scorecardresearch
Friday, March 29, 2024
Support Our Journalism
HomeOpinionChina’s eye is on Russia, India must decide how much it can...

China’s eye is on Russia, India must decide how much it can depend on Putin

China’s alternate world order only works with a diminished Russia, not a defeated one.

Follow Us :
Text Size:

Today marks one year since the war in Ukraine began. One of the most watched responses to the Russia-Ukraine crisis has been that of Xi Jinping’s China. At the Munich Security Conference Sunday, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken gravely stated that China could supply “lethal help” to Russia, a claim Beijing denies. The statement triggered a series of assorted responses from the strategic community the world over. But what is China’s actual plan?

Before coming to China’s overtures, a dramatic set of events followed in the buildup to the first anniversary of the war that once again underscores geopolitical fault lines

The week began with the President of the United States, Joe Biden’s unexpected visit to Kyiv. Amid wailing air sirens, he reaffirmed US’s commitment to helping Ukraine in a pitch-perfect speech.

A day later, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Russia’s National Assembly, once again sabre-rattling nuclear escalation by suspending the New START — Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty — with the US. A few hours later, he was pictured with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi in an unusually proximate setting in the Kremlin. Moscow was the final stop in Wang’s Europe tour.

These two images — Biden with Zelensky and Wang with Putin — sum up the bifurcated geopolitical solidarities on the first anniversary of the war which shows no signs of abating in its second year.

Wang’s timing was unmissable and has amplified the gravity of Blinken’s statement on Beijing’s alleged plans.

It has been perceived with caution by an assiduously ‘neutral’ New Delhi as well.

Understandably for India, China’s role in the Ukraine conflict and its support to Russia or lack thereof is a major factor in how New Delhi gauges its own ties with Moscow.

The reason is simple — India is assessing the efficacy of its ties with Russia in managing the regional order around the rise of China and the unsettled border with its arch-rival. A weakened Russia getting too close to China would defeat India’s strategic calculus.


Also Read: How far will China go to help Russia? Xi’s in no mind to prioritise Moscow’s economic woes


China’s ill-timed wooing of Europe

Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, recently promoted as a top foreign policy advisor to Xi, had been sent on a tour to Europe to mend China’s broken ties with the bloc and for necessary groundwork for French President Emmanuel Macron’s and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s upcoming visits to Beijing.

China’s ties with Europe are far from steady despite humongous trade volumes. The ambitious trade and investment deal between the two regions has been stuck for almost 10 years over human rights concerns. China has been blocked out of the EU on sensitive technologies such as 5G. Beijing’s coercive economic statecraft has been met with a diffident EU-wide anti-coercion instrument following an ugly spat between Lithuania and China over Taiwan. Chinese Confucius institutes are also eyed with mistrust almost all over Europe.

China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and endorsing the Russian narrative of victimisation has only added to the further fraying of ties.  The EU is not a partner that China can afford to remain complacent about, especially as the latter’s ties with the US have hit an all-time low.

In a noticeable shift from an erstwhile ‘wolf warrior’ stance, the resumption of talks on the human rights front is a good example of China’s efforts to court the EU.

But Wang Yi’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine and failure to grasp Europe’s security concerns struck the wrong chords in Munich. In the context of the Ukraine war, with transatlantic solidarity running high, the seasoned Chinese diplomat seems to have misread the sanctity of how Russia’s war has united opinions, actors and statecraft across the Atlantic.


Also Read: Israel is neutral on Ukraine for three reasons. India can align with it to ease tensions


Beijing’s duplicitous posturing on Russia is getting strained

On the one hand is China’s official neutral stand and refusal to send military aid to Russia, so far, for the sake of safeguarding its economic interests. On the other hand, is its manoeuvring to save Russia from defeat.

Russia is the only potent-enough power in Beijing’s plan of an alternate world order that is capable of calling global shots. The others — North Korea, Cambodia, Iran and to some extent Pakistan — are all pariahs in their own ways. From China’s perspective, it is optimal that Russia remains a junior partner, a second fiddle to Beijing’s aspirations. But a Russia that is defeated and weakened is not of much use to China’s covert ambitions of dominating the world.

How exactly can China help Russia?

China can help Russia in broadly three ways apart from the gargantuan imports of heavily discounted Russian crude.

One, it could send munition and military aid at the cost of triggering secondary sanctions on itself. As both sides of the war are in dire need of ammunition, China could choose to cross the red line and send military aid to its friend with no limits. The costs of it, however, are disproportionately high for Beijing.

Most of Beijing’s trade is with the US and the EU. A dent there would shake up the Chinese Communist Party, especially when the overstretched Covid restrictions have just been lifted and CCP officials have been welcoming foreign investments at international forums.

Two, it could try mediating a peace plan to bring the war to a ceasefire or an end. However, Chinese credibility is extremely low with Ukraine and the West and this limits its role as a self-professed mediator.

And three, it could drive a wedge between the pro-China regime in Hungary and the rest of the EU and impede the bloc’s capacity to impose further sanctions on Russia. To dilute the stringent impact of already in-place sanctions, China could help Russia in circumventing those through quasi-corporate contracts.

China seems to be keen on the third option as Wang decided to skip Brussels and instead used Hungary as the entry point to access Europe.

China has also had some success with fuelling disruptions in the EU. It is now known that thanks to Hungary, the EU 27 could not agree to a blackout on Russia over nuclear energy. Furthermore, a fresh tranche of anniversary sanctions slated for 24 February is not yet agreed upon either.

However, this smart management is unlikely to change the perception that China is backing Russia.

Additionally, a war in Europe is not in China’s economic interest. It must be remembered that economic interests are the fulcrum of China’s statecraft and influence in the world today. War brings instability, chaos, economic disruption and commotion — all of which are unconducive to Chinese business interests and investments in the region. Since China’s new silk road dream was already getting clobbered in many European countries, the added stress of the protracted war in Ukraine is certainly a dampener.


Also Read: Who will pay the bill for rebuilding Ukraine? The answer lies in unfreezing Russian assets


Bifurcations in the global system

While the war in Ukraine is indeed an inflection point for the bifurcation of the geopolitical world order between democratic and autocratic statecraft, that bifurcation is yet to be seen in the enmeshed economic interests of the major players. In other words, the geo-economic bifurcation and decoupling might follow the footsteps of geopolitical bifurcation as trade transcends the era of cowboy capitalism and inches towards trusted connections with resilient economic structures and perhaps a new energy map as well.

It could be the beginning of the end of how neoliberal principles guide global trade.

But as we stand today in the second year of the war, it is still a far cry.

It is not China’s recent and ill-designed courting of anxious Europeans, but its deft posturing within the developing world that merits attention.

Where China actually succeeds in a clever projection of itself as a part of the developing world and especially as a partner to the Global South. New Delhi needs to watch out for this.

The Ukraine war has unleashed a truly intersectional global moment for India’s statecraft. Remaining neutral has given India the credibility to emerge as the voice of the Global South, harnessing its international posturing as a long-standing democracy rooted in non-alignment. At the same time, the country is deepening and expanding its spectrum of cooperation with the West. That said, India remains Russia’s traditional friend and partner.

China’s influence on Russia will decide how much India can depend on Russia in the longer run. As the war stretches on, India should explore the emerging channels of strategic cooperation drawing on its expanding geopolitical outreach and footprint. That would be a more potent way to restore balance in the Asian regional order.

The writer is an Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Center, at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.

(Edited by Theres Sudeep)

Subscribe to our channels on YouTube, Telegram & WhatsApp

Support Our Journalism

India needs fair, non-hyphenated and questioning journalism, packed with on-ground reporting. ThePrint – with exceptional reporters, columnists and editors – is doing just that.

Sustaining this needs support from wonderful readers like you.

Whether you live in India or overseas, you can take a paid subscription by clicking here.

Support Our Journalism

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Most Popular