The success of BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election is different from the 2014 and 2019 polls. The party was unable to produce any decisive political narratives. The ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ slogan was offered as a template to repackage the elements of welfarism, Hindutva, and development. This repackaging was weak and uninspiring. It’s one of the reasons why the Congress manifesto eventually became an intellectual challenge for the BJP. The party leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, redesigned the electoral campaign to focus on the Congress manifesto, especially after the first phase of polling. The BJP’s success, thus, is an outcome of its political professionalism, which eventually helped the party to convert its political weaknesses into electoral gains.
The Opposition, on the other hand, cannot be called a loser either. The INDIA alliance has performed remarkably well, even though it could not get the desired number. The Opposition was successful in setting the terms of political discourse for the first time in the last 10 years. Even the BJP had to respond to the questions of social justice and economic inequalities, which were highlighted by the Opposition as key thematic concerns.
Three factors played a significant role in determining these complex electoral outcomes. These factors don’t merely underline the actual causes that led to the NDA’s success but also introduce us to the structural configuration of emerging Indian polity.
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Nature of the coalition
There is a serious difference between the NDA and the INDIA alliance. In the NDA, the BJP enjoys absolute authority as the dominant partner. The party not only determines the seat-sharing negotiations but also provides logistical support to state-level parties. Not all partners of NDA share BJP’s ideological position. However, they do not exaggerate these differences. They always adhere to a ‘Modi-centric’ narrative. This is exactly what happened in this election. The NDA as a coalition behaved like a coherent political entity.
The INDIA alliance, on the contrary, is a different formation. The Congress is the main national-level player in this coalition. However, the party could not impose its dominance over the other players. For example, the Congress had seat-sharing arrangements with AAP in Gujarat, Haryana, and Delhi; while they were fighting against each other in Punjab. This kind of seat-sharing arrangement seems to work for the coalition in some states. However, this interest-centric approach eventually affected the credibility of the coalition. This shows that, so far, the INDIA alliance has been an outcome of political compulsions. The CSDS-Lokniti Pre-Poll survey, conducted just before the election, also noticed that people at the grassroots level were apprehensive about the seriousness of the INDIA alliance.
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Electoral approach
BJP adopted a highly flexible approach during the campaign. BJP manifesto underplayed the Ram temple issue, and, for that matter, the Hindutva agenda. However, the party establishment decided to alter its electoral strategy very soon. It tried to reach out to its core Hindutva voters after the first two phases. A clear anti-Muslim rhetoric was used to create an impression that the party was only interested in Hindu consolidation. But this politics of religious polarisation was played in a strategic manner. Prime Minister Modi made a series of positive remarks about his personal association with Muslims in almost all the interviews he gave. Yet, the party continued to attack the Opposition for Muslim appeasement, especially in relation to the reservation debate. In both cases, the centrality of political messaging remained intact and electorally persuasive.
This strategic use of religion as a political idiom posed a serious challenge to the Opposition. For example, the Congress, which came out with a remarkably researched manifesto this time, found it difficult to take a clear position on anti-Muslim rhetoric. While Congress leaders did make a few critical remarks about BJP’s use of religion in politics, they were unable to take any principled position on Muslim presence and the demonisation of the community in the public sphere. The rest of the INDIA alliance parties too failed to clarify their social justice politics during the campaign. Its success, in this sense, should be attributed to the anti-BJP feelings overtly expressed by the voters in many constituencies, especially in Hindi-speaking states.
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Professionalism
BJP’s electoral professionalism has helped the party in a significant manner this time. Two key aspects of this professional attitude need to be underlined. The party adhered to its stated principle of winnability. It adopted a very carefully designed ticket distribution system. CSDS-Lokniti data analysis shows that the party gave tickets to only 167 sitting MPs from the same constituency. It also found that the margin of victory in the 2019 election was not used as a criterion for ticket distribution. This professional method helped the party to focus on the constituency-level winning configuration. Secondly, the idea of winnability was also used to make strategic alliances at the state level. This has made NDA a more stable and powerful coalition.
The Opposition, of course, did not have this kind of professional attitude. Yet, it tried to do some serious experiments. It is worth noting that Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatras were able to sensitise grassroots-level politics in a significant way. In a way, this initiative played a crucial role in affecting popular perceptions. The impressive victory of Congress in this election underlines the fact that the party has reached out to grassroots-level voters in a professional manner.
It is too early to make any conclusive observations about the future direction of Indian politics. However, one can argue with full confidence that the 2024 Lok Sabha election has led us to a new era of democratic politics.
Hilal Ahmed is a scholar of political Islam and associate professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), New Delhi. He tweets @Ahmed1Hilal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Theres Sudeep)