The ‘ceasefire’ between India and Pakistan was as sudden as Operation Sindoor itself. While American President Donald Trump hurriedly claimed credit for it, New Delhi denied his ‘efforts’ to broker peace between the two nations. A serious question, therefore, persists: Why did India agree to an abrupt cessation of military action after achieving clear success?
Three aspects of the ‘unwritten and orally accepted ceasefire’ are especially intriguing. First, a ceasefire is seldom an abrupt agreement. It is typically negotiated by two conflicting sides, or mediated by a third at the behest of one of the parties. Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described it as just a “pause in military action”, would it be correct to presume that there is no ceasefire at all, at least from the Indian side? This makes Donald Trump’s claims even more doubtful.
The second intriguing aspect is the duration and durability of the so-called ceasefire, especially when there is no clarity on the conditions. Prime Minister Modi has declared that “Operation Sindoor is the new normal for India now”, adding that “India has drawn a clear Lakshman Rekha against terrorism”. This means that, in the event of another terror attack, the retributive action against Pakistan will be even more severe than what it experienced in the first phase of Operation Sindoor. Does the American President command so much authority over Pakistan that he can actually prevent its wayward army and non-state operatives from undertaking another misadventure like Pahalgam? The sooner the White House clarifies its perceived hold over Islamabad, the better it is for India’s relations with the United States.
The third and more important factor is Trump’s reference to Kashmir while claiming credit for the cessation of hostilities, portraying the conflict as a mere continuation of the Kashmir issue. India has swiftly – and rightly – denied the acceptance of a third party’s intervention in the bilateral parleys between India and Pakistan on Kashmir related matters. In any case, the only pending issue vis-à-vis Kashmir is the return of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) to India.
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Cripple Pakistan Army
The popular expectation this time was that the Modi government would make a long-term plan for PoK and resolve the issue once and for all in favour of India. But the Trump administration threw the spanner in the works with its claims of brokering a ceasefire. Prime Minister Modi in his address to the nation, however, made some things clear to the global community: If there are talks with Pakistan, they will only be on terrorism or PoK.
Terrorism, army, non-state actors, and the political establishment in Pakistan have become inseparable. They support one another in their anti-India tirade and cannot overrule the diktats of the most powerful entity among them, the Pakistan Army. Unless the Pakistan Army is completely crippled, terrorism from across the border won’t stop.
If Washington and the rest of the members of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) think that an economic bailout at this juncture would nudge Islamabad toward peace and progress, they are living in fool’s paradise. Sooner rather than later, they will see the rogue state’s true colours.
On 19 April 2011, Pakistan conducted the first test flight of the Hatf-IX (NASR) missile. According to a 2013 report released by the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) and authored by Rajaram Nagappa, Pakistan has conducted three tests of the missile system. And each time, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) put out identical press statements stressing that the “missile has been developed to add deterrence value to Pakistan’s Strategic Weapons Development programme at shorter ranges.” India needs to impress upon the global community the need to permanently end this arms development programme, especially the nuclear part of it. Incidentally, India’s recent military action has proved that it is technologically capable of doing so without any support from the global community. Hopefully, the Trump administration has taken note.
India’s ‘pause’ on military action, however, cannot be long. Terrorists and their masters are known to utilise such periods to regroup and sharpen their tools instead of burying the hatchet. Trump should realise this as well.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
To whom is Mr. Chari addressing the title? And for whom is his sub-title meant?
Typical language which is a hallmark of the Sangh! It runs through the entire course of the article.
They refuse and deny being any part of the show. Yet, they run the show, and don and discard parts that suit them for the moment. While reprimanding and denouncing the paying, suffering audience.
That’s how they unscrupulously wield and enjoy power despite owning no responsibility, and offering no accountability.
Towards the end, Mr. Chari writes: “Hopefully, the Trump administration has taken note.”
Yes, all finally comes down to that.
Mr. Chari’s uncouth, foul-mouthed party and government…untrained, uncaring, and vicious that they are…have been pissing all over us. And worse.
We can only hope that now Mr. Trump too does not add his own to the same.
Lord Shiva! Please make some more space in your thoat for this deadlier poison that has emerged, and which is destroying not just the country, but very Dharma itself.
The last rung up the escalatory ladder involves use of nuclear weapons. This is not something either side would contemplate doing lightly. But at some stage that threshold is bound to be breached. Honestly, one feels very apprehensive in a situation where the process of dialogue and diplomacy has broken down completely, it is only the guns that will do all the talking. The wise words of former COAS General Naravane, War is not a Bollywood movie, it should be the last option, not the first. When there is no diplomacy, sometimes war can become the ONLY option.