced diplomatic backlash and even traditionally friendly countries like India adopted a neutral stance, Beijing maintained unwavering support for Moscow, aligning closely with its positions.
It has now become customary for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to exchange pleasantries on festive occasions.
On New Year’s Eve, Xi exchanged greetings with Putin and emphasised the resilience and stability of China-Russia relations, affirming their continued positive trajectory. More recently, at the onset of the Year of the Dragon last week, Xi, on a call with Putin, reiterated the strength of the China-Russia partnership in withstanding past tests. He highlighted the need for both sides to “strengthen strategic coordination, safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests,” while also opposing “external interference” (a clear reference to the US) in their “internal affairs”.
In a widely discussed and shared interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson, Putin referred to Xi as his “colleague and friend”. Furthermore, he emphasised that “the West is more fearful of a strong China than it is of a strong Russia”. The remark was dissected in a viral post on Weibo, which suggested that it implies one cannot defeat Russia given China’s strength and support. Additionally, it hinted that engaging with Russia has inadvertently strengthened China’s position – implying the win-win nature of the China-Russia relationship.
China exploiting Russia-Ukraine war
Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the West’s collective disdain for Putin, China has seized the opportunity to exploit the situation. Xi has consistently leveraged China’s partnership with Russia to signal to the West that several (non-Western) countries share his outlook on Western interference in Beijing’s internal matters. Russia was among the very few countries Xi visited after the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, reports indicate that Putin is once again expected to visit Beijing this year.
China has been reiterating its steadfast support for Russia in the face of Western defiance. Chinese firms have played a significant role in helping Russia evade Western sanctions, now prompting the European Union to consider imposing sanctions on Chinese entities assisting Russia.
Consequently, Russia has increasingly become a puppet of China. It not only aligns with and defends China’s interests but has also assumed a subordinate role in the relationship. Beyond Western criticism, China could potentially reference Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to justify its actions should it choose to invade Taiwan. The narrative of Western provocation and interference is a shared one, propagated by both China and Russia.
In recent times, China has reaped tangible benefits from its growing ties with Russia, particularly as the latter faced isolation and sanctions from the West. This camaraderie has led to a significant surge in China-Russia trade, which touched the $190 billion mark in 2022.
Expectedly, a considerable portion of this boom in trade can be attributed to the increased energy exports to China, with Russia now supplying approximately 2 million barrels of oil per day. During Putin’s visit to China in February 2022, just a few weeks before the invasion, Russia’s Gazprom signed a 30-year contract with the China National Petroleum Corporation, ensuring the provision of 10 billion cubic metres of gas annually to China through a new pipeline originating from the Russian island of Sakhalin.
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The China-Russia threat
In terms of hard security issues, the China-Russia partnership remains a persistent threat to the West. Both countries have actively crafted a narrative that highlights Western attempts to counter and undermine them, particularly finding receptive audiences in the ‘Global South’. However, what is even more alarming is the unwavering cooperation and collaboration between the two countries. Their military cooperation, alongside sophisticated influence operations, presents a formidable challenge.
While like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region initially came together to address challenges posed by China’s aggression, the effectiveness of the collective efforts is proving to be less impactful.
Additionally, the compounded threat of China and Russia is becoming increasingly alarming for the United States and the rest of the West. Several countries’ divergent perceptions and approaches toward China, and now Russia, further complicate the situation. Despite this, there is a noticeable disparity between the perceived threat and the efforts to address it, suggesting a concerning underestimation of the severity of the growing China-Russia partnership.
Sana Hashmi, PhD, is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)